Author: Simon Johnson

Lowering The Boom On Financial Leverage

This guest post is by David Moss, the John G. McLean Professor at Harvard Business School and the founder of the Tobin Project.  (See his previous guest post here.)

The struggle for financial regulatory reform in Washington will fail if the debate continues to focus mainly on the bookends of the crisis – the original subprime shock and the eventual federal bailout.  Although both were very serious problems, even more serious was the near collapse of the American financial system that came in between. 

A healthy financial system would have been able to absorb the subprime shock, like a well-conditioned fighter who’s able to take a punch and remain standing.  But our financial system, wildly overleveraged, crumpled after just one blow.  If we don’t fix the leverage problem, everything else will be for naught.   Continue reading “Lowering The Boom On Financial Leverage” →

Six Questions For Axel Weber

By Simon Johnson

Given recent maneuverings around European Central Bank (ECB) appointments and the obvious discomfort of Mario Draghi – he carries the Goldman Sachs connection now like other people carry albatrosses – the German financial-industrial complex seems to regard Axel Weber as a “done deal” to become the new ECB president.

Such an assumption is premature.  Mr. Weber, as long standing head of the Bundesbank and general German economic maestro (including, quietly, on fiscal issues), is due to face his own round of questioning – if you listen carefully, you can hear southern Europeans sharpening their arguments, and with good reason.

There are six important and difficult subject areas for Mr. Weber. Continue reading “Six Questions For Axel Weber” →

Capital Controls Again

By Simon Johnson

Adair Turner, head of the UK’s Financial Supervisory Authority, has developed a flair for pushing the official conversation on banking forward.

He spoke in favor of a tax on financial services, long before that was fashionable.  This idea has been picked by both the UK and US governments – and in some amended form is likely to emerge from the G20 intergovernmental summit process later this year.

Turner also pointed out that much of financial innovation is not actually socially useful – and may, in some instances, be profoundly dangerous.  For a while, it seemed that his voice on this point might be lost in the wilderness.  But then President Obama launched the Volcker Rules, which essentially attempt to rein in certain forms of risk-taking (and arguably innovation) by very big banks.

Now Adair Turner is at it again, this time in the 14th Chintaman Deshmukh Memorial Lecture, delivered at the Reserve Bank of India in Mumbai earlier this week. Continue reading “Capital Controls Again” →

Greece Should Approach The IMF

By Simon Johnson

European Union pressure is growing for Greece to “do the right thing” – which means, to the EU’s leaders, a massive and sudden cut in the Greek budget deficit.  Greece, without doubt, has gotten itself into a fine mess; still, it is now time for the Greek government push back more effectively.

Fuming at EU arrogance will accomplish nothing.  And, while global investment banks may have helped hide the evidence, it seems unlikely they actually designed the great blunder of eurozone admission (and broken Greek promises).  It’s time to stop blaming others and get crafty.

Greece should open a semi-official channel to the IMF and talk discretely about taking out a loan. Continue reading “Greece Should Approach The IMF” →

Fallout From Goldman-Greece Affair Widens: Impact On The European Central Bank

By Simon Johnson

As controller of the euro, the European Central Bank (ECB) wields great power in Europe and has a wide global reach.  The race to become the ECB’s next president – with a term that starts next year – has been intense and hard fought.  The final selection is down to two men: the ultra hawkish Axel Weber, head of the Bundesbank, who sees inflation dangers at every turn; and the relatively more moderate Mario Draghi, head of the Bank of Italy, chair of the Financial Stability Board, and experienced international economic diplomat. 

Unfortunately for those hoping that Draghi could still prevail, he is also formerly senior management at Goldman Sachs and serious questions are emerging regarding what he knew and did during Goldman’s alleged “let’s help Greece circumvent EU budget rules” phase in the early 2000s.

Specifically, Draghi joined Goldman Sachs in January 2002, after a distinguished public service career – including 10 years in a key position (Director General) at the Italian Treasury.  His formal titles were Managing Director, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International, and member of the “Group’s Commitment Committee”; his job, according to Goldman’s press release, was to “help the firm develop and execute business with major European corporations and with governments and government agencies worldwide.”

Did this involve Greece? Continue reading “Fallout From Goldman-Greece Affair Widens: Impact On The European Central Bank” →

Senior Goldman Adviser Criticizes Greece – Without Disclosing His Goldman Affiliation

 By Simon Johnson

Otmar Issing, a former senior European Central Bank official, came out strongly today against any kind of rescue package for Greece (FT op ed; Bloomberg report).

