By James Kwak
A reader alerted me to the World Cup forecasting competition, which includes links to the predictions made by several major investment banks’ models, and some data you can use if you want to give it a shot. The predictions:
- JPMorgan Chase: England
- UBS: Brazil (UBS also has South Africa as the team most likely to make the second round, which seems surprising.)
- Goldman: Brazil
- Danske Bank: Brazil
I typically root for France, because I started following soccer while living in France back in the early 1990s, but I don’t think I can this time because (a) they don’t deserve to be in the World Cup Finals, having beaten Ireland on an obvious hand ball and (b) I can’t stand their coach, who has managed to transform an incredibly talented group of players into a mediocre team.
As for who will win, I would go with Nate Silver (who recently signed with the Times for three years) if he made a prediction, but I don’t think he has.
15 thoughts on “Investment Banks and the World Cup”
“England is good, Brazil is good, Italy is good, Teams from Africa are cute underdogs and thus always worth a bet.”
Nate says Brazil, as he designed the Soccer Power Index used by ESPN.
Heh, pictured you as more a basketball guy James.
I like Henry, but France generally makes me want to puke. But Henry is a cool guy. The only team I would have interest in is China (I assume they didn’t even come close to making it this year). I would watch it hopefully with about 10 bottles of Bud Ice beer handy and some weird schizophrenic argument going on in my mind while walking down some kind of morbid memory lane.
I remember watching China’s football team play 2002 in a Wal-Mart in northeast China, and every time they came within 10 meters of the goal you would think China astronauts had just landed on the Moon. They never scored a goal the entire game. I actually felt empathy for the little nationalist/racist midgets for a few minutes.
Thierry Henry ? The guy’s a freaking idiot. He doesn’t hold a candle to players like Laurent Blanc or Zinedine Zidane
Anyway, I agree with James and a lot of French do too. France’s team is a disgrace. The players are a disgrace, a ramassis of cheats and over-sized egos. Raymond Domenech is a loathsome moron. The quals were a disgrace, plain thievery. The most recent matches have been utterly ridiculous (0-1 loss to China ???).
The only good news ? It looks like Yoann Gourcuff will be out, on the bench. He’s one of the few decent guys on that joke of a team and, if rumors are true, he will be spared the humiliation France is about to collect in SA.
May they lose and badly too.
James, I can tell you’re French. And if not, you deserve to be! Everybody here (well, there, I’m on the wrong side of the Channel) would agree with you that this team is just a knockabout farce, thanks to a chief clown acting as a coach and to a bunch of snooty guys…
Portugal will take the World Cup this year. Forca Portugal! Allez Tugas Allez!
Good for you not supporting France because of the Thierry Henry handball against Ireland!
ENGLAND, ENGLAND, ENGLAND!
you know, it’s called football. not soccer :)
whoever’s playing against England
James, I’m finally throwing my money into the betting pool.
I think John Thain and the banker boys know expensive office toilets. Vegas and the mobster boys know sports. Spain reigns supreme in 2010. If you win any money on my tip James, you should send me a gentlemanly gift of 2 bottles of cheap Gin. Send c/o “goofball”.
How can you not pick Argentina; a team that features some of the best talent on the planet. Messi, Tevez, Milito, Di Maria, Macherano, Veron, etc.
Argentina all the way!!!
Italy to donate portion of prize money to acknowledge global financial crisis
(CP) – 7 hours ago
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