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	<title>Comments on: Low Savings, Bad Investments</title>
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	<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/</link>
	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
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		<title>By: TON</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-34078</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[TON]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Nov 2009 05:54:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-34078</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Now, inflation is a concern in many countries.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Now, inflation is a concern in many countries.</p>
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		<title>By: niken.dk</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33736</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[niken.dk]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:00:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nice tips. Thanks for share]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nice tips. Thanks for share</p>
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		<title>By: Bob Waldrop</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33700</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Waldrop]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:24:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33700</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I used to agree with this kind of analysis of social security, but the guys at the Angry Bear disagree and have some pretty persuasive math that indicates that social security could be fixed for a long time with a very modest tax boost.

http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/05/nw-plan-for-real-social-security-fix.html (or http://tinyurl.com/yjlbl92 ). It amounts to about a dollar a week per worker.  Read their math and see what you think.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I used to agree with this kind of analysis of social security, but the guys at the Angry Bear disagree and have some pretty persuasive math that indicates that social security could be fixed for a long time with a very modest tax boost.</p>
<p><a href="http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/05/nw-plan-for-real-social-security-fix.html" rel="nofollow">http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/05/nw-plan-for-real-social-security-fix.html</a> (or <a href="http://tinyurl.com/yjlbl92" rel="nofollow">http://tinyurl.com/yjlbl92</a> ). It amounts to about a dollar a week per worker.  Read their math and see what you think.</p>
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		<title>By: Bob Waldrop</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33696</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Waldrop]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:53:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have a 403-b plan, like a 401-k only for people who work for churches. If I didn&#039;t get a match from my employer, I wouldn&#039;t put one dime in it.  First of all, I&#039;ll get no tax advantages from it.  I&#039;m firmly in the next to lowest tax bracket and will stay there until I retire 11 years from now at age 67.  I&#039;ll be in the same tax bracket when I retire, so there&#039;s no advantage to the tax free schtick here in the now.

Second, the only options are a money market fund or a series of mutual funds, all of which are problematic based on things enunciated in this article.  I would have been better off systematically investing in the inflation protected t-bills, since I only leave my money in the money market fund.

Third, because of many of the issues identified in this article, the 401-k system is NOT about providing a secure retirement, it IS about channeling money into the stock market to be frittered away by the fools, thieves, and crooks who we pay to manage our mutual funds.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have a 403-b plan, like a 401-k only for people who work for churches. If I didn&#8217;t get a match from my employer, I wouldn&#8217;t put one dime in it.  First of all, I&#8217;ll get no tax advantages from it.  I&#8217;m firmly in the next to lowest tax bracket and will stay there until I retire 11 years from now at age 67.  I&#8217;ll be in the same tax bracket when I retire, so there&#8217;s no advantage to the tax free schtick here in the now.</p>
<p>Second, the only options are a money market fund or a series of mutual funds, all of which are problematic based on things enunciated in this article.  I would have been better off systematically investing in the inflation protected t-bills, since I only leave my money in the money market fund.</p>
<p>Third, because of many of the issues identified in this article, the 401-k system is NOT about providing a secure retirement, it IS about channeling money into the stock market to be frittered away by the fools, thieves, and crooks who we pay to manage our mutual funds.</p>
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		<title>By: Gordon Bonser</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33686</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gordon Bonser]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:57:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33686</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It occurred to me that there is a way to quantify the risk of that hypothetical 30-year investment in the stock market; given that you have such a long history to work with.  As people point out, index fund returns for the last ten years do not meet your historic average.  Why not a running 30-year rate of return instead?  Start with 1871 – 1901, then 1872 – 1902, then 1873 – 1903 etc.  This would yield a data set from which probabilities of return could be calculated.

