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	<title>Comments on: Ask Sheila Bair</title>
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	<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/</link>
	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
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		<title>By: Beth</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33821</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Beth]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Nov 2009 14:44:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33821</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[.... the second most powerful woman, and how to get around RegZ by overdisclosure.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8230;. the second most powerful woman, and how to get around RegZ by overdisclosure.</p>
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		<title>By: Ted K</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33800</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ted K]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Nov 2009 02:33:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33800</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Simon, I don&#039;t appreciate you throwing a dog bone of link love to your friend Paul Solman, so we can listen to 1 question from Felix Salmon and 7 questions from the public.  Next time let Paul stir up his owned damned blog traffic, if he can&#039;t stir any up on a nationally run TV show you aren&#039;t gonna save him.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Simon, I don&#8217;t appreciate you throwing a dog bone of link love to your friend Paul Solman, so we can listen to 1 question from Felix Salmon and 7 questions from the public.  Next time let Paul stir up his owned damned blog traffic, if he can&#8217;t stir any up on a nationally run TV show you aren&#8217;t gonna save him.</p>
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		<title>By: Ted K</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33746</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ted K]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:10:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33746</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If that&#039;s true they were copycats.  She did one that got quite a bit of attention in The New Yorker.  But it&#039;s good to see magazines like Mother Jones and Harpers are still on life-support.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If that&#8217;s true they were copycats.  She did one that got quite a bit of attention in The New Yorker.  But it&#8217;s good to see magazines like Mother Jones and Harpers are still on life-support.</p>
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		<title>By: DavosSherman</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33723</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[DavosSherman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 12:42:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33723</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Higher taxes?

We already work from January until September just to pay the government. 

FDR went from 60% to north of 90%, he mandated a 100% tax on those earning above 250k a year but the Suprime Court told him where to go.

With all do respect, you are not looking at the numbers! We are insolvent, all the taxes in all the world will not fix that.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Higher taxes?</p>
<p>We already work from January until September just to pay the government. </p>
<p>FDR went from 60% to north of 90%, he mandated a 100% tax on those earning above 250k a year but the Suprime Court told him where to go.</p>
<p>With all do respect, you are not looking at the numbers! We are insolvent, all the taxes in all the world will not fix that.</p>
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		<title>By: gabistan1234</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33722</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[gabistan1234]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:39:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33722</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[awesome. i love her. Mother Jones had a great profile on her either in their most recent issue or the one before.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>awesome. i love her. Mother Jones had a great profile on her either in their most recent issue or the one before.</p>
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		<title>By: Jim Coffman</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33711</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Coffman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 05:32:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33711</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[All the reasonable alternatives are painful and politically impossible.  We are doomed.

Unless, we restructure the tax scode--and yes, that means higher taxes on most, if not all of us, especially those able to pay; reasonable readjustments of benefits; an honest but painful elimination of pork and waste in domestic and defense programs; and the extraction from the finance industry of all the benefits they have received at taxpayer expense.  It also means that the taxpayers can no longer subsidize the insurance, automobile and other old-growth industries.  We&#039;ve done our bit.  If they fail, they fail.  It will be painful, but not as painful as an economy that is substantially nationalized and influenced by every tinpot politician in Washington.   

TBTF institutions are two big and must be reduced to a point where they are not a threat.  Guaranteed activities (commercial banking) must be separated from more risky activities (investment banking, trading, securitization etc.).  The latter activities should be financed only by the player-owned equity and publicly-issued debt (with full disclosure of activities, balance sheet and risk).  This will undoubtedly result in the contraction, if not demise, of wide-spread use of certain exotic instruments (the issuance and trading of which must be made fully transparent in the meantime).  Innovation will follow and will need to be carefully monitored to prevent new abuses, but at least it will be corralled by self-interest and not the &quot;heads I win, tails you lose&quot; rules of the past.  Things work much more sanely when risk is fully disclosed and understood, and born by the risk takers, not the public. 

But the reforms that follow such a restructuring will be the result of market forces, not micro-managing bureaucrats, pay czars, and ultra-complex regulatory efforts that will be subverted the moment deregulators assume power, if not earlier.

