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	<title>Comments on: Who Had This Good Idea First? (A Weekend Comment Competition)</title>
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	<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/</link>
	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
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		<title>By: Kyle</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11841</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2009 21:47:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11841</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For what it&#039;s worth, I remember talking about this idea in late 2007 as a kind of &quot;wouldn&#039;t it be crazy&quot; type discussion.  But yeah, that was just a private conversation on our desk and it never went beyond that.  Honestly, I&#039;m surprised no one else is following CS&#039;s lead here.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For what it&#8217;s worth, I remember talking about this idea in late 2007 as a kind of &#8220;wouldn&#8217;t it be crazy&#8221; type discussion.  But yeah, that was just a private conversation on our desk and it never went beyond that.  Honestly, I&#8217;m surprised no one else is following CS&#8217;s lead here.</p>
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		<title>By: q</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11296</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[q]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Apr 2009 23:47:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11296</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[totally agree]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>totally agree</p>
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		<title>By: Farmer J</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11165</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Farmer J]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Apr 2009 02:01:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11165</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I would add that a similar formula should apply to the generous &quot;deferred comp&quot; that packages that the highest echelon of management tends to accrue.  These packages are usually paid out over a long period of time after the management employee leaves/retires.  If they continued to get paid in shares of stock that could only be liquidated over a long (10 years+) period, I suspect they might be more careful about the risks they saddle the company with during their tenure.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I would add that a similar formula should apply to the generous &#8220;deferred comp&#8221; that packages that the highest echelon of management tends to accrue.  These packages are usually paid out over a long period of time after the management employee leaves/retires.  If they continued to get paid in shares of stock that could only be liquidated over a long (10 years+) period, I suspect they might be more careful about the risks they saddle the company with during their tenure.</p>
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		<title>By: jjh722</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11163</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jjh722]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Apr 2009 01:42:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11163</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That&#039;s an amazing idea. If Pelosi ran with that idea I&#039;d become a fan.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That&#8217;s an amazing idea. If Pelosi ran with that idea I&#8217;d become a fan.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul Delima</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11160</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Delima]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Apr 2009 01:34:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11160</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Credit Suisse Bonuses: Better than a stock award?

I’m not totally sure that this actually disadvantages the senior bankers in anyway.

Here’s why. Let’s say that the troubled asset pool is currently marked at fair value on the CS balance sheet. Firstly let’s think about this, how do you identify high risk assets? Is it just the interest rate/risk premium on the asset? Nope, let’s say its trading at 30 cents on the dollar, but you bought it (or its marked on your book) at 15 cents on the dollar, then the asset is actually in the money, and hence not troubled. Now I doubt they know what the fair value of the assets really is, but let’s just assume management actually has genuine faith in the statements they’ve been putting out to the market saying that their marks are reasonable.

Now let’s compare handing out bonuses in terms of stock awards versus a slice of the troubled asset pool. What is stock? Shareholder’s equity is the residual value after all other claims have been paid. Hence if the firm were handing out stock awards, each recipient is receiving a portion of the remainder of the hypothetical value of the firm if all assets were sold and the proceeds used to pay off all liabilities.

Now if you hand out a slice of the troubled asset pool, what is the analogy? You look at the asset side of the balance sheet, identify the high risk assets, section them off, and hand them off to a trust to administer them. In theory, this is actually better for the recipients than the stock award. Why? Well let’s say the assets are valued at a distressed but fair market value. In effect what is happening is that a portion of the assets is getting carved out of the benefit of the recipients, who then have a collateralized position. Ie the recipients are actually now have a senior claim on the firm with reference to the shareholders. In the same theoretical value liquidation exercise, they will receive their money before shareholders do, and in effect this reduces the value of the stock.

This is even before the identification problem. How does the bank know which assets are troubled? Let’s say the bank has taken writedowns on its leveraged loans and these are piled into the bonus facility. But then perhaps the bank did not forsee a problem in the commercial mortgage market and leaves these on the balance sheet. The shareholders are still exposed to the commercial morgages as residual claimants, while the leveraged loans, if they have been written down far enough, might eventually be worth more than their written down value, and the shareholder no longer have a claim on them.

Of course most of us know that the assumption here is wrong. Those assets are not marked at fair value and CS knows it. Why no one calls them on this shit, I have no idea. Plus they’re supposedly providing leverage to the facility. So what they’re saying that the recipients are going to take first losses. Which means more of less that CS is paying bonuses using stuff that they already know is worthless.

