Author: James Kwak

Remember Those Stress Tests?

I’m curious to know how banks’ 2009 final results compare to the projections in the stress tests. My suspicion is that JPMorgan and Goldman did better than projected, but Citi may have done worse. Ideally you would compare both the new loan losses recognized over the year and the profits from current operations. But there are a couple of problems with doing this. One is that the stress test results were for 2009-2010 combined, without the separate years split out. The other problem is that it’s not immediately obvious how to map the line items from the stress test results to the line items on a bank’s income statement (or to changes on its balance sheet). I might be able to figure it out with a lot of study, but I might not.

Does anyone know of someone who has already done an analysis along these lines? Or does anyone know how to do the mapping correctly?

By James Kwak

The Republican Plan, III: Comic Relief

(This is a multi-post series on the Republicans’ Roadmap for America’s Future. Part I was on how it slashes Medicare spending. Part II was on how it shifts risk from the government to individuals.)

The Roadmap brings up the issue that there is little price transparency in the health care market. This is the solution:

“The environment resembles what existed in the securities markets before the stock market crash of 1929. Abuse, fraud, and misinformation about the nature of stocks and the rules governing their purchase were rampant. In response, the Securities and Exchange Commission [SEC] was formed with the main purpose of bringing transparency to the market and restoring consumer confidence.

“With the increasingly rapid transformation of the financial markets and the growing complexity of financial transactions, the private sector began to take a more prominent role in developing accounting guidelines; and eventually the SEC began relying on the private sector to establish the basic standards by which it would be regulated. Since 1973, the SEC has recognized the nongovernment Financial Accounting Standards Board [FASB] as the authoritative standard-setting organization for financial accounting and reporting information. While the SEC has statutory authority to establish such financial standards, it has historically adopted FASB rules. The SEC allows the private sector to establish its own disclosure standards, so long as it demonstrates the ability to fulfill the responsibility in the public interest. The authority to enforce the standards, however, falls solely to the SEC.

“Applying this model to the health care industry will allow all stakeholders to come together, without heavy-handed government intervention, to establish uniform and reliable measures by which to report quality and price information.”

Enron? WorldCom? Self-regulation? FASB, the SEC, and the securities industry are their example?

By James Kwak

The Republican Plan, II: You’re On Your Own

In my previous post on the Roadmap for America’s Future, I discussed how the Republican plan is based on converting Medicare into a voucher program and then slashing the vouchers drastically relative to current Medicare spending projections, leaving seniors without the ability to buy anything close to what they get from Medicare today. In that post, I compared projected Medicare vouchers under the Roadmap to projected Medicare spending under current law. If you assume that, in the Roadmap world, the cost of Medicare-equivalent health insurance will be the same as currently projected Medicare spending, then people will die.

But, Paul Ryan would argue, the Roadmap is going to bring down the cost of health care, so the fact that we’re providing less support won’t matter. Put another way, he might say, Obama’s plan also counts on bringing down the cost of health care, so why can’t I make the same assumption? There are two problems with this argument.

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The Republican Plan, I: People Will Die

So the Republicans have a deficit reduction and a health care plan, all wrapped into one, the “Roadmap for America’s Future.” It’s being pushed by Paul Ryan, in part because he’s the ranking member of the House Budget Committee, in part because he’s good-looking and articulate, in part to provide the party plausible deniability if it flops (like Bobby Jindal a year ago). The CBO says that it will balance the budget and even eliminate the national debt by 2080. Ezra Klein and Matt Yglesias have commented on it. Klein says, “I wouldn’t balance the budget in anything like the way Ryan proposes. His solution works by making care less affordable for seniors. . . . But his proposal is among the few I’ve seen that’s willing to propose solutions in proportion to the problem.” Yglesias says “it’s totally unworkable.” But they’re both being much too kind.

Ryan realizes that “the deficit problem is a health-care problem,” which he agreed to in an interview with Klein. That’s good. He realizes that to solve the deficit you have to do something about Medicare. That’s good. He also puts forward a logically coherent conservative position. That’s good in itself and especially refreshing after the Bush era (and the unfunded Medicare prescription drug benefit) and all the recent posturing of the Republicans as defenders of Medicare (Mitch McConnell: “Cutting Medicare is not what Americans want.“) Ryan’s plan is basically to cut Medicare like never imagined before.

But everything else about the plan is such an unmitigated disaster I’m going to devote a whole paragraph at some point to thinking about how to label this plan. It will be a long time before we get there, though, broken into a couple of blog posts, because there are so many problems to go over.

Continue reading “The Republican Plan, I: People Will Die”

Budget Sense and Nonsense

With the submission of the Obama administration’s budget today, fiscal silly season is opening. President Obama already launched an opening salvo last week with his proposed freeze on non-security-related military spending,which amounts to a rounding error on the ten-year budget projections, which are themselves a rounding error on the long-term budget projections– at a time when unemployment is running at 10.0%. Fortunately, there is a partial saving grace, which is that the freeze does not set until until fiscal year 2011 (which begins in October 2010), and in the meantime Obama has proposed $100 billion in tax cuts and government spending to create jobs. (Whether his proposals are the right way to spend $100 billion is a debate for another time.)