Of course, I think we live in exceptional times.  The certainty of uncertainty is in our faces every day.   That said, to not use the past to predict the future is to fly blind.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It occurred to me that there is a way to quantify the risk of that hypothetical 30-year investment in the stock market; given that you have such a long history to work with.  As people point out, index fund returns for the last ten years do not meet your historic average.  Why not a running 30-year rate of return instead?  Start with 1871 – 1901, then 1872 – 1902, then 1873 – 1903 etc.  This would yield a data set from which probabilities of return could be calculated.</p>
<p>Of course, I think we live in exceptional times.  The certainty of uncertainty is in our faces every day.   That said, to not use the past to predict the future is to fly blind.</p>
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		<title>By: quidditas</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33685</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[quidditas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:56:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33685</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Also, you keep (willfully?) missing these two (I&#039;ve gathered, young) women&#039;s point, and it is not some naive &quot;anti-government&quot; point. 

Their point seems to be that smaller governments closer to the constituency they are there to serve may be more in their interests than a big distant government that may well be, in fact, defrauding them.

I don&#039;t think we can sit here today and try to pretend that our federal government in not complicit in mass fraud that not in the interests of most of the US citizenry (but which is certainly in the interests of some).

We need to kick the &quot;government is good&quot; habit. Good government is good. This government is not good.

What to do about that *must* be a real question.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Also, you keep (willfully?) missing these two (I&#8217;ve gathered, young) women&#8217;s point, and it is not some naive &#8220;anti-government&#8221; point. </p>
<p>Their point seems to be that smaller governments closer to the constituency they are there to serve may be more in their interests than a big distant government that may well be, in fact, defrauding them.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think we can sit here today and try to pretend that our federal government in not complicit in mass fraud that not in the interests of most of the US citizenry (but which is certainly in the interests of some).</p>
<p>We need to kick the &#8220;government is good&#8221; habit. Good government is good. This government is not good.</p>
<p>What to do about that *must* be a real question.</p>
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		<title>By: quidditas</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33684</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[quidditas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:47:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33684</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yes, but what is the Federal Reserve if not &quot;Businessmen&#039;s bad decisions&quot; billed as &quot;the government&quot;?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, but what is the Federal Reserve if not &#8220;Businessmen&#8217;s bad decisions&#8221; billed as &#8220;the government&#8221;?</p>
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		<title>By: Econ</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33682</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Econ]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:38:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33682</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For Americans, as Sarah has pointed out wrt remaining with the status quo there is a doom scenario over several decades that will be painful. Yet Americans will continue to be lied to by politicians of every party and the taxpaying public will vote for the greatest liars who promise no pain, ie: Morning in America again!!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For Americans, as Sarah has pointed out wrt remaining with the status quo there is a doom scenario over several decades that will be painful. Yet Americans will continue to be lied to by politicians of every party and the taxpaying public will vote for the greatest liars who promise no pain, ie: Morning in America again!!</p>
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		<title>By: Doug</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33668</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Doug]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:07:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33668</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You just need to spin it right.

Globalization is a redistribution program that takes jobs from the rich countries and give to the poorer ones, complete with high overhead and waste in the form of banks/corporations/stockholders.

See, now it doesn&#039;t sound so bad!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You just need to spin it right.</p>
<p>Globalization is a redistribution program that takes jobs from the rich countries and give to the poorer ones, complete with high overhead and waste in the form of banks/corporations/stockholders.</p>
<p>See, now it doesn&#8217;t sound so bad!</p>
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		<title>By: perkurowski</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33655</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[perkurowski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:41:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33655</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you mean that you have to trust less your children in the US than in Latin America, then I tell you that your problem is much more serious than some retirement accounts.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you mean that you have to trust less your children in the US than in Latin America, then I tell you that your problem is much more serious than some retirement accounts.</p>
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		<title>By: Jessica</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33650</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jessica]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:28:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33650</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Are you suggesting that Social Security is voluntary and offers a choice of investment options? Of course not.  I suspect that even the most devoted advocate of big government would find it difficult to defend the management/mismanagement of the Social Security &quot;trust fund,&quot; considering the towering unfunded future liability.   

