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	<title>Comments on: Global Bubbles: The Geithner-Brown Split</title>
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	<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/</link>
	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 11 Feb 2012 08:48:43 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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	<item>
		<title>By: fwm</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33585</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[fwm]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:03:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33585</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Miskin:  Some Bubbles Are “Far Less Dangerous”

So there are good bubbles and bad bubbles. A good bubble is one where the benefits outweigh the costs. So public policy should not intervene to manage good bubbles, and by implication are endorsed.

Endorsing good bubbles implies either:

policy-makers can identify in advance which bubbles will turn out out to be good and which ones will be bad. Even if this is possible, the success of a series of good small bubbles comes with the potential addiction to same , which may eventually be dwarfed by the tsunami effect of a tail good bubble gone bad.

                     OR

policy-makers cannot identify in advance which bubbles will be good, but a bubble which looks like it might turn bad can be controlled, to keep it good. This also presumes that the steps taken can be implemented in a timely manner, and that the benefits outweigh the costs.

It all sounds like more “fed-speak” to me.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Miskin:  Some Bubbles Are “Far Less Dangerous”</p>
<p>So there are good bubbles and bad bubbles. A good bubble is one where the benefits outweigh the costs. So public policy should not intervene to manage good bubbles, and by implication are endorsed.</p>
<p>Endorsing good bubbles implies either:</p>
<p>policy-makers can identify in advance which bubbles will turn out out to be good and which ones will be bad. Even if this is possible, the success of a series of good small bubbles comes with the potential addiction to same , which may eventually be dwarfed by the tsunami effect of a tail good bubble gone bad.</p>
<p>                     OR</p>
<p>policy-makers cannot identify in advance which bubbles will be good, but a bubble which looks like it might turn bad can be controlled, to keep it good. This also presumes that the steps taken can be implemented in a timely manner, and that the benefits outweigh the costs.</p>
<p>It all sounds like more “fed-speak” to me.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Min</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33573</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Min]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:11:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33573</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mishkin: “The second category of bubble, what I call the ‘pure irrational exuberance bubble, is far less dangerous because it does not involve the cycle of leveraging against higher asset values.  Without a credit boom, the bursting of the bubble does not cause the financial system to seize up and so does much less damage”

Johnson: &quot;In other words: keep monetary policy right where it is, and don’t worry about financial regulation.&quot;

Really? It sounds to me like regulate leverage.

That jives with what I was told when I was a kid: Too much leverage caused the Great Depression.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mishkin: “The second category of bubble, what I call the ‘pure irrational exuberance bubble, is far less dangerous because it does not involve the cycle of leveraging against higher asset values.  Without a credit boom, the bursting of the bubble does not cause the financial system to seize up and so does much less damage”</p>
<p>Johnson: &#8220;In other words: keep monetary policy right where it is, and don’t worry about financial regulation.&#8221;</p>
<p>Really? It sounds to me like regulate leverage.</p>
<p>That jives with what I was told when I was a kid: Too much leverage caused the Great Depression.</p>
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		<title>By: perkurowski</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33567</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[perkurowski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:41:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33567</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You ask: Do you really think that is better to raise revenues elsewhere than the finance industry or the part of it that actually destroyed wealth and jobs?

I have over the last decade been very clear on that those who actually destroyed wealth and jobs were the financial regulators, by means of giving special incentives to banks to finance supposedly low-risk AAA sector, a sectors where the jobs of tomorrow are not created and a sector that could also turn into an unsafe place if too much capitals go there. You see our regulators had nothing but keeping the banks from failing on their agenda and that is why the banks were failing society even while they were not failing.

A windfall tax… on what banks? Your small community banks with their “risky” clientele base of small businesses or entrepreneurs which had absolutely nothing to do with this crisis but that are now paying the highest price as they get crowded out from access to bank credit? I do not think so.