Why an accounting or regulatory body doesn’t call these guys out on this shit is beyond me.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Credit Suisse Bonuses: Better than a stock award?</p>
<p>I’m not totally sure that this actually disadvantages the senior bankers in anyway.</p>
<p>Here’s why. Let’s say that the troubled asset pool is currently marked at fair value on the CS balance sheet. Firstly let’s think about this, how do you identify high risk assets? Is it just the interest rate/risk premium on the asset? Nope, let’s say its trading at 30 cents on the dollar, but you bought it (or its marked on your book) at 15 cents on the dollar, then the asset is actually in the money, and hence not troubled. Now I doubt they know what the fair value of the assets really is, but let’s just assume management actually has genuine faith in the statements they’ve been putting out to the market saying that their marks are reasonable.</p>
<p>Now let’s compare handing out bonuses in terms of stock awards versus a slice of the troubled asset pool. What is stock? Shareholder’s equity is the residual value after all other claims have been paid. Hence if the firm were handing out stock awards, each recipient is receiving a portion of the remainder of the hypothetical value of the firm if all assets were sold and the proceeds used to pay off all liabilities.</p>
<p>Now if you hand out a slice of the troubled asset pool, what is the analogy? You look at the asset side of the balance sheet, identify the high risk assets, section them off, and hand them off to a trust to administer them. In theory, this is actually better for the recipients than the stock award. Why? Well let’s say the assets are valued at a distressed but fair market value. In effect what is happening is that a portion of the assets is getting carved out of the benefit of the recipients, who then have a collateralized position. Ie the recipients are actually now have a senior claim on the firm with reference to the shareholders. In the same theoretical value liquidation exercise, they will receive their money before shareholders do, and in effect this reduces the value of the stock.</p>
<p>This is even before the identification problem. How does the bank know which assets are troubled? Let’s say the bank has taken writedowns on its leveraged loans and these are piled into the bonus facility. But then perhaps the bank did not forsee a problem in the commercial mortgage market and leaves these on the balance sheet. The shareholders are still exposed to the commercial morgages as residual claimants, while the leveraged loans, if they have been written down far enough, might eventually be worth more than their written down value, and the shareholder no longer have a claim on them.</p>
<p>Of course most of us know that the assumption here is wrong. Those assets are not marked at fair value and CS knows it. Why no one calls them on this shit, I have no idea. Plus they’re supposedly providing leverage to the facility. So what they’re saying that the recipients are going to take first losses. Which means more of less that CS is paying bonuses using stuff that they already know is worthless.</p>
<p>Why an accounting or regulatory body doesn’t call these guys out on this shit is beyond me.</p>
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		<title>By: Gregman2</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11145</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gregman2]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Apr 2009 00:00:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11145</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Agreeing to this wager would require that a banker have an entrepreneurial mindset--that is, willing to risk one&#039;s own capital. The ultimate risk would be no ROI at all. Clearly, bankers are tasked with guarding [and risking] the capital of others in quest of return. Their bonuses represent [ideally, in theory] a return on performance (which is an investment of their time, not their own capital). Hence, this wager would not work, realistically, inasmuch as &#039;banker&#039; is a term antithetical to that of &#039;entrepreneur.&#039;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agreeing to this wager would require that a banker have an entrepreneurial mindset&#8211;that is, willing to risk one&#8217;s own capital. The ultimate risk would be no ROI at all. Clearly, bankers are tasked with guarding [and risking] the capital of others in quest of return. Their bonuses represent [ideally, in theory] a return on performance (which is an investment of their time, not their own capital). Hence, this wager would not work, realistically, inasmuch as &#8216;banker&#8217; is a term antithetical to that of &#8216;entrepreneur.&#8217;</p>
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		<title>By: Donna</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11108</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Donna]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Apr 2009 16:11:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11108</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I had a thought related to this topic.  As a child one of my friend&#039;s fathers would end disputes about who gets what slice of the pie by having one child slice the pie and the other child choose the slice.  If that model could be employed here in some appropriate manner, maybe the banks that generate bad asset portfolios would experience some meaningful checks and balances before they generate so many that it can shut down financial systems that have long been operational, and bank consumers would experience fewer deleterious consequences from such unchecked brinksmanship!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I had a thought related to this topic.  As a child one of my friend&#8217;s fathers would end disputes about who gets what slice of the pie by having one child slice the pie and the other child choose the slice.  If that model could be employed here in some appropriate manner, maybe the banks that generate bad asset portfolios would experience some meaningful checks and balances before they generate so many that it can shut down financial systems that have long been operational, and bank consumers would experience fewer deleterious consequences from such unchecked brinksmanship!</p>
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		<title>By: sippycupnation</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11086</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sippycupnation]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Apr 2009 13:17:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11086</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I thought that was indeed the principle behind the free market, AA!  