He hits hard to the core of the issue:

“Financial assistance for countries that violated the terms of their participation in EMU [European Monetary Union, i.e., the eurozone] would be a major blow for the credibility of the whole framework.”

Unfortunately, Mr. Issing’s article (and the subsequent coverage) neglected to mention that he is an adviser to Goldman Sachs (see also the FT archives).  This is a major issue for three reasons. Continue reading “Senior Goldman Adviser Criticizes Greece – Without Disclosing His Goldman Affiliation” →

Goldman Goes Rogue – Special European Audit To Follow

At 9:30pm on Sunday, September 21, 2008, Goldman Sachs was saved from imminent collapse by the announcement that the Federal Reserve would allow it to become a bank holding company – implying unfettered access to borrowing from the Fed and other forms of implicit government support, all of which subsequently proved most beneficial.  Officials allowed Goldman to make such an unprecedented conversion in the name of global financial stability.  (The blow-by-blow account is in Andrew Ross Sorkin’s Too Big To Fail; this is confirmed in all substantial detail by Hank Paulson’s memoir.)

We now learn – from Der Spiegel last week and today’s NYT – that Goldman Sachs has not only helped or encouraged some European governments to hide a large part of their debts, but it also endeavored to do so for Greece as recently as last November.  These actions are fundamentally destabilizing to the global financial system, as they undermine: the eurozone area; all attempts to bring greater transparency to government accounting; and the most basic principles that underlie well-functioning markets.  When the data are all lies, the outcomes are all bad – see the subprime mortgage crisis for further detail.

A single rogue trader can bring down a bank – remember the case of Barings.  But a single rogue bank can bring down the world’s financial system.

Goldman will dismiss this as “business as usual” and, to be sure, a few phone calls around Washington will help ensure that Goldman’s primary supervisor – now the Fed – looks the other way.

But the affair is now out of Ben Bernanke’s hands, and quite far from people who are easily swayed by the White House.  It goes immediately to the European Commission, which has jurisdiction over eurozone budget issues.  Faced with enormous pressure from those eurozone countries now on the hook for saving Greece, the Commission will surely launch a special audit of Goldman and all its European clients. Continue reading “Goldman Goes Rogue – Special European Audit To Follow” →

Greece Derails – Is Europe Far Behind?

By Simon Johnson

Already facing serious difficulties – both internal and with regard to its EU partners (see our longer essay in Saturday’s WSJ) – Greece’s predicament just became substantially worse.

Speaking on national television this evening, the Greek Prime Minister – George Papandreou – lashed out at the European Union (presumably meaning mostly Germany) for creating a “psychology of looming collapse which could be self-fulfilling.”  He also implied that Greece was being treated, in some senses, like a “lab animal.”

Without doubt, EU engagement with Greece over the past week or three has not be well-managed – and the pseudo-announcement of support after the summit on Thursday was a complete amateur hour. Continue reading “Greece Derails – Is Europe Far Behind?” →

Waiting For The G7 On The Euro

By Simon Johnson

Yesterday’s announcement of European “support” for Greece was badly bungled. 

The Global Crisis Fighter’s Guide to the Galaxy clearly states that when “markets overreact… policy needs to overreact as well” (see Larry Summers’s 2000 Ely Lecture to the American Economic Assocation, American Economic Review, vol. 90, no. 2, p.11; no free link available – and yes, I know that the White House doesn’t always follow its own playbook). 

This definitely does not mean: Vague promises to provide some support in an unspecified fashion in return for some policy actions to be specified later.

Irrespective of your view on how much fiscal adjustment Greece needs vs. how much German taxpayer money it deserves (or can realistically expect), you need a different approach – much more concrete and detailed.  The only good news yesterday was that the IMF will play a slightly greater role than previously expected, but even this change was a nuance missed by everyone – and who knows where it will lead.

If the euro continues to depreciate as it has so far today, the G7 will need to weigh in. Continue reading “Waiting For The G7 On The Euro” →

Is Larry Summers Getting Tougher?

Financial regulation is currently in no-man’s land, having emerged more or less intact from the House frying pan before facing the gauntlet of the Senate.

To its credit, the Obama administration has in recent weeks taken a firmer position: The excesses of the past decade have to come to an end. This was evident three weeks ago in the new proposals announced by the president to constrain the activities of large banks, which went beyond anything the Treasury Department had proposed last summer.

