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	<title>Comments on: Is The Crisis Over Yet? The CBO Weighs In</title>
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	<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/</link>
	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
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		<title>By: Del</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14818</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Del]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 May 2009 22:31:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14818</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I guess that both of us have observed from the inside the farce of the HIPC (Highly indebted poor countries) efforts by the Fund and the Bank, with its PRGFs and PSRPs, Trust Funds, etc. In the process, defaulting countries would be passed, if possible, from Bank loan terms to IDA terms. There has been a total lack of transparency in the accompanying resource transfer process and the conflicts of interest governing the actions of the Fund and the Bank. It is indeed disappointing that you appear to be endorsing the pap about the &quot;Senior Creditor&quot; status of the Fund and the Bank. I hope that your participation in the CBO advisory panel demonstrates more intellectual honesty.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I guess that both of us have observed from the inside the farce of the HIPC (Highly indebted poor countries) efforts by the Fund and the Bank, with its PRGFs and PSRPs, Trust Funds, etc. In the process, defaulting countries would be passed, if possible, from Bank loan terms to IDA terms. There has been a total lack of transparency in the accompanying resource transfer process and the conflicts of interest governing the actions of the Fund and the Bank. It is indeed disappointing that you appear to be endorsing the pap about the &#8220;Senior Creditor&#8221; status of the Fund and the Bank. I hope that your participation in the CBO advisory panel demonstrates more intellectual honesty.</p>
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		<title>By: SF</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14731</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[SF]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 May 2009 04:15:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The only name calling deranged belligerent I see here is you.  Bush is gone.  Now it is Obama that has overstepped his Constitutional authority and deserves criticism.  Your blind acceptance and support of his actions make you the partisan foot soldier you purport to detest.  There is widespread corruption in out government and the current point man is Barack Obama.  I think you would be better served checking our current &quot;ruler&quot; (as some of his supporters refer to him) and the current group in power.  They have shown contempt for the law especially to those parts governing private property.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The only name calling deranged belligerent I see here is you.  Bush is gone.  Now it is Obama that has overstepped his Constitutional authority and deserves criticism.  Your blind acceptance and support of his actions make you the partisan foot soldier you purport to detest.  There is widespread corruption in out government and the current point man is Barack Obama.  I think you would be better served checking our current &#8220;ruler&#8221; (as some of his supporters refer to him) and the current group in power.  They have shown contempt for the law especially to those parts governing private property.</p>
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		<title>By: Economics and Investing: &#124; Theology Today</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14722</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Economics and Investing: &#124; Theology Today]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 May 2009 02:57:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14722</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] GG sent us this: CBO admits for first time chance IMF may default [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] GG sent us this: CBO admits for first time chance IMF may default [...]</p>
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		<title>By: &#187; Financial News Update - 05/18/09 NoisyRoom.net: “Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation in the face of tyranny is no virtue.” Barry Goldwater</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14684</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[&#187; Financial News Update - 05/18/09 NoisyRoom.net: “Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation in the face of tyranny is no virtue.” Barry Goldwater]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 May 2009 20:01:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14684</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] CBO admits for first time chance IMF may default [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] CBO admits for first time chance IMF may default [...]</p>
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		<title>By: anton</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14645</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[anton]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 May 2009 15:30:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14645</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Everything hinges on the reality that the panic drove investors into cash. This resulted in yields on cash &quot;investments&quot; dropping to zero. This resulted in the holders of cash taking renewed risk in their search for yield. This resulted in equity markets rallying despite the fact that ALL the global economic fundamentals are still profoundly sick. The next step .....investors wake up to the reality that their capital is still very much at risk and that yield is of secondary importance. The next step will be new market lows]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Everything hinges on the reality that the panic drove investors into cash. This resulted in yields on cash &#8220;investments&#8221; dropping to zero. This resulted in the holders of cash taking renewed risk in their search for yield. This resulted in equity markets rallying despite the fact that ALL the global economic fundamentals are still profoundly sick. The next step &#8230;..investors wake up to the reality that their capital is still very much at risk and that yield is of secondary importance. The next step will be new market lows</p>
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		<title>By: Tarus</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14621</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tarus]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 May 2009 04:19:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14621</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Your arguments are precise and cogent to say the least. I would generally say something like: Let&#039;s hope for their actions to create some sort of miracle for all of us. But as you well know, even miracles must ultimately make sense - at least the real ones anyway. 
 
Getting back to your point, I concur that the administration seems to only want to put humpty-dumpty back together again w/o addressing the root causes of this crisis.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Your arguments are precise and cogent to say the least. I would generally say something like: Let&#8217;s hope for their actions to create some sort of miracle for all of us. But as you well know, even miracles must ultimately make sense &#8211; at least the real ones anyway. </p>
<p>Getting back to your point, I concur that the administration seems to only want to put humpty-dumpty back together again w/o addressing the root causes of this crisis.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14555</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 May 2009 15:19:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14555</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Anne-

One could make a good argument that the &quot;panic&quot; started in September when Paulsen and Bernacke alarmed with market with their demands for a immediate bailout. Their alarm was akin to screaming &quot;fire&quot; in a crowded theatre, and in this case investors rushed to the exits.  To add insult to injury that bailout did not achieve it&#039;s stated goal avoiding a crash in commercial and residential lending. 