The midterm elections are looming already (note: do we have to be satisfied with a political system in which the legislature is preoccupied with upcoming elections half the time?), and the two big themes seem to be jobs and the deficit. With unemployment at levels not seen since the 1980s, it’s obvious why jobs are on the political agenda. With the federal budget deficit at record (nominal) levels, it also seems obvious that the deficit should be on the agenda, but this is really an unfortunate artifact of our political system. A government deficit is the result of insufficient government saving, and a period of high unemployment is absolutely the worst time to increase government saving. The sensible solution would be to use the urgency we currently feel to put in place long-term fiscal solutions, but the political system can’t handle that (see health care reform as Exhibit A). As a result, when deficits go up, we get lots of short-term politicking about the deficit–in Paul Krugman’s words, the “march of the deficit peacocks.”

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Final Thoughts on Volckerfest 2010

The coming months will tell if the Volcker Rule and the prohibition on banks getting even larger will turn out to be substance or mere spin. I’m finally getting around to reading the transcript of the pre-announcement media briefing and I found a few things that were worth a smile.

1. On the cap on a single institution’s share of liabilities: “The 10 percent cap on insured deposits exists in current law. It was put in place in 1994. And what we’re saying is that deposit cap has served or country well.” Um, then why did you waive it for JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo?

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The Wasted Opportunity

I thoroughly enjoyed reading The End of Influence by Stephen Cohen and Brad DeLong.* For one thing, it’s not specifically about the financial crisis (although that does play a role), so you don’t have to read the nineteenth explanation of how a CDO works or what a NINJA loan is. For another, it’s short–only 150 pages, and small pages at that–and easy to read, so it will probably jump your queue of books to read and you can cross it off your list in just a couple of hours.

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A Constitutional Amendment?

In the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United to expand the ability of corporations* to pay for election-related communications, prominent law professor Lawrence Lessig is calling for a constitutional amendment to protect elections from the influence of money. The text of the proposed amendment isn’t done yet, but the goal is to protect Congress from the influence of money.

Lessig’s argument is simple: Congress is fundamentally (though, thanks to the Supreme Court, legally) corrupt, and most people think it is corrupt, which makes it hard for elected majorities to effect change and also undermines people’s faith in their government. Commenting on Citizens United, he said, “The surprise, and in my view, real cause for concern, however, was how little weight the Court gave to the central purpose of any fair election law: the purpose to protect the institutional integrity of the democratic process. That value seemed invisible to this Court, as if we didn’t now live in a democracy in which the vast majority has lost faith in their government.” Since the Court’s preferred stick for blocking campaign finance reform is the First Amendment, the only thing that can stop them is a new amendment.

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Steve Jobs’s Magic

I know that no one out there really wants to hear my thoughts on new personal technology, but no one’s forcing you to read this. So here are my first thoughts on the iPad, Apple’s new 10″ tablet.

The resurgence of Apple in the last decade has been based on its ability to simply design and build better products than anyone else, in part because it does a better job of understanding what consumers actually want than anyone else. They are also extremely good and marketing and selling; who would have imagined that Apple would also turn out to be better at retail than any other electronic company? But I wonder if, with the iPad, the Steve Jobs magic is running low.

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Good for Goldman

Searching through my RSS feed*, I observer that not many people have commented on Goldman Sachs’s stunning compensation announcement (except for Felix Salmon), perhaps because it came out on the same day as the “Volcker Rule,” perhaps because bloggers are not wired to say nice things about Goldman. But I’m going to make the sure-to-be-unpopular statement that Goldman did the right thing here.

We all know that Goldman made a lot of money last year: $35.0 billion before compensation and taxes, on my reading of the income statement (that’s pre-tax earnings plus compensation and benefits). Many people think that it made that money because of government support, but that’s beside the point here; right now, this is purely a question of dividing the spoils between employees and shareholders.

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The Second Clinton?

On the one hand, last week’s Volcker-fest signaled that the Obama administration wants to get tough on Wall Street. Given that they almost certainly don’t have the votes in the Senate (and probably not the House, either), this may have been a purely political calculation, and it remains to be seen how much substance lies behind the marketing. But even so it was probably smart politics, since it forces Republicans to either go along (which ain’t gonna happen) or come out in favor of hedge funds and proprietary trading.

On the other hand, what the —-? The New York Times reports that Obama is planning to call for a three-year freeze on non-security discretionary spending, which means everything except Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, the Defense Department, Homeland Security, and the VA–that is, everything except the vast majority of the budget. This at a time when the unemployment rate is at 10%.

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The “Professional Investor” Excuse

On Tap takes on the often-used fiction that investment banks have done nothing wrong because they were simply dealing with professional investors who knew what they were getting into. He uses the always reliable device of taking aim at something on the Wall Street Journal op-ed page (a column by Holman Jenkins, in this case)–not only do people actually believe these things, but they get column-inches in one of America’s best newspapers.

To Jenkins, OT responds:

“Generally speaking and contrary to popular belief, caveat emptor is not a well-established legal principal . . . Professionals in other fields have many avenues of recourse when they are sold a defective product—just because you’re an expert doesn’t mean you’ve disclaimed all warranties.”

OT also takes on the argument that banks are always betting against their clients, and the clients should know that.

By James Kwak

Tim Geithner Says to Leave Your Money at Big Banks

But he’s not sure why. During an interview with Mike Allen of Politico, Tim Geithner said that the Move Your Money campaign is a bad idea, but didn’t actually give a reason why. Here’s the whole segment of the interview (beginning around the 3:30 mark):

Allen: “Arianna Huffington has been urigng Americans to move money from big banks to neighborhood banks. Do you think that’s a good idea?”

Geithner: “I don’t, but I do think the following is important that people recognize.”

“But wait, why is that a bad idea?”
Continue reading “Tim Geithner Says to Leave Your Money at Big Banks”