But not in America, apparently, where the biggest recipients of the country&#039;s socialistic policies are the capitalists on Wall Street (who are now showcasing their ability to turn quite a profit off of America&#039;s peculiar brand of socialism.)

Thanks your bank robber post too...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I thought that was indeed the principle behind the free market, AA!  </p>
<p>But not in America, apparently, where the biggest recipients of the country&#8217;s socialistic policies are the capitalists on Wall Street (who are now showcasing their ability to turn quite a profit off of America&#8217;s peculiar brand of socialism.)</p>
<p>Thanks your bank robber post too&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Uncle Billy vs. Mt. Pelerin</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11066</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Uncle Billy vs. Mt. Pelerin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Apr 2009 08:37:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11066</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That&#039;s going in the keeper file.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That&#8217;s going in the keeper file.</p>
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		<title>By: Simon</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11060</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Simon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Apr 2009 06:39:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11060</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It would not surprise me at all if it was Jack McHugh or Barry Ritholtz who thought this one up. The outrage is palpable at Barry&#039;s Blog too.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It would not surprise me at all if it was Jack McHugh or Barry Ritholtz who thought this one up. The outrage is palpable at Barry&#8217;s Blog too.</p>
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		<title>By: halbhh</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11059</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[halbhh]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Apr 2009 06:03:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11059</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The difference vs. the typical practice (options) would be essentially in the required holding time or delay (and of course in preventing re-timing and other tricks).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The difference vs. the typical practice (options) would be essentially in the required holding time or delay (and of course in preventing re-timing and other tricks).</p>
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		<title>By: halbhh</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11058</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[halbhh]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Apr 2009 05:58:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11058</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well, if you count stocks like C (Citigroup) as toxic assets...
;-)
...which they certainly were for those that held them, then the idea of tying executive pay more tightly to performance through such stock based &quot;assets&quot; is older of course.

This would only be one of many examples I&#039;d bet, but:

http://forum.xcpus.com/financial-chat/2923-side-note.html#post39571

The linked instance above from 2007 was an incomplete idea of course.  Requirements that the stock be held long enough to make it about longer term outcome (performance) would complete the intention.   Nowadays one might suggest a simpler formula, such as 60% of all monthly compensation is deferred for 36 months, and is given as a fixed number of shares determined now on the current price (i.e., if the stock is higher it&#039;s a bonus, lower it&#039;s a penalty, etc)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, if you count stocks like C (Citigroup) as toxic assets&#8230;<br />
;-)<br />
&#8230;which they certainly were for those that held them, then the idea of tying executive pay more tightly to performance through such stock based &#8220;assets&#8221; is older of course.</p>
<p>This would only be one of many examples I&#8217;d bet, but:</p>
<p><a href="http://forum.xcpus.com/financial-chat/2923-side-note.html#post39571" rel="nofollow">http://forum.xcpus.com/financial-chat/2923-side-note.html#post39571</a></p>
<p>The linked instance above from 2007 was an incomplete idea of course.  Requirements that the stock be held long enough to make it about longer term outcome (performance) would complete the intention.   Nowadays one might suggest a simpler formula, such as 60% of all monthly compensation is deferred for 36 months, and is given as a fixed number of shares determined now on the current price (i.e., if the stock is higher it&#8217;s a bonus, lower it&#8217;s a penalty, etc)</p>
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		<title>By: adios amigos</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11045</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[adios amigos]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Apr 2009 03:35:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11045</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The losers MUST be given the opportunity to actually lose. Until that happens, nothing changes.
AA]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The losers MUST be given the opportunity to actually lose. Until that happens, nothing changes.<br />
AA</p>
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		<title>By: Bayard</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11039</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bayard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Apr 2009 03:08:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11039</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I guess I originally missed this one, but it is really delightful and would be true justice.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I guess I originally missed this one, but it is really delightful and would be true justice.</p>
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		<title>By: Bayard</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/18/who-had-this-good-idea-first-a-weekend-comment-competition/#comment-11038</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bayard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Apr 2009 03:04:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3355#comment-11038</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Simon has made a very valid argument relating to the destructive capacity of the financial oligarchy.  He hasn&#039;t gone far enough in explaining the vast deterioration of our culture by (not just) the financial oligarchs, but also by the other oligarchs which in our social political system work to the vast detriment of our baseline.  I would argue that there are other major oligarchies which have a cumulative destructiveness which rivals the financial market sector.  Those are, in no particular order, the media, energy market participants (particularly oil and coal), and health care.  we could identify others, but particularly the last two have benefitted (much as the financial oligarchs) by their deep roots in lobbys and election financing.  The media, especially the &quot;mainstream&quot; media is sort of the oligarch&#039;s parasites, benefitting from advertising dollars which result in willing participation in many of the other oligarchy&#039;s paradigms (by being essentially non-critical).  When the media waves a red flag, it is usually half-baked and is offset by it&#039;s failure of follow-up.  A perfect example of this has been coverage of the April 15 protests (Tea Parties).  In only a couple of places was it even mentioned that Dick Armey was responsible for the core orgarnizing, and never was there a mention of the history of tax rates (specifically as they existed in the second half of the last century - we tend to forget that during the Eisenhower administration the top marginal rate reached 92%, and even after St. Reagan&#039;s tax reform the top rate was 50%).  The media has been happy just to &quot;jump on the pile&quot; and not conduct any real analysis, thus giving their sponsors what they want - an extra vote for even lower rates (current rates, even for the wealthy are historically low).

