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	<title>Comments on: GDP Growth Rates for Beginners</title>
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		<title>By: Leigh Caldwell</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12986</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Leigh Caldwell]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2009 22:28:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3500#comment-12986</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That may be so, I have no data either way. The point is that it&#039;s still Chinese GDP. The division between profits and wages (or whatever the equivalent distinction is in China) is secondary.

Incidentally, even if workers in China do receive reasonable wages, there&#039;s an argument that the high levels of Chinese private saving are just a disguised tax. I wonder whether the average Chinese citizen will get any kind of reasonable return on the 40-50% of their income that is saved on their behalf.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That may be so, I have no data either way. The point is that it&#8217;s still Chinese GDP. The division between profits and wages (or whatever the equivalent distinction is in China) is secondary.</p>
<p>Incidentally, even if workers in China do receive reasonable wages, there&#8217;s an argument that the high levels of Chinese private saving are just a disguised tax. I wonder whether the average Chinese citizen will get any kind of reasonable return on the 40-50% of their income that is saved on their behalf.</p>
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		<title>By: Dinu Focs</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12984</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dinu Focs]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2009 22:10:33 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[You got to be kidding. The chinese workers get next to nothing. It is their communist masters who get the profits.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You got to be kidding. The chinese workers get next to nothing. It is their communist masters who get the profits.</p>
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		<title>By: Leigh Caldwell</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12977</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Leigh Caldwell]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2009 21:11:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3500#comment-12977</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hi Ted

GDP does take this into account. It measures &quot;value added&quot;, so if someone sells you $30m of raw materials and you sell manufactured products for $70m, your contribution to GDP is only $40m. The $30m has already been counted in the GDP contribution of your supplier (if they&#039;re in the US, it&#039;s in US figures, and if you bought them from China, it&#039;s in the Chinese figures).

But in your example, you also need to think about where the &quot;net margin&quot; comes from. The Chinese may make a margin of $5B on their $50B of shoes, but where did the $45B of costs go? Most of it was probably spent within China, so it&#039;s likely that there really is close to $50B worth of GDP generated. Similarly most of the $30B of airplanes is spent in the US. The profit margin of the final supplier doesn&#039;t really matter, though it does affect the distribution of GDP between wages and profits - in your example, Chinese workers get nearly all of the Chinese returns while US investors get a high proportion of the returns compared to US workers.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Ted</p>
<p>GDP does take this into account. It measures &#8220;value added&#8221;, so if someone sells you $30m of raw materials and you sell manufactured products for $70m, your contribution to GDP is only $40m. The $30m has already been counted in the GDP contribution of your supplier (if they&#8217;re in the US, it&#8217;s in US figures, and if you bought them from China, it&#8217;s in the Chinese figures).</p>
<p>But in your example, you also need to think about where the &#8220;net margin&#8221; comes from. The Chinese may make a margin of $5B on their $50B of shoes, but where did the $45B of costs go? Most of it was probably spent within China, so it&#8217;s likely that there really is close to $50B worth of GDP generated. Similarly most of the $30B of airplanes is spent in the US. The profit margin of the final supplier doesn&#8217;t really matter, though it does affect the distribution of GDP between wages and profits &#8211; in your example, Chinese workers get nearly all of the Chinese returns while US investors get a high proportion of the returns compared to US workers.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12923</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Anonymous]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2009 12:43:57 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Ken, 
I reckon that if they merged Chrysler and GM there would need to be more layoffs (due to model and or brand cancellation) as both make a similar range of cars - this owuld have follow on effects to auto suppliers 

It would also take a number of years to bring smaller more fuel efficient cars to the market so it wouldn&#039;t just be a matter of shifting workers from making big cars to small cars.

