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	<title>Comments on: Revisiting the Crime Scene</title>
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	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
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		<title>By: joedee1969</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31942</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[joedee1969]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Oct 2009 10:03:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31942</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is why who we pick for congress is important. This whole Gay thing is something else:

http://americaspeaksink.com/2009/10/charlie-crist-and-the-film-outrage/]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is why who we pick for congress is important. This whole Gay thing is something else:</p>
<p><a href="http://americaspeaksink.com/2009/10/charlie-crist-and-the-film-outrage/" rel="nofollow">http://americaspeaksink.com/2009/10/charlie-crist-and-the-film-outrage/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Ted K</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31516</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ted K]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:41:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31516</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Paul,
It&#039;s interesting that in your little dream world (and the REAL world for that matter) the CRA didn&#039;t have so much effect in fixed-rate mortgages as they did ARMS (adjustable rate mortgages).  Could it be because ARMS were only created to put banks at the advantage??? Could it be because ARMS were a pile of manure from the very beginning???  I don&#039;t suppose you or the Mortgage Bankers Association would like to talk about that.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Paul,<br />
It&#8217;s interesting that in your little dream world (and the REAL world for that matter) the CRA didn&#8217;t have so much effect in fixed-rate mortgages as they did ARMS (adjustable rate mortgages).  Could it be because ARMS were only created to put banks at the advantage??? Could it be because ARMS were a pile of manure from the very beginning???  I don&#8217;t suppose you or the Mortgage Bankers Association would like to talk about that.</p>
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		<title>By: Plebeianswillrevolt</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31505</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Plebeianswillrevolt]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:03:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31505</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[yes there is a, difference.... but especially bothersome is the scapegoat implication that Moodys were the bad guy and all these honest banks were innocent dupes.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>yes there is a, difference&#8230;. but especially bothersome is the scapegoat implication that Moodys were the bad guy and all these honest banks were innocent dupes.</p>
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		<title>By: Min</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31499</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Min]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 18:26:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31499</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Audrey: &quot;We need to take control of consumer choice.&quot;

Absolutely. And to do that we need to give the consumer more power. And to do that we need a Consumer Protection Agency.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Audrey: &#8220;We need to take control of consumer choice.&#8221;</p>
<p>Absolutely. And to do that we need to give the consumer more power. And to do that we need a Consumer Protection Agency.</p>
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		<title>By: Yakkis</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31498</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Yakkis]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 17:59:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31498</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Excuse me Audrey, I know this is off-topic, but I was wondering if you&#039;ve seen the Boogy Man lately. I&#039;ve been looking for him everywhere, under the bed, in the closet...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Excuse me Audrey, I know this is off-topic, but I was wondering if you&#8217;ve seen the Boogy Man lately. I&#8217;ve been looking for him everywhere, under the bed, in the closet&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Yakkis</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31490</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Yakkis]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:47:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31490</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My comment was more a commentary on this post rather than Russ&#039;s comment (I am a great admirer of Russ&#039;s blog).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My comment was more a commentary on this post rather than Russ&#8217;s comment (I am a great admirer of Russ&#8217;s blog).</p>
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		<title>By: Audrey</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31485</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Audrey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:10:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31485</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The CFPA would have authority to determine which products consumers can choose from.  In short, the bill would create a regulatory overlay of the entire business community, extending far beyond traditional financial services.  We need to take control of consumer choice.  How does CFPA affect you? http://www.friendsoftheuschamber.com/issues/index.cfm?ID=469]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The CFPA would have authority to determine which products consumers can choose from.  In short, the bill would create a regulatory overlay of the entire business community, extending far beyond traditional financial services.  We need to take control of consumer choice.  How does CFPA affect you? <a href="http://www.friendsoftheuschamber.com/issues/index.cfm?ID=469" rel="nofollow">http://www.friendsoftheuschamber.com/issues/index.cfm?ID=469</a></p>
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		<title>By: Yakkis</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31469</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Yakkis]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:23:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31469</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#039;s the Zombie CRA comment, killed 1000x over but continuing to haunt us.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s the Zombie CRA comment, killed 1000x over but continuing to haunt us.</p>
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		<title>By: Sam K.</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31454</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sam K.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 14:07:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31454</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is me, doing my &quot;someone&#039;s been brainwashed by the media&quot; thing again. 

A few points: there are plenty of (a) agency ARM mortgages; there are also plenty of (b) subprime fixed mortgages. The default rates on (a) are considerably lower than on (b). 

If I am a large industrial company and I&#039;m worried that my health care provider is going to go under, doesn&#039;t it make sense to buy some CDS on them? (this kind of scenario isn&#039;t that uncommon). 