It is the multiplicity of oligarchs which are choking our country, not just the financial ones.  However the latest surfacing of oligarch power is coming in the convergence of the FASB MtM changes, the PPIP as a non mandatory program, and what I believe will be the &quot;soft&quot; stress tests.  Now that the foreclosure moratorium has ended, the new spike in foreclosures will weaken all other forms of debt, and thus further toxicify the &quot;toxic&quot; assets holdings of worldwide banks.  And, there is such an adverse feeling in political will for further bailouts that Geithner will ultimately be forced to take over the major financial institutions, something which should have been done a long time ago.  Of course, this is no silver bullet, because the toxic assets will be forced into a Resolution Trust type corporation, and will probably wipe out all of the world&#039;s bond holders.  At least we will finally have a real baseline for recovery, and that will probably enable an actual V-shape to develop, even sooner than later.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Simon has made a very valid argument relating to the destructive capacity of the financial oligarchy.  He hasn&#8217;t gone far enough in explaining the vast deterioration of our culture by (not just) the financial oligarchs, but also by the other oligarchs which in our social political system work to the vast detriment of our baseline.  I would argue that there are other major oligarchies which have a cumulative destructiveness which rivals the financial market sector.  Those are, in no particular order, the media, energy market participants (particularly oil and coal), and health care.  we could identify others, but particularly the last two have benefitted (much as the financial oligarchs) by their deep roots in lobbys and election financing.  The media, especially the &#8220;mainstream&#8221; media is sort of the oligarch&#8217;s parasites, benefitting from advertising dollars which result in willing participation in many of the other oligarchy&#8217;s paradigms (by being essentially non-critical).  When the media waves a red flag, it is usually half-baked and is offset by it&#8217;s failure of follow-up.  A perfect example of this has been coverage of the April 15 protests (Tea Parties).  In only a couple of places was it even mentioned that Dick Armey was responsible for the core orgarnizing, and never was there a mention of the history of tax rates (specifically as they existed in the second half of the last century &#8211; we tend to forget that during the Eisenhower administration the top marginal rate reached 92%, and even after St. Reagan&#8217;s tax reform the top rate was 50%).  The media has been happy just to &#8220;jump on the pile&#8221; and not conduct any real analysis, thus giving their sponsors what they want &#8211; an extra vote for even lower rates (current rates, even for the wealthy are historically low).</p>
<p>It is the multiplicity of oligarchs which are choking our country, not just the financial ones.  However the latest surfacing of oligarch power is coming in the convergence of the FASB MtM changes, the PPIP as a non mandatory program, and what I believe will be the &#8220;soft&#8221; stress tests.  Now that the foreclosure moratorium has ended, the new spike in foreclosures will weaken all other forms of debt, and thus further toxicify the &#8220;toxic&#8221; assets holdings of worldwide banks.  And, there is such an adverse feeling in political will for further bailouts that Geithner will ultimately be forced to take over the major financial institutions, something which should have been done a long time ago.  Of course, this is no silver bullet, because the toxic assets will be forced into a Resolution Trust type corporation, and will probably wipe out all of the world&#8217;s bond holders.  At least we will finally have a real baseline for recovery, and that will probably enable an actual V-shape to develop, even sooner than later.</p>
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