Comments on: The Future of Computing? http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/ What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it Sat, 21 Nov 2009 02:32:50 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Dave Everson http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-20111 Dave Everson Wed, 15 Jul 2009 16:09:59 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-20111 Transactions (accounting, purchase/production/sales orders, etc...) will probably always run on large managed systems. PCs get used for two things: communications (email, powerpoint, IM, etc...) and the M$ killer app: analytics in the form of Excel. Excel will keep M$ on top until the competition comes up with two key capabilities: decent scripting ala VBA and the real need: PIVOT TABLES. That's the sine qua non and until Google can provide that level of capability, M$ will rule the business desktop. Regarding the 'cloud': it's a colossal vendor lock-in scheme. While it will be useful for some aspects of business computing, smart people will keep their critical data close. Trusting the big vendors with your crown jewels is foolish. Try migrating off of Vendor A's cloud to Vendor B and see how hard that will be. Rent's going up... Transactions (accounting, purchase/production/sales orders, etc…) will probably always run on large managed systems. PCs get used for two things: communications (email, powerpoint, IM, etc…) and the M$ killer app: analytics in the form of Excel. Excel will keep M$ on top until the competition comes up with two key capabilities: decent scripting ala VBA and the real need: PIVOT TABLES. That’s the sine qua non and until Google can provide that level of capability, M$ will rule the business desktop.

Regarding the ‘cloud’: it’s a colossal vendor lock-in scheme. While it will be useful for some aspects of business computing, smart people will keep their critical data close. Trusting the big vendors with your crown jewels is foolish. Try migrating off of Vendor A’s cloud to Vendor B and see how hard that will be. Rent’s going up…

]]> By: Rockfish http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19909 Rockfish Mon, 13 Jul 2009 16:43:17 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19909 I think JK outlined the numerous environments of the computing world, of which Chrome OS is but one. Most businesses will still need networked, desktop based systems to do heavy lifting and provide shared data in a secure environment. This won't change anytime soon. Whether that network mimics the Web, or any other model, is immaterial. It's closed and secure. While home users can still opt to save sensitive data locally, there is a growing (merging?) market of ever-more-powerful PDA's and smaller laptops (netbooks) which are used almost exclusively for online functions. I see Chrome OS going after this market, not business desktops. It took a long time for "the cloud" to start working because it took that long for people to have regular access to high-speed data transfer. Wireless is a bit farther behind still. But it is probably the fastest growing area of consumer computing, and Google is smart to go there. As a wise man once said, there's an ass for every seat. I think JK outlined the numerous environments of the computing world, of which Chrome OS is but one.
Most businesses will still need networked, desktop based systems to do heavy lifting and provide shared data in a secure environment. This won’t change anytime soon. Whether that network mimics the Web, or any other model, is immaterial. It’s closed and secure.
While home users can still opt to save sensitive data locally, there is a growing (merging?) market of ever-more-powerful PDA’s and smaller laptops (netbooks) which are used almost exclusively for online functions. I see Chrome OS going after this market, not business desktops.
It took a long time for “the cloud” to start working because it took that long for people to have regular access to high-speed data transfer. Wireless is a bit farther behind still. But it is probably the fastest growing area of consumer computing, and Google is smart to go there.
As a wise man once said, there’s an ass for every seat.

]]> By: James http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19905 James Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:52:01 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19905 Well, being a bit of a geek, I took a quick look for you; baselinescenario.com is running on an nginx server, which functions, according to the web site, as both an HTTP server/proxy and mail server. The response header has a few amusing lines in it: X-hacker: If you're reading this, you should visit (web site)(*) and apply to join the fun, mention this header. X-nananana: Batcache Based on looking at the company, I suspect they'd be receptive to your feedback... At least changing the message so that there's a method to validate by copying the secret code. Well, being a bit of a geek, I took a quick look for you; baselinescenario.com is running on an nginx server, which functions, according to the web site, as both an HTTP server/proxy and mail server. The response header has a few amusing lines in it:

X-hacker: If you’re reading this, you should visit (web site)(*) and apply to join the fun, mention this header.
X-nananana: Batcache

Based on looking at the company, I suspect they’d be receptive to your feedback… At least changing the message so that there’s a method to validate by copying the secret code.

