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	<title>Comments on: Warrant Sales Could Cost Government $10 Billion</title>
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	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
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		<title>By: Art</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15213</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Art]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2009 19:43:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15213</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Agreed. My first post was semantic pedantry. I&#039;ll leave it to the economists to explain whether a foregone profit can be considered a cost (maybe a type of opportunity cost or something) but I think when read colloquially the term cost means &quot;expense&quot; or something you pay out of pocket. Clearly that is not the case with the warrants. So I took exception with the use of the term cost, which by the way is not used in the Bloomberg article. And I would also quibble with that article&#039;s title &quot;TARP Warrants Show Banks May Reap ‘Ruthless Bargain.’&quot; Whoever coined the title I think misundertood (or simply turned it around to be sensational) what Rep. Miller said:

“For once we’d like to get a fair value when we come into contact with the banking system,” said Representative Brad Miller, a North Carolina Democrat and chairman of the Investigations and Oversight Subcommittee of House Science and Technology Committee. “We don’t want a ruthless bargain.”

Miller is saying he wants to cut a fair deal, not a ruthless bargain, on behalf of taxpayers.

You all probably know that one of the purposes of TARP is &quot;to ensure that [TARP] facilities are used in a manner that maximizes overall returns to the taxpayers of the United States.&quot; EESA § 2(2)(C). So Treasury is not supposed to give away the store for sure. Of course the first purpose is &quot;to restore liquidity and stability to the financial system of the United States.&quot; EESA § 2(1). &quot;Maximize&quot; is a strong mandate yet Treasury can always accept less returns on the theory that it makes the participant banks more stable.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agreed. My first post was semantic pedantry. I&#8217;ll leave it to the economists to explain whether a foregone profit can be considered a cost (maybe a type of opportunity cost or something) but I think when read colloquially the term cost means &#8220;expense&#8221; or something you pay out of pocket. Clearly that is not the case with the warrants. So I took exception with the use of the term cost, which by the way is not used in the Bloomberg article. And I would also quibble with that article&#8217;s title &#8220;TARP Warrants Show Banks May Reap ‘Ruthless Bargain.’&#8221; Whoever coined the title I think misundertood (or simply turned it around to be sensational) what Rep. Miller said:</p>
<p>“For once we’d like to get a fair value when we come into contact with the banking system,” said Representative Brad Miller, a North Carolina Democrat and chairman of the Investigations and Oversight Subcommittee of House Science and Technology Committee. “We don’t want a ruthless bargain.”</p>
<p>Miller is saying he wants to cut a fair deal, not a ruthless bargain, on behalf of taxpayers.</p>
<p>You all probably know that one of the purposes of TARP is &#8220;to ensure that [TARP] facilities are used in a manner that maximizes overall returns to the taxpayers of the United States.&#8221; EESA § 2(2)(C). So Treasury is not supposed to give away the store for sure. Of course the first purpose is &#8220;to restore liquidity and stability to the financial system of the United States.&#8221; EESA § 2(1). &#8220;Maximize&#8221; is a strong mandate yet Treasury can always accept less returns on the theory that it makes the participant banks more stable.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15192</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2009 16:25:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15192</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When you claim the warrant sales would &#039;cost&#039; the government, are you saying the government would recoup less than it&#039;s investment in the deal based on the purchase price or miss out on profiting by selling them back at their purchase price when the could be sold at a higher price?