It was also evident in an interview that Lawrence H. Summers, the president’s chief economic counselor, gave to CNBC on Tuesday. (Ryan Grim has transcribed additional quotations.) Continue reading “Is Larry Summers Getting Tougher?” →

President Obama On CEO Compensation At Too Big To Fail Banks

Bloomberg today reports President Obama as commenting on the $17 million bonus for Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase and the $9 million bonus for Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs,

“I know both those guys; they are very savvy businessmen,”

and

““I, like most of the American people, don’t begrudge people success or wealth. That is part of the free- market system.”

Taken separately, these statements are undeniably true.  But put them together in the context of the Bloomberg story – we have to wait until Friday for the full text of the interview – and the White House has a major public relations disaster on its hands. Continue reading “President Obama On CEO Compensation At Too Big To Fail Banks” →

Revised Baseline Scenario: February 9, 2010

Caution: this is a long post (about 3,000 words).  The main points are in the first few hundred words and the remainder is supportive detail.  This material was the basis of testimony to the Senate Budget Committee today by Simon Johnson.

A.    Main Points

1)      In recent months, the US economy entered a recovery phase following the severe credit crisis-induced recession of 2008-09.  While slower than it should have been based on previous experience, growth has surprised on the upside in the past quarter.  This will boost headline year-on-year growth above the current consensus for 2010.  We estimate the global economy will grow over 4 percent, as measured by the IMF’s year-on-year headline number (their latest published forecast is for 3.9 percent), with US growth in the 3-4 percent range – calculated on the same basis.

2)      But thinking in terms of these headline numbers masks a much more worrying dynamic.  A major sovereign debt crisis is gathering steam in Europe, focused for now on the weaker countries in the eurozone, but with the potential to spillover also to the United Kingdom.  These further financial market disruptions will not only slow the European economies – we estimate growth in the euro area will fall to around 0.5 percent Q4 on Q4 (the IMF puts this at 1.1 percent, but the January World Economic Outlook update was prepared before the Greek crisis broke in earnest) – it will also cause the euro to weaken and lower growth around the world.

3)      There are some European efforts underway to limit debt crisis to Greece and to prevent the further spread of damage.  But these efforts are too little and too late.  The IMF also cannot be expected to play any meaningful role in the near term.  Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain – a group known to the markets as PIIGS, will all come under severe pressure from speculative attacks on their credit.  These attacks are motivated by fiscal weakness and made possible by the reluctance of relatively strong European countries to help out the PIIGS.  (Section B below has more detail.) Continue reading “Revised Baseline Scenario: February 9, 2010” →

Euro Falling, US Recovery Under Threat

Intensified fears over government debt in the eurozone are pushing the euro weaker against the dollar.  The G7 achieved nothing over the weekend, the IMF is stuck on the sidelines, and the Europeans are sitting on their hands at least until a summit on Thursday.  There is a lot of trading time between now and then – and most of it is likely to be spent weakening the euro further.

The UK also faces serious pressure, and there is no telling where this goes next around the world – or how it gets there.

There may be direct effects on the US, as our banking system remains undercapitalized.  Or the effect may be through making it harder to export – one of the few bright spots for the American economy over the past 12 months has been trade.  But this is unlikely to hold up as a driver of growth if the euro depreciation continues.

Some financial market participants cling to the hope that the stronger eurozone countries, particularly Germany, will soon help out the weaker countries in a generous manner.   But this view completely misreads the situation. Continue reading “Euro Falling, US Recovery Under Threat” →

Europe Risks Another Global Depression

The entirely pointless G7 meeting this weekend only served to underline the fact that Europe is again entering a serious economic crisis.

At the end of the meeting yesterday, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told reporters, “I just want to underscore they made it clear to us, they the European authorities, that they will manage this [the Greek debt crisis] with great care.”

But the Europeans are not being careful – and it’s not just about Greece any more.  Worries about government debt and associated public sector liabilities (e.g., because banking systems are in deep trouble) have spread through the eurozone to Spain and Portugal.  Ireland and Italy are next up for hostile reconsideration by the markets, and the UK may not be far behind. 

What are the stronger European countries, specifically Germany and France, doing to contain the self-fulfilling fear that weaker eurozone countries may not be able to pay their debt – this panic that pushes up interest rates and makes it harder for beleaguered governments to actually pay?

The Europeans with deep-pockets are doing nothing – except insist that all countries under pressure cut their budgets quickly and in ways that are probably politically infeasible.  This kind of precipitate fiscal austerity contributed directly to the onset of the Great Depression in the 1930s. Continue reading “Europe Risks Another Global Depression” →