The world seems quiet. Sure, we have record job losses in the US, a likely decline in global trade for 2009, and what seems like to be a Great Leap Downwards for Chinese growth. But no one is quite as worried as they were a month ago, let alone two months ago. It feels, perhaps, like a “regular” global recession (albeit not something we have seen in 20+ years), in which growth decelerates markedly, but then we start to rebound in a timely manner.
Now, I’m happy to accept that as part of my current baseline view (and we will revise our forecast accordingly). But there are serious downside risks to this forecast, i.e., we could move again into crisis mode. The three places I look at on a daily basis for crisis-promoting potential are: Continue reading