Here is the written testimony I submitted to the JEC. In my verbal presentation this morning (5 minutes only, strictly enforced) I stressed the following.
1. The global economy is slowing fast, and likely faces an unprecedented (since 1945) recesssion. The pressures on emerging markets are intense, and inflexibility in Europe in both policy (Eurozone, I’m talking about you) and labor markets (for almost all the European Union) creates serious macroeconomic vulnerability at this stage.
2. In the US, significant (OK, also unprecedented) countercyclical policies have now been put in place. In particular, the Fed is running through its anti-deflation playbook (which Mr Bernanke was kind enough to publish back in 2002). We have no idea how to properly measure the scale, let alone the impact, of this increase in: liquidity, contingent liabilities, actual or potential direct lending to almost everyone in the US, and, via unlimited swap lines to some central banks and new $30 billion swap lines to four emerging markets, to many institutions around the world.
3. So deciding what to do with fiscal policy is very hard. In other industrialized countries, you can rely on “automatic stabilizers” to a greater degree than in the U.S., meaning that their government spending (and deficit) increases in recession because unemployment benefits and the like are more generous. In the U.S., we have to make a conscious decision. And that decision needs to be made soon, within a month or so, because any fiscal stimulus works only with a time lag – and the more you want to do things that definitely raised GDP (like infrastructure), the longer the time lag.
So my recommendation is… (well, read the testimony; the numbers are on the first page; detailed recommendations follow on how to spend, for both immediate impact and longer-term benefits).
Comments welcome – there is still a long way to go, in terms of legislation design and implementation.
Update: If you want to see the actual session courtesy of C-SPAN, go here. (Note there were 8 speakers and the session was two hours long.)