Author: Simon Johnson

How The Banks Stole Medicare

By Simon Johnson

The world’s largest banks have been accused of many things in recent years, including taking excessive risk in the run-up to 2008, doing great damage to the American economy by blowing themselves up and then working hard to resist any sensible notions of financial reform.

All of this is true, but it misses what is likely to be the most profound negative impact of the banks’ behavior on most Americans. The banks’ actions led directly to an increase in government debt, which in turn has made the reduction of that debt by “cutting runaway spending” a centerpiece of the Republican presidential campaign to date.

As a result of this pressure, Medicare now stands on the brink of being eliminated as a viable form of social insurance. Yet the executives who lead these banks – and the politicians with whom they work closely – will not be held accountable this election season. Continue reading “How The Banks Stole Medicare” →

Volcker Rule Would Cause Irreparable Damage To The Muppets – And Much More Broadly

By Simon Johnson, April 1st, 2012

A major new research report – released this weekend by the renowned international consulting firm, IMS – finds conclusively that implementation of the proposed Volcker Rule would damage not just the irreplaceable Muppets but also “all children-oriented television or other media-based educational program content.”

The logic in the report is straightforward and, quite frankly, compelling.  The Volcker Rule – which aims to limit proprietary trading and excessive risk-taking by the country’s largest banks – would reduce the ability of “too big to fail” institutions to bet heavily on the price of commodities used to produce puppets (mostly cotton, but also apparently wood, aluminum, and some rare earths.)

“In response to the changing demands of their customers, banks have expanded their role of providing financial resources and services to include risk management and intermediation services to [various kinds of puppets]” (p. ES2)

These services are highly profitable and of great value to the skilled artisans who produce puppets, but if the very biggest banks are not allowed to engage in these activities, then no one else will. Continue reading “Volcker Rule Would Cause Irreparable Damage To The Muppets – And Much More Broadly” →

Last Ditch Attempt To Save A Little Bit Of Investor Protection In The United States

By Simon Johnson

As it currently stands, the “JOBS” bill now before the Senate would gut investor protection in the United States.  The title of the bill is a complete misnomer – anything that weakens investor protection makes it more risky to invest in companies and increases the cost of capital to honest entrepreneurs.  (For more background on the bill and links, see this piece.)

Much of the 1930s-era Securities legislation, which served us well for more than 70 years, is about to be repealed in a moment of bipartisan madness.

Almost all attempts to amend the House version of this legislation – and to make it more favorable to investors – have now failed in the Senate, and the “cloture motion” received more than 60 votes (so the bill cannot be filibustered).  But Senator Jack Reed (D., Rhode Island) is leading one last charge to make the Senate version more reasonable. Continue reading “Last Ditch Attempt To Save A Little Bit Of Investor Protection In The United States” →

“JOBS” Disaster Looms

By Simon Johnson

The House “JOBS” bill is a thinly disguised repeal of investor protection in the United States.  This legislation would help unscrupulous people in the securities industry but it would be bad for nonfinancial businesses – by raising the risks to investors, it would push up the cost of capital for honest entrepreneurs.   Investment professionals belonging to the CFA Institute have expressed their serious concerns and strong opposition.  Attempts to amend this legislation – and to make it more sensible – failed in the Senate yesterday.

The Senate will vote today on whether to adopt the main provisions of the House bill.   Passing this bill would be a major public policy mistake – akin to the disastrous (and bipartisan) deregulation of the financial sector in the 1990s.  This kind of excessive deregulation leads to disaster – and to fiscal crisis.  (For more background and the historical comparison, see this piece.) Continue reading ““JOBS” Disaster Looms” →

CFA Institute Against the “JOBS” bill

By Simon Johnson

The Senate is due to vote today on the so-called “JOBS” bill – a piece of legislation, originating in the House, which aims to reduce disclosure and other securities law protections for investors (see my review yesterday; a link to HR3606 is here).

Supporters of the law claim that it will greatly increase the number of companies going public – and that this will boost economic growth and job creation.  Opponents argue that by weakening investor protection, the risks of investing in start-up companies will increase – there will be more frauds and scams – and this will increase the cost of capital for honest entrepreneurs.

Members of the CFA Institute have an interest in getting this right – this is the “global association of investment professionals” and they make their living by figuring out what is a good investment and what is likely to become a losing proposition.  These people also have a lot of expertise on the key issue – which is better for business, weakening investor protections or keeping them in place?  Which way are these experts voting?