]]> By: David http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19900 David Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:05:48 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19900 I can think of lots of reasons pc/macs/Linux workstations won't go away. Here is just one. Google Chrome, regardless of application functionality, will never meet my security requirements of data privacy. Even if the data is stored locally on my computer, running a net app to process it exposes the data to theft. Even if Google Chrome winds up letting me download the app and keep it locally, then all I am doing is moving application storage onto the net and that is wastefully slow since bandwidth on network connections is a fraction of internal pc bus speeds. Since that is the case for millions of people, you can forget the idea that the Internet will replace offline, personal computing devices. I can think of lots of reasons pc/macs/Linux workstations won’t go away. Here is just one.

Google Chrome, regardless of application functionality, will never meet my security requirements of data privacy. Even if the data is stored locally on my computer, running a net app to process it exposes the data to theft.

Even if Google Chrome winds up letting me download the app and keep it locally, then all I am doing is moving application storage onto the net and that is wastefully slow since bandwidth on network connections is a fraction of internal pc bus speeds.

Since that is the case for millions of people, you can forget the idea that the Internet will replace offline, personal computing devices.

]]> By: Louis Rosas-Guyon http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19868 Louis Rosas-Guyon Mon, 13 Jul 2009 04:27:12 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19868 Amen. Old Lady in Red, you are my hero! Amen. Old Lady in Red, you are my hero!

]]> By: Louis Rosas-Guyon http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19867 Louis Rosas-Guyon Mon, 13 Jul 2009 04:23:44 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19867 I completely concur! The largest failure of the IT worker has been the inability to deliver on promises. I completely concur! The largest failure of the IT worker has been the inability to deliver on promises.

]]> By: Louis Rosas-Guyon http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19866 Louis Rosas-Guyon Mon, 13 Jul 2009 04:21:02 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19866 It's coming sooner than you think. Within another few years we will have a national wireless cloud. http://r2computing.blogspot.com/2009/03/bandwidth-hurdle.html It’s coming sooner than you think. Within another few years we will have a national wireless cloud.

http://r2computing.blogspot.com/2009/03/bandwidth-hurdle.html

]]> By: Louis Rosas-Guyon http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19865 Louis Rosas-Guyon Mon, 13 Jul 2009 04:18:35 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19865 If you review Google's financials you'll note they generate about 95% of their massive revenues from advertising. Until that ad revenue vanishes (which is likely...) we don't need to worry about being charged rent for our data. At least as far as Google is concerned... The freemium model, however, seems to be working successfully. Take business web service provider Zoho.com as an example. They offer basic services for free until you reach a set threshold then you must upgrade to a paying account. It is the perfect tool to use when starting a business because of the low barrier for entry (e.g. free). However if your business grows, you either start paying Zoho or spend a fortune building your own infrastructure. I think the future is in the Cloud. The Cloud Paradigm is a fact. As handheld computers (iPhone, Blackberry, etc.) improve, more people will move to the Cloud. If you review Google’s financials you’ll note they generate about 95% of their massive revenues from advertising. Until that ad revenue vanishes (which is likely…) we don’t need to worry about being charged rent for our data. At least as far as Google is concerned…

The freemium model, however, seems to be working successfully. Take business web service provider Zoho.com as an example. They offer basic services for free until you reach a set threshold then you must upgrade to a paying account. It is the perfect tool to use when starting a business because of the low barrier for entry (e.g. free). However if your business grows, you either start paying Zoho or spend a fortune building your own infrastructure.

I think the future is in the Cloud. The Cloud Paradigm is a fact. As handheld computers (iPhone, Blackberry, etc.) improve, more people will move to the Cloud.

