Archive for the ‘Baseline’ Category
1. Financial markets have stabilized – largely because people believe that the government will not allow Citigroup to fail. We have effectively nationalized any banking system losses, but we’ll let bank executives enjoy the full benefits of the upside. How much shareholders participate remains to be seen; there will be no effective reining in of insider [...]
Baseline Scenario for 4/7/2009 (9am): Post-G20 Edition Peter Boone, Simon Johnson, and James Kwak, copyright of the authors. This long-overdue (and hopefully widely-awaited) version of our Baseline Scenario focuses largely on the United States, both because of the volume of activity in the U.S. in the last two months, and also because the U.S. will [...]
I talked yesterday with Steve Weisman, my colleague at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, about where the global economy is likely heading. Steve asked very good questions about U.S. monetary policy and what effects it will have. You can listen to our conversation here.
Baseline Scenario for 12/15/2008: pdf version Peter Boone, Simon Johnson, and James Kwak, copyright of the authors Summary 1) The world is heading into a severe slump, with declining output in the near term and no clear turnaround in sight. 2) Consumers in the US and the nonfinancial corporate sector everywhere are trying to “rebuild [...]
Baseline Scenario, November 10, 2008 By Peter Boone, Simon Johnson, and James Kwak, copyright of the authors The Baseline Scenario is our periodic overview of the current state of the global economy and our policy proposals. It includes two sections: Analysis of the current situation and how we got here Policy proposals Please note that [...]
Baseline Scenario, October 20, 2008 By Peter Boone, Simon Johnson, and James Kwak, copyright of the authors Download PDF The Baseline Scenario is our periodic overview of the current state of the global economy and our policy proposals. It includes three sections: Updates that have caused us to modify the baseline since the last version [...]
Baseline Scenario: Analysis, October 13, 2008 By Peter Boone and Simon Johnson, copyright Published weekly, The Baseline Scenario is divided into two parts: analysis (this post) and policy (a separate post). In the analysis section, we first explain how we have updated (or not) our views, based on the major developments of last week. Then, [...]
Baseline Scenario: Policy, October 13, 2008 By Peter Boone and Simon Johnson, copyright (For an explanation of the baseline scenario and our analysis, go here.) The U.S. The key weapon that the United States possesses is that the U.S. balance sheet is credible. The U.S. is not going to lose its AAA rating. The U.S. [...]
Our latest analysis and proposals have been published by the Washington Post (print edition Sunday) in an article by Peter and Simon entitled “The Next World War? It Could Be Financial.” If the world’s leading financial powers cannot agree on a coordinated response, it could be “every nation for itself” – a repeat, on a [...]
Events of the past several days have convinced us that the state of the global economy is getting worse and we have revised our analysis and proposals accordingly. In short, coordinated, large-scale actions by the U.S. and Europe, including bank recapitalization plans and guarantees of banks’ obligations, are necessary to limit the spread of a [...]
Our weekly baseline scenario is divided into three parts: updates since last week; our analysis of the current situation; and our policy proposals. First-time readers should begin with the analysis and continue with the proposals; returning readers may want to just read the updates and the proposals. (Or download the complete baseline in PDF.) Despite [...]
I thought it might be an eventful day when the news broke that a major bank (Wachovia) was being taken over (by Citi) while I was in the midst of posting our Baseline Scenario. But I took it in stride, feeling confident that this was consistent with what we thought, broadly, was going to happen – remember that [...]
This first edition of our Baseline Scenario makes three main points. First, we are facing a serious crisis of confidence in much of the world’s financial system. Second, the Paulson Plan may well bring this crisis under control, at least for a while. But, even so, we should plan ahead for measures to deal directly with the [...]
Tweets About Us- RT @baselinescene: Cute: http://t.co/rzK8VjXl. But is it fair to call "ignorance" the result of a steady stream of lies amplified by the media? emmett_j@twitter.com (Emmett Johnson)
- RT @baselinescene: Cute: http://t.co/rzK8VjXl. But is it fair to call "ignorance" the result of a steady stream of lies amplified by the media? JoScoMac@twitter.com (Scott McLean)
- RT @baselinescene: Purebred dog shows have always been creepy. This just confirms it: http://t.co/6iu2bwjR. /JK gebersole@twitter.com (Garrett Ebersole)
- RT @baselinescene: Purebred dog shows have always been creepy. This just confirms it: http://t.co/6iu2bwjR. /JK april_harding@twitter.com (April Harding)
- RT @baselinescene: Purebred dog shows have always been creepy. This just confirms it: http://t.co/6iu2bwjR. /JK APogonowski@twitter.com (AP)
- RT @baselinescene: Purebred dog shows have always been creepy. This just confirms it: http://t.co/6iu2bwjR. /JK jamiesw@twitter.com (JamieSW)
- The Bear&Bull Blog Daily is out! http://t.co/mcAbzHbi ▸ Top stories today via @thestalwart @baselinescene bearbull@twitter.com (bearbull)
- RT @TheBrowser: Mean-Spirited, Bad Economics: @baselinescene on unemployment benefits & Republican party plans to cut them http://t.co/GVnNzAUN drooperman@twitter.com (Drew)
- Agree with RT @baselinescene: Felix Salmon mocking Jack Welch's vacuous management lesson for Facebook http://t.co/BBKIGOIl /JK Alheri@twitter.com (Lilly Evans)
- #FF for political and other insight: @SarahBarfield @BuddyRoemer @RoyBlunt @StartSnitching @delong @TheGoodReport @baselinescene normanwlucas@twitter.com (Norman Lucas)
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Baseline Scenario, October 30, 2009
October 30, 2009 in Baseline, Commentary
Yesterday morning I testified to a Joint Economic Committee of Congress hearing (update: that link may be fragile; here’s the JEC general page). The session discussed the latest GDP numbers, the impact of the fiscal stimulus earlier this year, and whether we need further fiscal expansion of any kind. I argued that a global recovery is underway and in the rest [...]