Overwhelmingly, members of the CFA Institute are against the “JOBs” bill as it currently stands. Continue reading “CFA Institute Against the “JOBS” bill” →

A Colossal Mistake of Historic Proportions: The “JOBS” bill

By Simon Johnson, co-author of White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, And Why It Matters To You

From the 1970s until recently, Congress allowed and encouraged a great deal of financial market deregulation – allowing big banks to become larger, to expand their scope, and to take on more risks.  This legislative agenda was largely bipartisan, up to and including the effective repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act at the end of the 1990s.  After due legislative consideration, the way was cleared for megabanks to combine commercial and investment banking on a complex global scale.  The scene was set for the 2008 financial crisis – and the awful recession from which we are only now beginning to emerge.

With the so-called JOBS bill, on which the Senate is due to vote Tuesday, Congress is about to make the same kind of mistake again – this time abandoning much of the 1930s-era securities legislation that both served investors well and helped make the US one of the best places in the world to raise capital.  We find ourselves again on a bipartisan route to disaster. Continue reading “A Colossal Mistake of Historic Proportions: The “JOBS” bill” →

Responsible Populism

By Simon Johnson

“Populism” is a loaded term in modern American politics. On the one hand, it conveys the idea that someone represents (or claims to represent) the broad mass of society against a privileged elite. This is a theme that plays well on the right as well as the left – although they sometimes have different ideas about who is in that troublesome “elite.”

At the same time, populism is often used in a pejorative way – as a putdown, implying “the people” want irresponsible things that would undermine the fabric of society or the smooth functioning of the economy.

In Latin America, for example, there is a long tradition of populists falling into bed with a corrupt political elite, and the results invariably include irresponsible macroeconomic policies and various kinds of financial disaster (see “The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America,” edited by Rudiger Dornbush and Sebastian Edwards).

In North America, however, the populist tradition has proved much more constructive. More than 100 years ago, hot-button issues included direct election of senators and a federal income tax. None of these demands seem irresponsible today, and achieving those goals through constitutional amendments in the run-up to 1914 in no way jeopardized American prosperity. Continue reading “Responsible Populism” →

The Koch Brothers, The Cato Institute, And Why Nations Fail

By Simon Johnson

A dispute has broken out between the Cato Institute, a leading libertarian think tank, and two of its longtime backers – David and Charles Koch. The institute is not the usual form of nonprofit but actually a company with shares; the Koch brothers own two of the four shares and are arguing that they have the right to acquire additional shares and thus presumably exert more control. The institute and some of its senior staff are pushing back.

According to Edward H. Crane, the president and co-founder of Cato, “This is an effort by the Kochs to turn the Cato Institute into some sort of auxiliary for the G.O.P.” Bob Levy, chairman of the Cato board, told The Washington Post: “We would take closer marching orders. That’s totally contrary to what we perceive the function of Cato be.”

Far from being just an unseemly row between prominent personalities on the right, this showdown reflects a much deeper set of concerns for American politics and society. And it raises what I regard as the central question of an important book, “Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty,” by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson that will be published on March 20. Continue reading “The Koch Brothers, The Cato Institute, And Why Nations Fail” →

Thanks To “Tax Notes”

By Simon Johnson

In my post this morning on dynamic scoring and how to turn the United States into something closer to Greece, I requested that the publication Tax Notes bring an article by John Buckley out from behind their paywall (“Dynamic Scoring: Will S&P Have Company?,” published February 28, 2012.)

The publishers have now done so, for which I would like to thank them – this is a public service that is greatly appreciated.  I don’t know how long the article will remain in the open access part of their website, so I strongly advise anyone who cares about the fiscal future of this country to read it now (and tell your friends).

“Dynamic scoring” of U.S. budget proposals would be a disaster. Continue reading “Thanks To “Tax Notes”” →

Making the United States More Like Greece

By Simon Johnson

One of the big problems in Greece over the past decade or so is that the government was not honest with its data.  Various people assisted in the matter – including Goldman Sachs with respect to some debt issues – but ultimately this was a political decision at the highest level.  The people running the country decided to conceal the true nature of their budget and their debt.  This deception ended up costing the country dearly – completely undermining its credibility under pressure and making it much harder to turn the fiscal and economic situation around.

House Republicans are now proposing something similar for the United States.

Because this concerns deficits and debt, the details may seem arcane – and that is how similar details escaped attention by almost everyone in Greece.  Fortunately, in the United States we have an excellent guide – an article in Tax Notes by John Buckley.  (“Dynamic Scoring: Will S&P Have Company?,” February 28, 2012; at the moment this is available only behind their paywall but in the public interest I would strongly encourage Tax Notes to make this piece freely available – as they have in the past for other important articles.) Continue reading “Making the United States More Like Greece” →

When Did Republicans Become Fiscally Irresponsible?