In my mind there is a big difference.  I have no problem with the government breaking even on the deal even if it means the banks made money by getting access to absurdly cheap capital.  I don&#039;t like the banks any more than the next guy but also understand that we need a strong, or at least solvent, banking system and as long as the taxpayer isn&#039;t actually losing money in the transaction, having the banks become fully independent sooner rather than later is a good thing.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When you claim the warrant sales would &#8216;cost&#8217; the government, are you saying the government would recoup less than it&#8217;s investment in the deal based on the purchase price or miss out on profiting by selling them back at their purchase price when the could be sold at a higher price?</p>
<p>In my mind there is a big difference.  I have no problem with the government breaking even on the deal even if it means the banks made money by getting access to absurdly cheap capital.  I don&#8217;t like the banks any more than the next guy but also understand that we need a strong, or at least solvent, banking system and as long as the taxpayer isn&#8217;t actually losing money in the transaction, having the banks become fully independent sooner rather than later is a good thing.</p>
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		<title>By: ba feed &#187; Two Disagreeable Questions for Ben Bernanke, by Arnold Kling</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15191</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[ba feed &#187; Two Disagreeable Questions for Ben Bernanke, by Arnold Kling]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2009 16:17:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15191</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] How does it turn out that it is always in the public interest to do this? In fact, I just saw this and [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] How does it turn out that it is always in the public interest to do this? In fact, I just saw this and [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Option Pricing for Beginners</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15184</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Option Pricing for Beginners]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2009 05:31:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15184</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] had two posts so far on the terms under which Treasury sold back to Old National the warrants on Old National [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] had two posts so far on the terms under which Treasury sold back to Old National the warrants on Old National [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Option Pricing for Beginners &#171; The Baseline Scenario</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15178</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Option Pricing for Beginners &#171; The Baseline Scenario]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2009 02:53:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15178</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] had two posts so far on the terms under which Treasury sold back to Old National the warrants on Old National [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] had two posts so far on the terms under which Treasury sold back to Old National the warrants on Old National [...]</p>
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		<title>By: q</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15172</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[q]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2009 00:08:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15172</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I and another commenter go through some of the math on this other thread here: http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/19/tarp-warrant-pricing-old-national/

After looking at this a few times I think the Treasury got a decent deal.  Of course it depends very strongly on your assumptions, and so reasonable folks can disagree.

No idea though why the treasury forced the sale.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I and another commenter go through some of the math on this other thread here: <a href="http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/19/tarp-warrant-pricing-old-national/" rel="nofollow">http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/19/tarp-warrant-pricing-old-national/</a></p>
<p>After looking at this a few times I think the Treasury got a decent deal.  Of course it depends very strongly on your assumptions, and so reasonable folks can disagree.</p>
<p>No idea though why the treasury forced the sale.</p>
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		<title>By: q</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15170</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[q]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2009 00:01:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15170</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[it&#039;s likely to make money except in the case of a huge catastrophe.  however, that&#039;s no certain proposition.  it is putting taxpayer money at risk directly and gets the government in a business where it shouldn&#039;t be.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>it&#8217;s likely to make money except in the case of a huge catastrophe.  however, that&#8217;s no certain proposition.  it is putting taxpayer money at risk directly and gets the government in a business where it shouldn&#8217;t be.</p>
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		<title>By: Art</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15153</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Art]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 21:01:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15153</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well I hope you had a good laugh, honestly I do. But it still looks to me like Treasury made money on this particular deal. They got all their TARP money back plus a $1.2 million kicker. I do not disagree that they could have held out for more, or that someone else might pay more for those warrants than the bank did. But is the Treasury out of pocket on this? If so that&#039;s scandalous.

Maybe somebody here could answer a question that&#039;s been bugging me for a while. Is the FDIC&#039;s TLGP a money maker? Participants are paying a fee for the guarantee. So far as I know there have been no defaults on these effectively subsidized obligations. Is that costing the taxpayers money? I think Bernanke said it was going to make money.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well I hope you had a good laugh, honestly I do. But it still looks to me like Treasury made money on this particular deal. They got all their TARP money back plus a $1.2 million kicker. I do not disagree that they could have held out for more, or that someone else might pay more for those warrants than the bank did. But is the Treasury out of pocket on this? If so that&#8217;s scandalous.</p>
<p>Maybe somebody here could answer a question that&#8217;s been bugging me for a while. Is the FDIC&#8217;s TLGP a money maker? Participants are paying a fee for the guarantee. So far as I know there have been no defaults on these effectively subsidized obligations. Is that costing the taxpayers money? I think Bernanke said it was going to make money.</p>
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		<title>By: q</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15141</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[q]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 19:41:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15141</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[you mean &#039;treasury got 1.50&#039;

if it was a bad deal, that was because these are long dated options and so should be worth much more than short dated options.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>you mean &#8216;treasury got 1.50&#8242;</p>
<p>if it was a bad deal, that was because these are long dated options and so should be worth much more than short dated options.</p>
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		<title>By: Russ</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15138</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Russ]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 18:58:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15138</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yes, that Treasury was receiving warrants was sold as part of the &quot;upside&quot; for the taxpayer.