Bush had a &#039;hands off&quot; managerial style where he let his department heads often run amok. Which Bernacke and Paulsen surely did in the case of the bailout. So  Bush must take responsibility in part for the collapse. He also let the SEC relax capital reserve standards for investment banks, an incredibly dumb move. Plus while he did try to reform Fannie and Freddie, he never really invested much political capital in doing so and never informed the public of the magnitude of the potential risk that quasi public agencies egregious practices could have on this country&#039;s economic future.   


Jude- talk about a wingnut. What do you call it when a President disregards completely bankruptcy law and strong arms  investment banks that he now controls into relinquishing their fiduciary responsibility to their bondholder clients? You&#039;re right,  maybe &quot;creeping socialism&quot; isn&#039;t the right term, perhaps &quot;fascism&#039; would be better. 

The underlying reason why all of Geithner&#039;s public/private partnership schemes won&#039;t work is that any level headed CEO is not going to get in bed with the government  headed by a guy who abandons the rule of law on whim for purely short term political advantage.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anne-</p>
<p>One could make a good argument that the &#8220;panic&#8221; started in September when Paulsen and Bernacke alarmed with market with their demands for a immediate bailout. Their alarm was akin to screaming &#8220;fire&#8221; in a crowded theatre, and in this case investors rushed to the exits.  To add insult to injury that bailout did not achieve it&#8217;s stated goal avoiding a crash in commercial and residential lending. </p>
<p>Bush had a &#8216;hands off&#8221; managerial style where he let his department heads often run amok. Which Bernacke and Paulsen surely did in the case of the bailout. So  Bush must take responsibility in part for the collapse. He also let the SEC relax capital reserve standards for investment banks, an incredibly dumb move. Plus while he did try to reform Fannie and Freddie, he never really invested much political capital in doing so and never informed the public of the magnitude of the potential risk that quasi public agencies egregious practices could have on this country&#8217;s economic future.   </p>
<p>Jude- talk about a wingnut. What do you call it when a President disregards completely bankruptcy law and strong arms  investment banks that he now controls into relinquishing their fiduciary responsibility to their bondholder clients? You&#8217;re right,  maybe &#8220;creeping socialism&#8221; isn&#8217;t the right term, perhaps &#8220;fascism&#8217; would be better. </p>
<p>The underlying reason why all of Geithner&#8217;s public/private partnership schemes won&#8217;t work is that any level headed CEO is not going to get in bed with the government  headed by a guy who abandons the rule of law on whim for purely short term political advantage.</p>
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		<title>By: Jude</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14502</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jude]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 May 2009 01:43:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14502</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Anne:  Paul is a wingnut.  Don&#039;t dance with crazy people.  &quot;Creeping socialism, blah blah blah, rule of law&quot; is the Neocon talkingpoint technique of blaming the victim for what the accuser is doing:  Bush&#039;s juggernaut of Corporate Socialism &amp; full-frontal assault on the rule of law.

Arguments with rabid wingnuts leads to tiny attempts to appease them with small &quot;narrative concessions&quot;:  &quot;Yes, well, both sides share some blame&quot; you will eventually tell them.  Then they will build these crumbs into a threshhold narrative that will reverse their political fortunes.

The resurgence of the rabid is inevitable.  Because too many sane people try to compromise with clearly deranged belligerents.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anne:  Paul is a wingnut.  Don&#8217;t dance with crazy people.  &#8220;Creeping socialism, blah blah blah, rule of law&#8221; is the Neocon talkingpoint technique of blaming the victim for what the accuser is doing:  Bush&#8217;s juggernaut of Corporate Socialism &amp; full-frontal assault on the rule of law.</p>
<p>Arguments with rabid wingnuts leads to tiny attempts to appease them with small &#8220;narrative concessions&#8221;:  &#8220;Yes, well, both sides share some blame&#8221; you will eventually tell them.  Then they will build these crumbs into a threshhold narrative that will reverse their political fortunes.</p>
<p>The resurgence of the rabid is inevitable.  Because too many sane people try to compromise with clearly deranged belligerents.</p>
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		<title>By: Carol</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14486</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Carol]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 May 2009 20:19:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14486</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The first panic is over. There is no reason why we cannot have a second panic. To think otherwise is hubris (defined as &quot;overweening pride, superciliousness, or arrogance, often resulting in fatal retribution or nemesis,&quot; according to Wikipedia, and my favourite word these days). Anyone who does not prepare for another crisis is asking for trouble.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The first panic is over. There is no reason why we cannot have a second panic. To think otherwise is hubris (defined as &#8220;overweening pride, superciliousness, or arrogance, often resulting in fatal retribution or nemesis,&#8221; according to Wikipedia, and my favourite word these days). Anyone who does not prepare for another crisis is asking for trouble.</p>
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		<title>By: frances snoot</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14464</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[frances snoot]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 May 2009 14:56:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14464</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;we are out of the panic phase of the crisis-in large part because the US fiscal stimulus has reassured people worldwide, but also because President Obama has had a broader calming effect.&quot;

How?  