But look at our Congress.  As I said, we are doomed!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>All the reasonable alternatives are painful and politically impossible.  We are doomed.</p>
<p>Unless, we restructure the tax scode&#8211;and yes, that means higher taxes on most, if not all of us, especially those able to pay; reasonable readjustments of benefits; an honest but painful elimination of pork and waste in domestic and defense programs; and the extraction from the finance industry of all the benefits they have received at taxpayer expense.  It also means that the taxpayers can no longer subsidize the insurance, automobile and other old-growth industries.  We&#8217;ve done our bit.  If they fail, they fail.  It will be painful, but not as painful as an economy that is substantially nationalized and influenced by every tinpot politician in Washington.   </p>
<p>TBTF institutions are two big and must be reduced to a point where they are not a threat.  Guaranteed activities (commercial banking) must be separated from more risky activities (investment banking, trading, securitization etc.).  The latter activities should be financed only by the player-owned equity and publicly-issued debt (with full disclosure of activities, balance sheet and risk).  This will undoubtedly result in the contraction, if not demise, of wide-spread use of certain exotic instruments (the issuance and trading of which must be made fully transparent in the meantime).  Innovation will follow and will need to be carefully monitored to prevent new abuses, but at least it will be corralled by self-interest and not the &#8220;heads I win, tails you lose&#8221; rules of the past.  Things work much more sanely when risk is fully disclosed and understood, and born by the risk takers, not the public. </p>
<p>But the reforms that follow such a restructuring will be the result of market forces, not micro-managing bureaucrats, pay czars, and ultra-complex regulatory efforts that will be subverted the moment deregulators assume power, if not earlier.</p>
<p>But look at our Congress.  As I said, we are doomed!</p>
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		<title>By: steve</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33708</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[steve]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:48:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33708</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Are you capable of looking beyond your political and organizational self interest and back the reform measures that are in the best interest of our financial system?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Are you capable of looking beyond your political and organizational self interest and back the reform measures that are in the best interest of our financial system?</p>
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		<title>By: steve</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33707</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[steve]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:45:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33707</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Will you and Vikram do a celebrity smack down?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Will you and Vikram do a celebrity smack down?</p>
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		<title>By: jack kell</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33706</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jack kell]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:27:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33706</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[do you think the decline of us caused by this financial industry is inevitable? can the descent and responsible public servants, academics, and whatever is left in the country join force to help the inexperienced president.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>do you think the decline of us caused by this financial industry is inevitable? can the descent and responsible public servants, academics, and whatever is left in the country join force to help the inexperienced president.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33705</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Anonymous]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:27:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[do you think the decline of us caused by this financial industry is inevitable? can the descent and responsible public servants, academics, and whatever is left in the country join force to help the inexperienced president?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>do you think the decline of us caused by this financial industry is inevitable? can the descent and responsible public servants, academics, and whatever is left in the country join force to help the inexperienced president?</p>
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		<title>By: DavosSherman</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33703</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[DavosSherman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 01:11:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33703</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[@Paul Handover:

I couldn&#039;t get my question to post on their site so I don&#039;t think I&#039;ll get Sheila&#039;s answer. 

But, personally, short of some new energy invention I don&#039;t think it will have a pretty ending.

Peak population is stressing oil and other resources so I think very soon in addition to a weak currency(s) we are going to have expensive energy. Oil being omnipresent in the petrochemical farm and distribution food system we have I can say this with confidence.

And, in addition to letting the world amass 600 trillion in derivatives/shadow banking system (and that is conservative, ZeroHedge pegs it at 1600 trillion (oh joy!) we have debt as listed below.

Debt to GDP? How about Debt to GDP and Unfunded Liabilities?

