November 4, 2008: below is the (rough) structure for today’s class, as handed out to students. Remember, you can watch a webcast live (4pm Boston time), and a recorded version should be available for download on Thursday.
The Global Crisis, class #2
Relevant links, including more about our guests, and other additional material are available through http://BaselineScenario.com.
1. Crisis, What Crisis?
a. Credit conditions in the US and around the world
b. Forecast for the real economy in Europe
c. Current pressures on emerging markets
2. Case for a fiscal stimulus in the United States (see my testimony to the JEC of Congress)
a. Likely severity and length of recession
b. Size of fiscal stimulus that makes sense
c. Composition of the stimulus (an election issue…)
3. Agenda for the G20 meeting in Washington, November 14-15th
a. Conversation (by phone) with Arvind Subramanian, Peterson Institute for International Economics
i. What should emerging markets aim for in the short- and long-term?
ii. What can they realistically expect to get?
b. What does the United States want, and why? (We’ll think through some election scenarios)
c. Who wants what within Europe? How much power do they have?
We play a game, with assigned roles. Let’s see how we do relative to the real economic diplomats.
4. Open discussion
a. Other issues raised via the website
b. Where does the world economy go from here?
No class on Tuesday, November 11 (MIT holiday). Next class is Tuesday, November 18th.