Forecasters at international organizations often find themselves in a delicate position. On the one hand, they have unparalleled access to hard data and intelligence about what is happening in every corner of the world economy. On the other hand, their main shareholders – the US and larger European countries – do not want to hear predictions that are inconsistent with their own preferred baseline.
And, in the case of the US today, nothing could be more sensitive: it’s a relatively optimistic baseline, with a quick bounceback next year, that underpins the mild “stress scenario” being used for banks. So if the World Bank or the IMF said that the world economy is going down and not coming back any time soon, that would raise major issues.
The World Bank clearly wants to speak truth to authority on this occasion, but can’t quite get the job done. Continue reading
Jim Yong Kim For The World Bank
By Simon Johnson, co-author of White House Burning
A decision on choosing the next president of the World Bank is expected this week – perhaps as early as Monday. The Obama administration nominated Jim Yong Kim, president of Dartmouth College and a noted public health expert. The reaction to this nomination from development economists and people experienced in the business of lending to poor countries has been overwhelmingly negative.
They are making a big mistake. Mr. Kim would make an excellent World Bank president. Continue reading →
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Tagged Jim Yong Kim, World Bank