If anything place a special tax on all those transactions that have been subsidized by mean of the very low capital requirements they imposed on the banks because they were supposed to be not risky. Call it a transaction tax on the AAA rated if you want. That would also target the too big to fail problem because it is in this AAA sector of the economy that the largest have grown.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You ask: Do you really think that is better to raise revenues elsewhere than the finance industry or the part of it that actually destroyed wealth and jobs?</p>
<p>I have over the last decade been very clear on that those who actually destroyed wealth and jobs were the financial regulators, by means of giving special incentives to banks to finance supposedly low-risk AAA sector, a sectors where the jobs of tomorrow are not created and a sector that could also turn into an unsafe place if too much capitals go there. You see our regulators had nothing but keeping the banks from failing on their agenda and that is why the banks were failing society even while they were not failing.</p>
<p>A windfall tax… on what banks? Your small community banks with their “risky” clientele base of small businesses or entrepreneurs which had absolutely nothing to do with this crisis but that are now paying the highest price as they get crowded out from access to bank credit? I do not think so.</p>
<p>If anything place a special tax on all those transactions that have been subsidized by mean of the very low capital requirements they imposed on the banks because they were supposed to be not risky. Call it a transaction tax on the AAA rated if you want. That would also target the too big to fail problem because it is in this AAA sector of the economy that the largest have grown.</p>
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		<title>By: M.G. in Progress</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33565</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[M.G. in Progress]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:15:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33565</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Banks are laying off and not contributing to creation of jobs at all. I do not see how a tax on their transactions or even windfall tax could affect their creation of jobs. Could we have more economic argument? Do you really think that is better to raise revenues elsewhere than the finance industry or the part of it that actually destroyed wealth and jobs?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Banks are laying off and not contributing to creation of jobs at all. I do not see how a tax on their transactions or even windfall tax could affect their creation of jobs. Could we have more economic argument? Do you really think that is better to raise revenues elsewhere than the finance industry or the part of it that actually destroyed wealth and jobs?</p>
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		<title>By: perkurowski</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33564</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[perkurowski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:04:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33564</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dean Baker writes “Since the financial sector is the source of the country&#039;s current economic and budget problems it also makes sense to have this sector bear the brunt of any new taxes that may be needed”.

Indeed you can go that route if you have a job and some good savings and can therefore afford to satisfy your lust for revenge, but if you do not have a job you should be more concerned with making sure your banks help you to create the jobs that are needed.

By the way I have no problem with the example Baker gives of the UK 0.25 percent tax on the sale or purchase of (all) stock but going from there to a “We can raise more than $140bn a year taxing financial transactions, an amount equal to 1% of GDP.”, sounds to me like pure political posturing and intellectual dishonesty.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dean Baker writes “Since the financial sector is the source of the country&#8217;s current economic and budget problems it also makes sense to have this sector bear the brunt of any new taxes that may be needed”.</p>
<p>Indeed you can go that route if you have a job and some good savings and can therefore afford to satisfy your lust for revenge, but if you do not have a job you should be more concerned with making sure your banks help you to create the jobs that are needed.</p>
<p>By the way I have no problem with the example Baker gives of the UK 0.25 percent tax on the sale or purchase of (all) stock but going from there to a “We can raise more than $140bn a year taxing financial transactions, an amount equal to 1% of GDP.”, sounds to me like pure political posturing and intellectual dishonesty.</p>
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		<title>By: M.G. in Progress</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33563</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[M.G. in Progress]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:49:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33563</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Why should it be minuscule? What kind of distortions?
Just make the polluter pays...
I agree with Dean Baker at http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/nov/09/us-wall-street-financial-transactions-tax
Whatever the purpose of the tax in question, I contend that is better than any other needed to raise revenue and fill budget deficits.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why should it be minuscule? What kind of distortions?<br />
Just make the polluter pays&#8230;<br />
I agree with Dean Baker at <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/nov/09/us-wall-street-financial-transactions-tax" rel="nofollow">http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/nov/09/us-wall-street-financial-transactions-tax</a><br />
Whatever the purpose of the tax in question, I contend that is better than any other needed to raise revenue and fill budget deficits.</p>
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		<title>By: perkurowski</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33562</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[perkurowski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:25:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33562</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Careful there, just in case, I am talking about &quot;minuscule&quot; tax that does not produce any major distortions (or revenues).

The Brazilian 2 percent tax on the other hand has the purpose of counteract what they perceive is a distortion, namely too much hot money entering Brazil. I think the old Chilean way of freezing the funds entering the country for one year, so as to ascertain the seriousness of their intentions, no one night fling there, is a better way than the Brazilian 2 percent… but that is a different debate.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Careful there, just in case, I am talking about &#8220;minuscule&#8221; tax that does not produce any major distortions (or revenues).</p>
<p>The Brazilian 2 percent tax on the other hand has the purpose of counteract what they perceive is a distortion, namely too much hot money entering Brazil. I think the old Chilean way of freezing the funds entering the country for one year, so as to ascertain the seriousness of their intentions, no one night fling there, is a better way than the Brazilian 2 percent… but that is a different debate.</p>
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		<title>By: perkurowski</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33561</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[perkurowski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:14:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33561</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am making the following point:

Large banks delve more with those “perceived risk categories” that have been benefited with very low capital requirements e.g. operations involving AAA rated companies that have a 1.6 percent bank capital requirement while small banks are more prone to be dealing with local BB+ or less rated or unrated clients which require 8 percent. This, plus the fact that they can use their own internal risk assessment programs is one of the reasons the too big to fail grow even larger.