By Simon Johnson, co-author of White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, The National Debt, and Why It Matters To You, available April 3rd

The United States has a great deal of public debt outstanding – and a future trajectory that is sobering (see this recent presentation by Doug Elmendorf, director of the Congressional Budget Office). Yet the four remaining contenders for the Republican nomination are competing for primary votes, in part, with proposals that would – under realistic assumptions – worsen the budget deficit and further increase the dangers associated with excessive federal government debt.

Politicians of all stripes and in almost all countries claim to be “fiscally responsible.” You always need to strip away the rhetoric and look at exactly what they are proposing.

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget does this for the Republican presidential contenders. I recommend making the comparison using what the committee calls its “high debt” scenario. This is the toughest and most realistic of their projections – again, a good and fair rule of thumb to use for assessing politicians everywhere.

Under this scenario, Newt Gingrich’s proposals would increase net federal government debt held by the private sector to close to 130 percent of gross domestic product by 2021, from around 75 percent of G.D.P. this year. Continue reading “When Did Republicans Become Fiscally Irresponsible?” →

Ron Paul’s Budget Proposals: Fiscally Irresponsible

By Simon Johnson, co-author of White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters To You, available from April 3rd.

Representative Ron Paul sees himself as an independent thinker – not afraid to confront the conventional wisdom, whether in the form of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke or mainstream views within the Republican Party.  As I have written elsewhere recently, we should take Mr. Paul seriously – and not simply dismiss his proposals out of hand.

However, Mr. Paul’s current proposals for the federal budget can only be described as fiscally irresponsible.  This is completely at odds with his more general stated principles (including in the hearing with Mr. Bernanke this morning), including his well-articulated concern about inflation. Continue reading “Ron Paul’s Budget Proposals: Fiscally Irresponsible” →

Why Won’t The Federal Reserve Board Talk To Financial Reform Advocates?

By Simon Johnson

The Federal Reserve has great power in modern American society, including the ability to move the economy and, at least indirectly, to create or destroy fortunes. Its powers operate in two ways: through control over monetary policy, meaning interest rates and credit conditions more broadly, and through its influence over how the financial system is regulated generally and how specific large banks are treated.

The secrecy of our central bank has long been a source of controversy. In line with changes at central banks in other countries over recent decades, the Fed’s chairman, Ben Bernanke, has pushed for more transparency regarding how individual members of the Federal Open Market Committee view the economy – and thus how they are thinking about the future course of interest rates (and the Fed keeps us posted). This is a commendable change, helping people throughout the economy understand what the Fed is trying to do and why.

Under pressure from both left and right – for example, in the unlikely alliance of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Representative Ron Paul of Texas – the Fed has also, after the fact, disclosed more of its actions during the recent financial crisis.

But in terms of its process for determining financial-sector regulation, the Federal Reserve – at least at the level of the Board of Governors in Washington – is moving in the wrong direction. Continue reading “Why Won’t The Federal Reserve Board Talk To Financial Reform Advocates?” →

Mean-Spirited, Bad Economics

By Simon Johnson

The principle behind unemployment insurance is simple. Since the 1930s, employers – and in some states employees — have paid insurance premiums (in the form of payroll taxes, levied on wages) to the government. If people are laid off through no fault of their own, they can claim this insurance – just like you file a claim on your homeowner’s or renter’s policy if your home burns down.

Fire insurance is mostly sold by the private sector; unemployment insurance is “sold” by the government – because the private sector never performed this role adequately. The original legislative intent, reaffirmed over the years, is clear: Help people to help themselves in the face of shocks beyond their control.

But the severity and depth of our current recession raise an issue on a scale that we have literally not had to confront since the 1930s. What should we do when large numbers of people run out of standard unemployment benefits, much of which are provided at the state level, but still cannot find a job? At the moment, the federal government steps in to provide extended benefits.

In negotiations currently under way, House Republicans propose to cut back dramatically on these benefits, asserting that this will push people back to work and speed the recovery. Does this make sense, or is it bad economics, as well as being mean-spirited? Continue reading “Mean-Spirited, Bad Economics” →

Breakthrough: Eric Schneiderman To Chair Mortgage Crisis Unit

By Simon Johnson

As reported first in the Huffington Post, President Obama is creating “a special unit to investigate misconduct and illegalities that contributed to both the financial collapse and the mortgage crisis”.  This will be chaired by Eric Schneiderman, the New York attorney general.

For more background on why this makes sense and could represent a major policy breakthrough, please see this column: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71788.html.