– Kin Hubbard

long before the computer came along there was fraud, but every paper pusher I knew would immediately come up with all kinds of stories if one said to him/her:

“to err is human, to really foul things up you need a computer”

(it is a saying by somebody, I forgot by whom but it is extremely popular and will always be quoted by old hands with a bitter laugh)

The role of computers and the history of technology is a fascinating topic to be sure, but if I had the time to sit in mom’s basement eating Cheetos with my CB radio and thinking about how things derailed since Louie Raneri’s CMOs got a stamp from Congress, I think I’d rather us it to interview, say “Trader” Victor Sperandeo (who started out as the personal accountant for Lehman’s partner/s), or maybe a fella like William Baumol, who really should get a Nobel prize despite of Paul Samuelson’s monopolistic textbook and the nephew’s backhand.

Even better– I’d hail Judge Richard Posner on my shortwave, to ask what makes the consumer a king at all costs (or what makes kings of the fine folks who head up XYZ corporation that makes it so)?

“Car 54, are you out there?”

Were CMO’s with their puts calls, collars, butterflies, eagles and condors, and swaps really the best vehicle to repatriate all the money the blew through Walmart’s doors to China in exchange for all this decline?

All this to say that the computer is a tool (maybe like a super duper, power tool) that did not stop or change the schemes that have existed on Wall Street and across boarders long before Joe Kennedy got his, or Brown Brother’s Union Banking Corporation was shut down.

Computers have made things bigger and faster, but VWAPs aside, there’s ample evidence to suggest that very little has turned out to be more on the level or by the square.

I’m thinking it’s kind of the baseline question here, and what Mr. Obama needs to sort out as he addresses the usual suspects at his $30,000 dollar dinner on Wall Street this week.

He’d better be quick about it. Soon there will be the stories about the growth (or not) of Christmas parties on Wall Street. Where will Lloyd and Jamie book their shin digs, what will they eat, drink, as most of America asks Obama, “please Sir, I’d like some more”?

I’m sure Ronnie/Donnie Reagan/Regan had a plan for us after beating the Russians into prosperity. Maybe all we need is a good apologist like that Larry Kudlow on the TV, and the return of leverage to normal (Woodstock levels).

Hell, I’d love to have a good excuse to get my double breasted suits out storage and to reactivate the data plan on my Blackberry. I hear their going to make the buttons big enough for adult fingers, which would make it easy to login here at Baselinescenarios.com from the Netjet.

Financial Darwinism would naturally lead to “brighter” people self organizing to compete for capital. If one argues that true alpha can only exist because a market participant misprices a risk that can be offset be another, then it stands to reason that more and more complexity would be needed to confuse the participants into transacting risks under mispriced economies.
Increasingly complex packages of risk eventually become impossible to control as degrees of freedom and interdependencies balloon.
“smart” people didn’t screw capitalism. Capitalism screwed capitalism. Financial Darwinism meanwhile is alive and well.

The problem is they didn’t CARE. They were making lots of money right now. The future was somebody else’s problem. And of course, EMH justifies that point of view because “all things work out for the best in the best of all possible markets”.

Blech.

Now, holders of the “quasi-religious” (e.g. without empirical support) Efficient Market Hypothesis tell me the same thing.

So I’ll ask you the same question I asked THOSE fools:

–How do you define “done right”?

I do not doubt a moment that there are lots and lots of admirable ideas on how to do things better out there – after all you are Americans – and again no irony intended.

But there seem to be great ideas that make it big without standardisation (MP3?) and others who don’t. Here is Mark Levinson telling the fascinating story of how the container was invented and all the big firms went for it but each one had its own idea of what format/system would be best and so it didn’t catch on big for years and years.
Then came the Vietnam war of all things and the military insisted on one format of container if one wanted to be in the business of supplying them. The industry complied and after a while we had globalization – the last one is from me and I am only half joking because without a standardized shipping system a lot we are used to today wouldn’t be possible. Also I guess that when the industry standardized lots and lots of brillant technical solutions went to the garbage bin but the economy profited (at least that’s what they tell us) Here with 19:11 is Levinson telling the story himself – you can also find him with a long book talk at UCTV
http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?i=19687458&id=265678936
now the probably wonderfully efficient and kind projects, concerned medics have come up, will not take off by themselves without standardization/synchronisation and yes standardization will kill a lot of very good ideas. The skill of legislation will be to find a balance that leaves small wiggling rooms in which ideas can be developed and maybe implemented (which is difficult because it is the same wiggling rooms that open a system up to fraud).

When the computer was new there was a long time when the free lance translators I sent orders to all fought tooth and nail for a competitor program to Microsoft Word. They lost and their beloved and at least for their purposes superior program vanished because compatibility with Word never came up to a level a big customer like us needed (chemical symbols). Therefore I think that even if some of your wonderful programs would hit it big they would still have the problem to make themselves compatible so people moving from one end to the other of the US (the economy is demanding the “mobile” “flexible” worker isn’t it?) can remain with what they are used to and even take it with them to India should they be told that it is that or nothing.

You spoke of the “5 Families.” Is this just a cute reference to Lehman, Merrill, MS, etc.? Is there any basis for this name that ties-in the 5 crime families?

In any case, you really need to stick around this blog. We’ve got some brain sucking to do, and you might even enjoy it.

“Nurse practitioners drug stores” Quick service outpatient care clinics are being operated in drug stores, staffed by Nurse Practitioners which provide better service (walk-in, no appointment required) at lower cost for many things that don’t require doctor — ear infections, kids’ sore throats etc.

In the CBC Ideas Podcast of September 12, 2009 (Science at the Summit) one of the recipients of the Premier’s Summit Awards said that the incidence of cancer can be reduced by 50% in Canada by eliminating five or so risk factors (as I recall) which include … stop using tobacco, use alcohol in moderation, avoid sun (wear a hat, shirt and use sunscreen), proper diet and so forth. Imagine the annual savings in health care. Imagine how long it will take to change those behaviors. At least a generation.
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I’ll let you find the behaviors that lead to diabetes.

Another possibility is it hasn’t happened because they need more time as it undoubtably is an extremely “complex” matter which has to be carefully considered, reviewed and looked at from all angles.

Please all you Yakkis-ses out there keep in mind that some more than 15 years is nothing but a blink if looked at from a historian’s view point. And from a historian’s viewpoint I might add it would be easiest and best to resurrect the extended family with all its virtues not least the one that clans traditionally took care of their sick members without any government interference whatsoever – also I hear that Schamans are quite effective with some ailments and the rest could be efficiently taken care of by automated call centers.

So, Speed, how much longer do you estimate the market players will need to come up with something so brillant that the US shows itself to be also in this respect the shining beacon for the world as it is without doubt capable of doing in a lot of other fields – and yes I am being very serious on this point with absolutely no tongue in cheek.
And the chances could be very good for that because from what I have learned by being on this blog newly constructed systems have a good chance at being a lot better for quite some time than old ones which by necessity have to have been patched up and amended again and again but nevertheless like ours has survived two world wars and still takes good care of the patients they are supposed to serve.

Oh and btw can it be that your American doctors self-treat and do not consult a colleague as you claim because they find it too costly to see a doctor?