]]> By: Steve http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19864 Steve Mon, 13 Jul 2009 04:07:29 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19864 Very relevant comment for this topic...the best technology or product rarely wins....its all about marketing and installed base. Very relevant comment for this topic…the best technology or product rarely wins….its all about marketing and installed base.

]]> By: Steve http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19862 Steve Mon, 13 Jul 2009 04:05:12 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19862 Is the Unix community going to build business class applications, or Google? Until someone figures that out this is all a joke as it pertains to adaption by business users. Is the Unix community going to build business class applications, or Google? Until someone figures that out this is all a joke as it pertains to adaption by business users.

]]> By: Steve http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19861 Steve Mon, 13 Jul 2009 04:02:31 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19861 So when will anyone port a serious business app to Chrome? I will not hold my breath on that one... So when will anyone port a serious business app to Chrome? I will not hold my breath on that one…

]]> By: pacr http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19856 pacr Mon, 13 Jul 2009 03:40:48 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19856 Bingo. Computing has to change the way business takes place. All we have done so far is to overlay expensive technology onto old organizational structures. Then again we have to change academia, the law, all the other professions etc. They are all bogged down in ancient ways of life. The much sought after productivity is very far off. Until the 'organization' is re-invented computing will disappoint. As an aside: I always smile when the tech guys announce the next great thing. Maybe they should focus on getting that last great thing to be reliable first? Bingo.
Computing has to change the way business takes place. All we have done so far is to overlay expensive technology onto old organizational structures.
Then again we have to change academia, the law, all the other professions etc. They are all bogged down in ancient ways of life.
The much sought after productivity is very far off.
Until the ‘organization’ is re-invented computing will disappoint.

As an aside: I always smile when the tech guys announce the next great thing. Maybe they should focus on getting that last great thing to be reliable first?

]]> By: Middle-aged lady in Red http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19810 Middle-aged lady in Red Sun, 12 Jul 2009 18:13:04 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19810 I just hope that Chrome-OS is a little more secure than Chrome the browser, which stores passwords in an unencrypted file. Firefox still beats Chrome because its add-ons let you turn off Java to fend off malicious websites, and block ads (AdBlock Plus). Both of these are of course NOT available on Chrome, because of Google's ad-driven business model. I just hope that Chrome-OS is a little more secure than Chrome the browser, which stores passwords in an unencrypted file. Firefox still beats Chrome because its add-ons let you turn off Java to fend off malicious websites, and block ads (AdBlock Plus). Both of these are of course NOT available on Chrome, because of Google’s ad-driven business model.

]]> By: b. http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19791 b. Sun, 12 Jul 2009 14:50:21 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19791 The productivity gains from computers are limited because of the limitations of corporate structures. IT is a bureaucracy multiplier - historically, IBM extended the lease of life on unsustainable organization patterns. The consequences are much like 1914 - musket warfare pitted against barbed wire and machine guns. The productivity gains from computers are limited because of the limitations of corporate structures. IT is a bureaucracy multiplier – historically, IBM extended the lease of life on unsustainable organization patterns. The consequences are much like 1914 – musket warfare pitted against barbed wire and machine guns.

]]> By: btraven http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/10/the-future-of-computing/#comment-19765 btraven Sun, 12 Jul 2009 04:32:17 +0000 http://baselinescenario.com/?p=4329#comment-19765 I was a mainframe programmer. Over a decade ago I was predicting that eventually things would come full circle, and the servers of the client-server model would essentially be mainframes, and the clients would be thin (i.e. not doing a lot of processing on them.) I also think that eventually there will be public intranets that people will subscribe to - that will provide a safer environment, with managed security. I was a mainframe programmer. Over a decade ago I was predicting that eventually things would come full circle, and the servers of the client-server model would essentially be mainframes, and the clients would be thin (i.e. not doing a lot of processing on them.)

I also think that eventually there will be public intranets that people will subscribe to – that will provide a safer environment, with managed security.

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