GDP………….14 trillion baked 30% with imputations &amp; Hedonics
Debt…………12 trillion
Social Security.18 trillion
Medicare A……37 trillion
Medicare B……37 trillion
Medicare D……16 trillion
TARP/TALP/PPIP..11-22 trillion
2 Wars………. 2 trillion

1,028% more than we earn without backing out Clinton/Boskin Hedonics (Greek for “feels good” or weighting or imputations or the bogus deflater).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Paul Handover:</p>
<p>I couldn&#8217;t get my question to post on their site so I don&#8217;t think I&#8217;ll get Sheila&#8217;s answer. </p>
<p>But, personally, short of some new energy invention I don&#8217;t think it will have a pretty ending.</p>
<p>Peak population is stressing oil and other resources so I think very soon in addition to a weak currency(s) we are going to have expensive energy. Oil being omnipresent in the petrochemical farm and distribution food system we have I can say this with confidence.</p>
<p>And, in addition to letting the world amass 600 trillion in derivatives/shadow banking system (and that is conservative, ZeroHedge pegs it at 1600 trillion (oh joy!) we have debt as listed below.</p>
<p>Debt to GDP? How about Debt to GDP and Unfunded Liabilities?</p>
<p>GDP………….14 trillion baked 30% with imputations &amp; Hedonics<br />
Debt…………12 trillion<br />
Social Security.18 trillion<br />
Medicare A……37 trillion<br />
Medicare B……37 trillion<br />
Medicare D……16 trillion<br />
TARP/TALP/PPIP..11-22 trillion<br />
2 Wars………. 2 trillion</p>
<p>1,028% more than we earn without backing out Clinton/Boskin Hedonics (Greek for “feels good” or weighting or imputations or the bogus deflater).</p>
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		<title>By: Paul Handover</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33699</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Handover]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:23:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33699</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[DS, these references are simply staggering.  At times, it makes me wonder just how, in the end, this is all going to play out.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DS, these references are simply staggering.  At times, it makes me wonder just how, in the end, this is all going to play out.</p>
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		<title>By: DavosSherman</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33687</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[DavosSherman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 21:13:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33687</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Forgot to include the troubled bank list

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/problem-bank-list-unofficial.html]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Forgot to include the troubled bank list</p>
<p><a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/problem-bank-list-unofficial.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/problem-bank-list-unofficial.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: DavosSherman</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33683</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[DavosSherman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:46:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33683</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sheila:

1.) The problem: Conservatively there are $600,000,000,000,000.00 (600 trillion) in derivatives, $200,000,000,000,000.00 are held by 3 banks here in the US according to this Treasury report (Table 3A) http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2009-34a.pdf  .

2.) The next catalyst: By spring, if not sooner a &quot;wave&quot; of residential real estate defaults consisting of Option Arms and Alt A&#039;s will wash to shore. http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4668112n. I estimate it will be equal in size to the subprime mess 1.5 trillion in total that caused the crash of 2008. Worse, on top of this wave will be a 3.5 trillion dollar wave of CRE.

3.) The question: Your FDIC can&#039;t even close the 500 banks it should have already closed, what do you think your going to do when the shadow banking system collapses?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sheila:</p>
<p>1.) The problem: Conservatively there are $600,000,000,000,000.00 (600 trillion) in derivatives, $200,000,000,000,000.00 are held by 3 banks here in the US according to this Treasury report (Table 3A) <a href="http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2009-34a.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2009-34a.pdf</a>  .</p>
<p>2.) The next catalyst: By spring, if not sooner a &#8220;wave&#8221; of residential real estate defaults consisting of Option Arms and Alt A&#8217;s will wash to shore. <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4668112n" rel="nofollow">http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4668112n</a>. I estimate it will be equal in size to the subprime mess 1.5 trillion in total that caused the crash of 2008. Worse, on top of this wave will be a 3.5 trillion dollar wave of CRE.</p>
<p>3.) The question: Your FDIC can&#8217;t even close the 500 banks it should have already closed, what do you think your going to do when the shadow banking system collapses?</p>
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		<title>By: Ted K</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/ask-sheila-bair/#comment-33681</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ted K]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 19:58:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5489#comment-33681</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Georgia?? I don&#039;t get the reference. Many banks failed there?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Georgia?? I don&#8217;t get the reference. Many banks failed there?</p>
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