The media has sensationalized a bunch of financial buzzwords-- the &quot;toxic lexicon&quot;-- and everyone just blatantly repeats it. This makes me sad. I&#039;m all for regulation, consumer protection, etc., but just calling any financial product that was in any way involved in the crisis &quot;horse manure&quot; is just silly.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is me, doing my &#8220;someone&#8217;s been brainwashed by the media&#8221; thing again. </p>
<p>A few points: there are plenty of (a) agency ARM mortgages; there are also plenty of (b) subprime fixed mortgages. The default rates on (a) are considerably lower than on (b). </p>
<p>If I am a large industrial company and I&#8217;m worried that my health care provider is going to go under, doesn&#8217;t it make sense to buy some CDS on them? (this kind of scenario isn&#8217;t that uncommon). </p>
<p>The media has sensationalized a bunch of financial buzzwords&#8211; the &#8220;toxic lexicon&#8221;&#8211; and everyone just blatantly repeats it. This makes me sad. I&#8217;m all for regulation, consumer protection, etc., but just calling any financial product that was in any way involved in the crisis &#8220;horse manure&#8221; is just silly.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31451</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:59:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31451</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ARMS mortgages were developed back in the 70&#039;s to protect the Banking industry as a result of the pre-Volker Fed&#039;s irresponsible monetary policies that led to rampant inflation. ARMS worked well for over 20 years until the abuses of the CRA began. 

The CRA was perhaps the largest  welfare scheme in American history. It pushed imprudent, risky lending practices for the less fortunate on a massive scale as a prerequisite for banks to stay within the Fed&#039;s good graces. A set of practices that encourages lending in the trillions of dollars to a special preferable  class of poor people with low FICO scores, little capital, and inability to repay the loans, will only  to financial ruin, which it unfortunately did. 

The Credit Default Swap scam needed the government guarantee to interest the market. If there was no allusion of a guarantee, many of the MBS scams wouldn&#039;t haven&#039;t taken hold as they did. Preferential government intervention into the marketplace, if not tightly controlled and fully transparent, will almost always turn into a scammer&#039;s paradise.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>ARMS mortgages were developed back in the 70&#8242;s to protect the Banking industry as a result of the pre-Volker Fed&#8217;s irresponsible monetary policies that led to rampant inflation. ARMS worked well for over 20 years until the abuses of the CRA began. </p>
<p>The CRA was perhaps the largest  welfare scheme in American history. It pushed imprudent, risky lending practices for the less fortunate on a massive scale as a prerequisite for banks to stay within the Fed&#8217;s good graces. A set of practices that encourages lending in the trillions of dollars to a special preferable  class of poor people with low FICO scores, little capital, and inability to repay the loans, will only  to financial ruin, which it unfortunately did. </p>
<p>The Credit Default Swap scam needed the government guarantee to interest the market. If there was no allusion of a guarantee, many of the MBS scams wouldn&#8217;t haven&#8217;t taken hold as they did. Preferential government intervention into the marketplace, if not tightly controlled and fully transparent, will almost always turn into a scammer&#8217;s paradise.</p>
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		<title>By: SqueakyRat</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31429</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[SqueakyRat]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 08:56:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31429</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Is there a big difference between &quot;unconscionable conflicts of interest&quot; and &quot;being bought and paid for&quot;?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is there a big difference between &#8220;unconscionable conflicts of interest&#8221; and &#8220;being bought and paid for&#8221;?</p>
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		<title>By: Uncle Billy Cunctator</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31427</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Uncle Billy Cunctator]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 08:39:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31427</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Have you checked out his blog?  This fellow&#039;s a thinker and he&#039;s thinking good thoughts.  

Now, back to my regularly scheduled bile.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Have you checked out his blog?  This fellow&#8217;s a thinker and he&#8217;s thinking good thoughts.  </p>
<p>Now, back to my regularly scheduled bile.</p>
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		<title>By: Yakkis</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31419</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Yakkis]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 06:36:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31419</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Come on Russ, you&#039;re not playing the game.  We are the arm-chair quarterbacks here trying to come up with the best way to ineffectively regulate people who can&#039;t be regulated.  You could at least play along with our high-minded but totally useless aspirations.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Come on Russ, you&#8217;re not playing the game.  We are the arm-chair quarterbacks here trying to come up with the best way to ineffectively regulate people who can&#8217;t be regulated.  You could at least play along with our high-minded but totally useless aspirations.</p>
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		<title>By: Russ</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31417</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Russ]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 06:28:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31417</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[1. Even if regulation could work in theory, this still seems too weak. Rather than figuring out what caused the crash after it has happened (that is, shutting the barn door after the horse is gone), it would be better to try to prevent it.

We should be applying the precautionary principle here. The right analogy isn&#039;t the NTSB investigating a crash after the fact but the FDA requiring drug trials to prove safety before a product is approved.*

This should be the standard for alleged financial innovations.

