At a Brookings panel today and even more so on a LA-based NPR radio show (“To the Point,” KCRW) just now, the impact on the “real economy,” i.e., people and businesses outside the financial sector, was the issue of the day. And people are beginning to understand the serious consequences of our financial system problems, with or without the Paulson Plan becoming law this week.
Here’s what I suggested at Brookings this morning, for the US, which is pretty close to what is in our Baseline Scenario, First Edition:
- Tell everyone that their deposits are safe. Explain that no one has ever lost a penny when the FDIC has been involved and, de facto, they always pay all depositors, even those with over $100,000. I recommend removing the deposit insurance cap. In other words, do what it takes to stop the run.
- Then work on bank recapitalization, right away (I think you can see the consensus moving in this direction already this week; I’ll try to post on the emergent schemes tomorrow)
- And deal directly with the underlying troubled mortgages (again, I hear ideas emerging fast; give that a couple more days before I do a survey)
- And get ready to provide a substantial fiscal stimulus. But don’t even think about this unless you have done 1, and much of 2 is in place, and the programs to deal with 3 are on their way.
Perhaps the overlooked issue of the week was the speed with which the crisis is clearly going global, with now a long list of European countries having banks in trouble. Europe also needs to stop the run on their banks before it gets out of hand.
One sensible way to do this would be with a large Europe-wide fund to inject capital and receive preferred equity in banks, on terms advantageous to taxpayers. Yes, this is point 2 above, on steroids. Of course, they have to deal with underlying domestic mortgages in Ireland, the UK and Spain (but not yet in other countries). The danger in Europe is that they don’t have as much fiscal space as the US (so point 4 is an issue) and their central bank is stuck with a mandate (i.e., just worry about inflation) that would have been nice to have in the 1970s, but may not be quite so appropriate today.
The severity of the global recession is going to depend, in large part, on the speed with which governments in Europe can organize swift, comprehensive and decisive support for their banking systems. And, following that, it will depend on exactly how the process of deleveraging (this is jargon essentially, meaning reduced lending by the financial sector) is handled.
The latest news from Europe (timely, thanks to the Financial Times): there will not be an immediate systematic rescue. It’s the French who seem to have understood what is really going on. Unfortunately, as of now, their European partners have not yet woken up to the new realities. In particular, Germany and perhaps the UK seem to stand in the way of a more systematic approach. This has dangerous implications for the US.
Days to the election: 34