Fiat bring the technology to make these smaller efficient cars, and their management have also successfully turned Fiat around (whihc was dying a painful death).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ken,<br />
I reckon that if they merged Chrysler and GM there would need to be more layoffs (due to model and or brand cancellation) as both make a similar range of cars &#8211; this owuld have follow on effects to auto suppliers </p>
<p>It would also take a number of years to bring smaller more fuel efficient cars to the market so it wouldn&#8217;t just be a matter of shifting workers from making big cars to small cars.</p>
<p>Fiat bring the technology to make these smaller efficient cars, and their management have also successfully turned Fiat around (whihc was dying a painful death).</p>
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		<title>By: Top Posts &#171; WordPress.com</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12791</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Top Posts &#171; WordPress.com]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 May 2009 00:06:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3500#comment-12791</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...]  GDP Growth Rates for Beginners For a complete list of Beginners articles, see Financial Crisis for Beginners. My post about French sociology got a [...] [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...]  GDP Growth Rates for Beginners For a complete list of Beginners articles, see Financial Crisis for Beginners. My post about French sociology got a [...] [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Kenneth Davis</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12731</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kenneth Davis]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 02 May 2009 09:20:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3500#comment-12731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dave:

Thanks much for your comment.In my view, the disadvantages of a Chrysler takeover by a foreign a company  like Fiat is that we need to maintain s strong position in our own market. Yes, there will be downsizing, but there are good vehicles at both Chrysler and GM, and they can build smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles just as Ford is doing. It is not a &quot;victory&quot; for us to establish another foreign &quot;transplant&quot; here and do it by turning over
the factories, dealers, etc. while supplying all of the initial $8 billion of funding. If Fiat has such good cars for our market, why haven&#039;t they don&#039;t well here on their own.The Chrysler/Fiat deal is very bad
&quot;industrial policy&quot;.
Ken Davis]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dave:</p>
<p>Thanks much for your comment.In my view, the disadvantages of a Chrysler takeover by a foreign a company  like Fiat is that we need to maintain s strong position in our own market. Yes, there will be downsizing, but there are good vehicles at both Chrysler and GM, and they can build smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles just as Ford is doing. It is not a &#8220;victory&#8221; for us to establish another foreign &#8220;transplant&#8221; here and do it by turning over<br />
the factories, dealers, etc. while supplying all of the initial $8 billion of funding. If Fiat has such good cars for our market, why haven&#8217;t they don&#8217;t well here on their own.The Chrysler/Fiat deal is very bad<br />
&#8220;industrial policy&#8221;.<br />
Ken Davis</p>
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		<title>By: Dave Brown</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12729</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Brown]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 02 May 2009 08:27:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Except there&#039;s no synergy between GM and Chrysler, and hence no impetus to merge. Both based their business models (such as they are) on high profit trucks and SUVs, and both failed to make a profitable biz off of small, fuel efficient cars. So there would be no benefit to a merger. For all one might say about Fiat, they do have a viable small-car business, and they presumably want to re-enter the US market. So they were willing to come to the table, unlike probably any other company.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Except there&#8217;s no synergy between GM and Chrysler, and hence no impetus to merge. Both based their business models (such as they are) on high profit trucks and SUVs, and both failed to make a profitable biz off of small, fuel efficient cars. So there would be no benefit to a merger. For all one might say about Fiat, they do have a viable small-car business, and they presumably want to re-enter the US market. So they were willing to come to the table, unlike probably any other company.</p>
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		<title>By: Federico Thomsen</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12687</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Federico Thomsen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 23:05:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3500#comment-12687</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A small correction to a very useful post: column B, as I understand it, does not contain &quot;rates&quot; but output measured in constant dollars. If I am right, you would need to change the heading of that column in the spreadsheet and the part of your explanation where you say &quot;B: Quarterly GDP, or economic activity in that quarter. However, these numbers are expressed as seasonally adjusted annual RATES.&quot; (My capitals.)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A small correction to a very useful post: column B, as I understand it, does not contain &#8220;rates&#8221; but output measured in constant dollars. If I am right, you would need to change the heading of that column in the spreadsheet and the part of your explanation where you say &#8220;B: Quarterly GDP, or economic activity in that quarter. However, these numbers are expressed as seasonally adjusted annual RATES.&#8221; (My capitals.)</p>
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		<title>By: Al</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12642</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Al]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 17:18:49 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Wow again. It feels good to have my earlier comment acknowledged and even cited. Thanks, Mr. Kwak. For better or worse, my loyalty to this blog has just increased.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wow again. It feels good to have my earlier comment acknowledged and even cited. Thanks, Mr. Kwak. For better or worse, my loyalty to this blog has just increased.</p>
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		<title>By: Invest Tool</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12613</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Invest Tool]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 15:17:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3500#comment-12613</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[knowing a GDP number is important but analyzing the components is also important.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>knowing a GDP number is important but analyzing the components is also important.</p>
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		<title>By: tanstaafl</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12577</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[tanstaafl]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 13:09:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3500#comment-12577</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The BEA does not use CPI to deflate GDP; BEA does some silly things, but using CPI (which measures consumer prices) to deflate GDP (which includes far more than just consumer products) would be really really silly.  You can read the appendix to chapter 4 of the BEA publication &quot;Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts&quot; to see how BEA deals with prices.  It&#039;s online.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The BEA does not use CPI to deflate GDP; BEA does some silly things, but using CPI (which measures consumer prices) to deflate GDP (which includes far more than just consumer products) would be really really silly.  You can read the appendix to chapter 4 of the BEA publication &#8220;Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts&#8221; to see how BEA deals with prices.  It&#8217;s online.</p>
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		<title>By: StatsGuy</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12574</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[StatsGuy]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 12:58:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3500#comment-12574</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I don&#039;t even pretend to understand the business cycle predictors - it&#039;s all tea leaves to me.  But you are quite right about self-serving manipulation of statistics by public officials - and the media.