And so, since I want to lower the requirements on those clients that are more typical of smaller and community banks, well yes in this sense this would mean, temporarily lowering the capital requirements for those small banks… that never got us into this crisis.

But it also means that larger banks, while they are rebuilding their capitals, could find it easier to carry the clients we really want and need them to carry. As I have said many times, our banks should not even be in AAA territory… that is for the capital markets.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am making the following point:</p>
<p>Large banks delve more with those “perceived risk categories” that have been benefited with very low capital requirements e.g. operations involving AAA rated companies that have a 1.6 percent bank capital requirement while small banks are more prone to be dealing with local BB+ or less rated or unrated clients which require 8 percent. This, plus the fact that they can use their own internal risk assessment programs is one of the reasons the too big to fail grow even larger.</p>
<p>And so, since I want to lower the requirements on those clients that are more typical of smaller and community banks, well yes in this sense this would mean, temporarily lowering the capital requirements for those small banks… that never got us into this crisis.</p>
<p>But it also means that larger banks, while they are rebuilding their capitals, could find it easier to carry the clients we really want and need them to carry. As I have said many times, our banks should not even be in AAA territory… that is for the capital markets.</p>
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		<title>By: M.G. in Progress</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33560</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[M.G. in Progress]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:06:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33560</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I completely agree and I have not yet read a single convincing and economic argument not to implement it immediately. I had been &lt;a href=&quot;http://mgiannini.blogspot.com/2009/11/you-owe-money-or-when-unthinkable-had.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;posting&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&quot;http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33510&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;commenting&lt;/a&gt; in the econ blogsphere and nobody can explain plainly why we cannot do it. Brazil has just imposed a similar tax of  2% on inflows of portfolio investments and nothing happens. Let&#039;s just raise revenue and make the &lt;a href=&quot;http://mgiannini.blogspot.com/2009/03/polluter-pays-principle-in-financial.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;polluters pay principle applicable&lt;/a&gt; to the finance industry.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I completely agree and I have not yet read a single convincing and economic argument not to implement it immediately. I had been <a href="http://mgiannini.blogspot.com/2009/11/you-owe-money-or-when-unthinkable-had.html" rel="nofollow">posting</a> and <a href="http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33510" rel="nofollow">commenting</a> in the econ blogsphere and nobody can explain plainly why we cannot do it. Brazil has just imposed a similar tax of  2% on inflows of portfolio investments and nothing happens. Let&#8217;s just raise revenue and make the <a href="http://mgiannini.blogspot.com/2009/03/polluter-pays-principle-in-financial.html" rel="nofollow">polluters pay principle applicable</a> to the finance industry.</p>
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		<title>By: Ted K</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33557</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ted K]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 05:47:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33557</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Are you making an argument that smaller banks should have LOWER capital requirements???  That would mean you&#039;re playing the part of Non in Superman II.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Are you making an argument that smaller banks should have LOWER capital requirements???  That would mean you&#8217;re playing the part of Non in Superman II.</p>
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		<title>By: Bayard</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33549</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bayard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 03:09:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33549</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let&#039;s think about the 1950&#039;s, when the highest marginal income tax rate was 90%.  That can be the beginning of our Leave It To Beaver argument, when people had one car, one television, and one job per household, where mothers stayed at home with their kids, and the middle class was THE class.  Sure, there were millionaires, and also poverty, but foreclosures were incredibly rare, as were bankruptcies.  Those were the days, when everyone still remember the two incredible traumas of the two prior decades:  the Great Depression, and World War II.  We were happy, as a nation, generally, and then we forgot.

The new world which has emerged is a world of substantial polar extremes, but which is controlled by the wealthiest and most powerful to the detriment of those who are not.