I was merely pointing out that the 12.4% of income contributed to Social Security (split 50-50 between employer and employee), if managed properly, would not require large additional private savings or risk taking to provide for retirement. According to the author, &quot;we’re assuming that Social Security will be around in its current form.&quot; I do not believe one has to be &quot;anti-government&quot; to point to the failures of Social Security program or to suggest that a Federal bureaucracy is not the solution to every problem.  The Federalist-anti-Federalist debate is a truly American debate that does not require labels such as anti-government which sounds to me like &quot;right wing conspirator&quot; or &quot;anarchist.&quot;

The Galveston plan was originally voluntary  and 70% of employees participated.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Are you suggesting that Social Security is voluntary and offers a choice of investment options? Of course not.  I suspect that even the most devoted advocate of big government would find it difficult to defend the management/mismanagement of the Social Security &#8220;trust fund,&#8221; considering the towering unfunded future liability.   </p>
<p>I was merely pointing out that the 12.4% of income contributed to Social Security (split 50-50 between employer and employee), if managed properly, would not require large additional private savings or risk taking to provide for retirement. According to the author, &#8220;we’re assuming that Social Security will be around in its current form.&#8221; I do not believe one has to be &#8220;anti-government&#8221; to point to the failures of Social Security program or to suggest that a Federal bureaucracy is not the solution to every problem.  The Federalist-anti-Federalist debate is a truly American debate that does not require labels such as anti-government which sounds to me like &#8220;right wing conspirator&#8221; or &#8220;anarchist.&#8221;</p>
<p>The Galveston plan was originally voluntary  and 70% of employees participated.</p>
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		<title>By: Ted K</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33649</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ted K]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:17:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33649</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In Latin American culture that may work well, but in the USA I don&#039;t think it&#039;s a wise bet.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In Latin American culture that may work well, but in the USA I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s a wise bet.</p>
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		<title>By: Ted K</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33643</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ted K]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:43:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33643</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yes, it was the government&#039;s fault.  It&#039;s ALWAYS the government&#039;s fault.  Go read Newt Gingrich&#039;s story of how he found Catholicism after being divorced twiced and Glenda Becky&#039;s heartwrenching book about her battle with hemorrhoids.  I don&#039;t have time for displacement of responsibility for businessmen&#039;s bad decisions.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, it was the government&#8217;s fault.  It&#8217;s ALWAYS the government&#8217;s fault.  Go read Newt Gingrich&#8217;s story of how he found Catholicism after being divorced twiced and Glenda Becky&#8217;s heartwrenching book about her battle with hemorrhoids.  I don&#8217;t have time for displacement of responsibility for businessmen&#8217;s bad decisions.</p>
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		<title>By: jake chase</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33638</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jake chase]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:46:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33638</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Actually, she&#039;s right. Both the boom and the bust. Greenspan opened the money tap in &#039;98 after LTCM went bust. Y2k didn&#039;t happen, the Fed raised rates and the tech bubble collapsed.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Actually, she&#8217;s right. Both the boom and the bust. Greenspan opened the money tap in &#8217;98 after LTCM went bust. Y2k didn&#8217;t happen, the Fed raised rates and the tech bubble collapsed.</p>
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		<title>By: perkurowski</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/11/low-savings-bad-investments/#comment-33636</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[perkurowski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:55:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5435#comment-33636</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The implied difference in “anything else is not retirement saving, it’s retirement gambling.” does not really exist. In fact retirement gambling could be the only available retirement saving.

You can save a lot make good investments and still end up on the street as there are so many unknowns. At this time, when facing climate change threats, energy scarcity, the disinvestment in jobs that has paid for the low inflation the last decades and an over-indebted and overextended society, these discussions sound surrealistic to say the least.

There´s nothing as plenty of kids you love and hope they love you back as a valid retirement plan.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The implied difference in “anything else is not retirement saving, it’s retirement gambling.” does not really exist. In fact retirement gambling could be the only available retirement saving.</p>
<p>You can save a lot make good investments and still end up on the street as there are so many unknowns. At this time, when facing climate change threats, energy scarcity, the disinvestment in jobs that has paid for the low inflation the last decades and an over-indebted and overextended society, these discussions sound surrealistic to say the least.</p>
<p>There´s nothing as plenty of kids you love and hope they love you back as a valid retirement plan.</p>
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