2. But are these innovations at all, or &quot;innovations&quot;? It&#039;s clear that nothing the finance sector has done in decades has served any social or value-adding purpose at all. The only purpose has been antisocial profit, rent-seeking and con jobs.

3. So we should reject in principle the proposition that we need to tolerate the existence of the finance racket at all.

Having established that, the only order of business would be developing the attack plan to destroy it.

4. As the current example demonstrates, &quot;regulation&quot; cannot in fact work. You cannot set an anodyne goal and then successfully restrain a powerful, entrenched racket. The evidence is dispositive.

A. The existing political cadre is too captured and corrupted to overcome the fierce resistance the rackets put up against even meager reforms like the CFPA.

B. Even if you could get something enacted which could in theory do the job, and even if you started out with regulators who were principled and willful, regulation automatically faces a permanent war of attrition vs. lobbying, bribes, extortion, and seduction.

The rackets will forever seek to undermine, evade, and gut all regulation. This is their very nature. So if you believe in regulation, you have to believe in the permanency of incorruptible, strong-willed, public-principled regulatory personnel.

I think the evidence has long since proven that you cannot trust the accident of having good personnel where the structure militates against it.

5. So the only solution is to change the structure. That means, for starters, breaking up the TBTF rackets once and for all.

[*Of course under Bush the FDA largely abdicated as well. So here too we see: regulation cannot indefinitely work where a corporatist structure systematically works against it.]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. Even if regulation could work in theory, this still seems too weak. Rather than figuring out what caused the crash after it has happened (that is, shutting the barn door after the horse is gone), it would be better to try to prevent it.</p>
<p>We should be applying the precautionary principle here. The right analogy isn&#8217;t the NTSB investigating a crash after the fact but the FDA requiring drug trials to prove safety before a product is approved.*</p>
<p>This should be the standard for alleged financial innovations.</p>
<p>2. But are these innovations at all, or &#8220;innovations&#8221;? It&#8217;s clear that nothing the finance sector has done in decades has served any social or value-adding purpose at all. The only purpose has been antisocial profit, rent-seeking and con jobs.</p>
<p>3. So we should reject in principle the proposition that we need to tolerate the existence of the finance racket at all.</p>
<p>Having established that, the only order of business would be developing the attack plan to destroy it.</p>
<p>4. As the current example demonstrates, &#8220;regulation&#8221; cannot in fact work. You cannot set an anodyne goal and then successfully restrain a powerful, entrenched racket. The evidence is dispositive.</p>
<p>A. The existing political cadre is too captured and corrupted to overcome the fierce resistance the rackets put up against even meager reforms like the CFPA.</p>
<p>B. Even if you could get something enacted which could in theory do the job, and even if you started out with regulators who were principled and willful, regulation automatically faces a permanent war of attrition vs. lobbying, bribes, extortion, and seduction.</p>
<p>The rackets will forever seek to undermine, evade, and gut all regulation. This is their very nature. So if you believe in regulation, you have to believe in the permanency of incorruptible, strong-willed, public-principled regulatory personnel.</p>
<p>I think the evidence has long since proven that you cannot trust the accident of having good personnel where the structure militates against it.</p>
<p>5. So the only solution is to change the structure. That means, for starters, breaking up the TBTF rackets once and for all.</p>
<p>[*Of course under Bush the FDA largely abdicated as well. So here too we see: regulation cannot indefinitely work where a corporatist structure systematically works against it.]</p>
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		<title>By: Yakkis</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/20/revisiting-the-crime-scene/#comment-31416</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Yakkis]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 06:23:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=5277#comment-31416</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re #2:
Are we 100% sure or only 99.99% sure?  If only 99.99% we must do a 10 year study costing 500 million dollars to get that extra .01% of certainty.
While we are investigating, I would like to see investigations of these questions?
*Do credit card interest rates above 30% cause more credit card defaults?
*Are astronomical hospital bills ever a factor in bankruptcy? (There are studies, but again are they 100% sure?)
*What role do sunspots play in mortgage defaults?
*Are banks completely innocent of all foul-play?
*Can we blame everything on another country and invade it?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re #2:<br />
Are we 100% sure or only 99.99% sure?  If only 99.99% we must do a 10 year study costing 500 million dollars to get that extra .01% of certainty.<br />
While we are investigating, I would like to see investigations of these questions?<br />
*Do credit card interest rates above 30% cause more credit card defaults?<br />
*Are astronomical hospital bills ever a factor in bankruptcy? (There are studies, but again are they 100% sure?)<br />
*What role do sunspots play in mortgage defaults?<br />
*Are banks completely innocent of all foul-play?<br />
*Can we blame everything on another country and invade it?</p>
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