I feel like I am watching the last act of a world gone crazy and working its way to December 21, 2012, the date the Mayan Calendar stops.  Globally, we&#039;re in deep manure with no boots, and it&#039;s just getting worse.  When was the last time the US fought a war that should have been fought:  nearly 70 years ago.  When was the last time a CEO was paid what he was really worth:  my guess:  about 40 years ago.  Why is it necessary for those with three yachts and four homes to receive multimillion dollar bonuses:  answer:  it&#039;s not.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s think about the 1950&#8242;s, when the highest marginal income tax rate was 90%.  That can be the beginning of our Leave It To Beaver argument, when people had one car, one television, and one job per household, where mothers stayed at home with their kids, and the middle class was THE class.  Sure, there were millionaires, and also poverty, but foreclosures were incredibly rare, as were bankruptcies.  Those were the days, when everyone still remember the two incredible traumas of the two prior decades:  the Great Depression, and World War II.  We were happy, as a nation, generally, and then we forgot.</p>
<p>The new world which has emerged is a world of substantial polar extremes, but which is controlled by the wealthiest and most powerful to the detriment of those who are not.</p>
<p>I feel like I am watching the last act of a world gone crazy and working its way to December 21, 2012, the date the Mayan Calendar stops.  Globally, we&#8217;re in deep manure with no boots, and it&#8217;s just getting worse.  When was the last time the US fought a war that should have been fought:  nearly 70 years ago.  When was the last time a CEO was paid what he was really worth:  my guess:  about 40 years ago.  Why is it necessary for those with three yachts and four homes to receive multimillion dollar bonuses:  answer:  it&#8217;s not.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard Hoogesteger</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33545</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Hoogesteger]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 02:03:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33545</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Simon-While I am inclined to agree that the size of the banks contributes to the problem I think it is more complicated than that. After all the savings and loan crisis involved a large group of relatively small institutions. One part of the problem has been the relaxing of traditional accounting standards for things like capital requirements. Another part of the problem is based in bad corporate governance law. It is very difficult for stockholders to challenge sitting board members further, unlike in Britain. American stockholders are not allowed to vote on management pay. An additional problem is that here in the U.S. we don&#039;t have a proper civil service making any serious sort of regulation difficult. Of course politicians taking huge amounts of money from the companies they are expected to regulate doesn&#039;t help either.

Sure for a true competitive market you need a very large number of participants, transparency and low start-up costs, among other conditions, and none of these exist in investment banking and breaking up the big banks would help. But it is just a first step.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Simon-While I am inclined to agree that the size of the banks contributes to the problem I think it is more complicated than that. After all the savings and loan crisis involved a large group of relatively small institutions. One part of the problem has been the relaxing of traditional accounting standards for things like capital requirements. Another part of the problem is based in bad corporate governance law. It is very difficult for stockholders to challenge sitting board members further, unlike in Britain. American stockholders are not allowed to vote on management pay. An additional problem is that here in the U.S. we don&#8217;t have a proper civil service making any serious sort of regulation difficult. Of course politicians taking huge amounts of money from the companies they are expected to regulate doesn&#8217;t help either.</p>
<p>Sure for a true competitive market you need a very large number of participants, transparency and low start-up costs, among other conditions, and none of these exist in investment banking and breaking up the big banks would help. But it is just a first step.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul Handover</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33538</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Handover]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:54:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33538</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Vested interests, perhaps?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Vested interests, perhaps?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: perkurowski</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33526</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[perkurowski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:20:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33526</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well if there is room for Superman and General Zod here I guess then there is also room for me to talk about some of that kryptonite that the regulators have spread around and which affects most those we count most to help us out of this crisis creating the jobs we need, namely the entrepreneurs and the small businesses, the clients of most of our &quot;so small they can be allowed to fail&quot; banks.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ql6uac_ijtA&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;rel=0]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well if there is room for Superman and General Zod here I guess then there is also room for me to talk about some of that kryptonite that the regulators have spread around and which affects most those we count most to help us out of this crisis creating the jobs we need, namely the entrepreneurs and the small businesses, the clients of most of our &#8220;so small they can be allowed to fail&#8221; banks.</p>
<p><span style="text-align:center; display: block;"><a href="http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/"><img src="http://img.youtube.com/vi/ql6uac_ijtA/2.jpg" alt="" /></a></span></p>
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		<title>By: Per Kurowski</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/10/global-bubbles-the-geithner-brown-split/#comment-33520</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Per Kurowski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:45:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5456#comment-33520</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A minuscule Tobin Tax, a little bump on the road, to help “slow down” the financial traffic and incentivize the second thought if it can be implemented, is not idiotic at all.

Capital requirements for banks based on perceived risks, which help to “divert” the financial flows into areas just because they are supposedly risk-free even though they could also be absolutely useless, that is truly idiotic.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A minuscule Tobin Tax, a little bump on the road, to help “slow down” the financial traffic and incentivize the second thought if it can be implemented, is not idiotic at all.</p>
<p>Capital requirements for banks based on perceived risks, which help to “divert” the financial flows into areas just because they are supposedly risk-free even though they could also be absolutely useless, that is truly idiotic.</p>
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