&quot;More people unemployed than ever in the history of the US&quot; makes a great headline, until you consider that there are 50% more people in the US than in 1982.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t even pretend to understand the business cycle predictors &#8211; it&#8217;s all tea leaves to me.  But you are quite right about self-serving manipulation of statistics by public officials &#8211; and the media.</p>
<p>&#8220;More people unemployed than ever in the history of the US&#8221; makes a great headline, until you consider that there are 50% more people in the US than in 1982.</p>
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		<title>By: thelocalgovernmentofficer</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12557</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[thelocalgovernmentofficer]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 09:06:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3500#comment-12557</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;m not an economist, so someone could maybe explain this to me. Are they adjusted by CPI-U or are they adjusted by the deflator? The deflator is way up somewhere close to 3%, as against headline deflation - ironically the GDP numbers would probably look really good if they were adjusted for deflation instead!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not an economist, so someone could maybe explain this to me. Are they adjusted by CPI-U or are they adjusted by the deflator? The deflator is way up somewhere close to 3%, as against headline deflation &#8211; ironically the GDP numbers would probably look really good if they were adjusted for deflation instead!</p>
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		<title>By: Kenneth Davis</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12556</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kenneth Davis]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 08:55:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3500#comment-12556</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[All this talk about GDP data is interesting, but where is some commentary on the Chrysler bankruptcy and government financing of a takeover of a major U.S. manufacturerthat contributes to GDP? Mr. Obama reminds us that we put men on the moon, so we can solve any problem if we work together. He&#039;s right, but we didn&#039;t need to bring in foreign leadership to do it. A merger with GM  as part of that downsizing would have been a much better investment of taxpayer dollars in the auto industry.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>All this talk about GDP data is interesting, but where is some commentary on the Chrysler bankruptcy and government financing of a takeover of a major U.S. manufacturerthat contributes to GDP? Mr. Obama reminds us that we put men on the moon, so we can solve any problem if we work together. He&#8217;s right, but we didn&#8217;t need to bring in foreign leadership to do it. A merger with GM  as part of that downsizing would have been a much better investment of taxpayer dollars in the auto industry.</p>
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		<title>By: Tom Dempsey</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/30/gdp-growth-rates-for-beginners/#comment-12551</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom Dempsey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 06:16:36 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[You state:

&quot;Note that this is all in 2000 dollars, so inflation has been taken out.&quot;

An odd way of stating that the GDP numbers are adjusted for inflation.  How are we to interpret the GDP numbers when we know they are adjusted by an intentionally falsified CPI-U?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You state:</p>
<p>&#8220;Note that this is all in 2000 dollars, so inflation has been taken out.&#8221;</p>
<p>An odd way of stating that the GDP numbers are adjusted for inflation.  How are we to interpret the GDP numbers when we know they are adjusted by an intentionally falsified CPI-U?</p>
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