Now we see that not only was this, like every other TARP-related assurance, a fraud, but it&#039;s even being used as another illegal laundering mechanism.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, that Treasury was receiving warrants was sold as part of the &#8220;upside&#8221; for the taxpayer.</p>
<p>Now we see that not only was this, like every other TARP-related assurance, a fraud, but it&#8217;s even being used as another illegal laundering mechanism.</p>
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		<title>By: winstongator</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15135</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[winstongator]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 18:20:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15135</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How much do options to buy ONB @ $18 cost today?  The quote I saw was $0.75-$1.35.  Treasury paid $1.50.  Why was this such a bad deal?

Treasury made an equivalent 7.4% annual yield on their ONB investment - is that bad in this environment?  Will we see that from all the tarp funds?  Is this nearly as important as the preferred -&gt; common swap?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How much do options to buy ONB @ $18 cost today?  The quote I saw was $0.75-$1.35.  Treasury paid $1.50.  Why was this such a bad deal?</p>
<p>Treasury made an equivalent 7.4% annual yield on their ONB investment &#8211; is that bad in this environment?  Will we see that from all the tarp funds?  Is this nearly as important as the preferred -&gt; common swap?</p>
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		<title>By: Wayne Martin</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15133</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Wayne Martin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 18:16:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15133</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Isn&#039;t this the same scenario that Elizabeth Warren documented a few months ago in her TARP oversight work?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Isn&#8217;t this the same scenario that Elizabeth Warren documented a few months ago in her TARP oversight work?</p>
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		<title>By: Nemo</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15130</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nemo]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 17:44:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15130</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Just to be clear, I did not suggest &quot;exercising&quot; the warrants.  As you say, that would be stupid.  I suggested &lt;i&gt;auctioning them off&lt;/i&gt;.

Holding them to maturity would also be fine.

Weren&#039;t these warrants pitched as a way for the &quot;taxpayer to participate on the upside, if any&quot;?  Oh well, never mind, move on.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just to be clear, I did not suggest &#8220;exercising&#8221; the warrants.  As you say, that would be stupid.  I suggested <i>auctioning them off</i>.</p>
<p>Holding them to maturity would also be fine.</p>
<p>Weren&#8217;t these warrants pitched as a way for the &#8220;taxpayer to participate on the upside, if any&#8221;?  Oh well, never mind, move on.</p>
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		<title>By: q</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15125</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[q]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 17:18:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15125</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[that&#039;s what makes the most sense.  in fact the govt should hold them to maturity (option pricing theory says that it almost never makes sense to prematurely exercise a warrant).

as far as i can tell the only reason the treasury is selling them is to release the TARP restrictions, which they could do by fiat.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>that&#8217;s what makes the most sense.  in fact the govt should hold them to maturity (option pricing theory says that it almost never makes sense to prematurely exercise a warrant).</p>
<p>as far as i can tell the only reason the treasury is selling them is to release the TARP restrictions, which they could do by fiat.</p>
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		<title>By: Min</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/22/warrant-sales-could-cost-government-10-billion/#comment-15118</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Min]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 16:43:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3809#comment-15118</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nemo: &quot;The best course for taxpayers would be simply to hold the warrants for (say) five years and then to auction them off. That will never happen because we do not own our government anymore.&quot;

Yes. I was shocked by the warrant sale at this point in time. I thought that the idea was that, assuming that the bailouts and other government action enabled a recovery, the sale of the warrants ***after the recovery*** would help the taxpayers recoup. Wrong again! ]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nemo: &#8220;The best course for taxpayers would be simply to hold the warrants for (say) five years and then to auction them off. That will never happen because we do not own our government anymore.&#8221;</p>
<p>Yes. I was shocked by the warrant sale at this point in time. I thought that the idea was that, assuming that the bailouts and other government action enabled a recovery, the sale of the warrants ***after the recovery*** would help the taxpayers recoup. Wrong again!</p>
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