How has President Obama had a broader calming effect?  When Obama fired the CEO of GM, I did not feel calm.  When the GM preferred shareholders were snubbed and frauded by our new &quot;car czar&quot; many felt a degree of panic.  But when Obama threatens to fire all the staff at 5000 public schools in the US, I felt definate alarm.  

Might you please reassure we dear readers as to how Obama is calming with some exact evidence or antidotes?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;we are out of the panic phase of the crisis-in large part because the US fiscal stimulus has reassured people worldwide, but also because President Obama has had a broader calming effect.&#8221;</p>
<p>How?  </p>
<p>How has President Obama had a broader calming effect?  When Obama fired the CEO of GM, I did not feel calm.  When the GM preferred shareholders were snubbed and frauded by our new &#8220;car czar&#8221; many felt a degree of panic.  But when Obama threatens to fire all the staff at 5000 public schools in the US, I felt definate alarm.  </p>
<p>Might you please reassure we dear readers as to how Obama is calming with some exact evidence or antidotes?</p>
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		<title>By: If you&#8217;re not petrified, you&#8217;re not paying attention to the 5% chance of complete collapse of global financial system</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14450</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[If you&#8217;re not petrified, you&#8217;re not paying attention to the 5% chance of complete collapse of global financial system]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 May 2009 09:29:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14450</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] CBO says there is 5% chance of IMF defaulting [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] CBO says there is 5% chance of IMF defaulting [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Bryan</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14446</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bryan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 May 2009 06:41:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14446</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Just curious about comments here stating Obama has been a calming influence, does anyone remember him and his administration claiming &#039;crises&#039; for 4-5 months in order to get his stimulus package passed.  In one speech he used the word 26 times.    

If one believes his actions now are calming the market, then one would also have to believe that his previous comments were creating instability in the market.  Then I have to ask why would the President want to influence a market downward if it wasn&#039;t warranted?

As for Paulson&#039;s plan, wasn&#039;t it originally 3 pages?  After the Senate got ahold of it, it was over 1000 pages.  My point here is that the Administration, Congress, and Obama who voted for the measure and publically supported it are all responsble for it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just curious about comments here stating Obama has been a calming influence, does anyone remember him and his administration claiming &#8216;crises&#8217; for 4-5 months in order to get his stimulus package passed.  In one speech he used the word 26 times.    </p>
<p>If one believes his actions now are calming the market, then one would also have to believe that his previous comments were creating instability in the market.  Then I have to ask why would the President want to influence a market downward if it wasn&#8217;t warranted?</p>
<p>As for Paulson&#8217;s plan, wasn&#8217;t it originally 3 pages?  After the Senate got ahold of it, it was over 1000 pages.  My point here is that the Administration, Congress, and Obama who voted for the measure and publically supported it are all responsble for it.</p>
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		<title>By: Anantha Nageswaran</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14443</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Anantha Nageswaran]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 May 2009 05:29:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14443</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Is there any difference between what you wrote in NYT&#039;s Economix and your comment on whether Larry Summers was another Gordon Brown? In four days, have you become less pessimistic or more optimistic?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is there any difference between what you wrote in NYT&#8217;s Economix and your comment on whether Larry Summers was another Gordon Brown? In four days, have you become less pessimistic or more optimistic?</p>
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		<title>By: bob goodwin</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14439</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[bob goodwin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 May 2009 04:42:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14439</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When you talk about the panic phase being over, I assume you mean panic in the financial markets, as that is the usual basis for the term.  But even here, there are two interpretations possible, one is that the great unwind continues and further depresses asset prices (which is likely if the fed printing presses slow - and this in turn is likely if the ECB doesn&#039;t join in.), and the other is that uncertainty causes an avalanche of selling.  What triggers the first leg of selling  may be over, but secondary effects can drag main street.  In other words there could still be a factory, and labor market panic.

I think this is like saying &quot;1932 was post panic&quot;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When you talk about the panic phase being over, I assume you mean panic in the financial markets, as that is the usual basis for the term.  But even here, there are two interpretations possible, one is that the great unwind continues and further depresses asset prices (which is likely if the fed printing presses slow &#8211; and this in turn is likely if the ECB doesn&#8217;t join in.), and the other is that uncertainty causes an avalanche of selling.  What triggers the first leg of selling  may be over, but secondary effects can drag main street.  In other words there could still be a factory, and labor market panic.</p>
<p>I think this is like saying &#8220;1932 was post panic&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Financial Analysts Seminars</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/15/is-the-crisis-over-yet-the-cbo-weighs-in/#comment-14428</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Financial Analysts Seminars]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 May 2009 03:21:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3678#comment-14428</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[i agree that the crisis is not over and there is no zero probability, everything can happen, we must be careful.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i agree that the crisis is not over and there is no zero probability, everything can happen, we must be careful.</p>
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