http://thebarricadeblog.com/2009/04/11/the-top-10-signs-you-are-living-in-a-banana-republic-and-my-favorite-100-billion-omelet/

We need some respite.

Who knows, this current bear rally can turn into a bull run and those who have been addicted to bad news and those waiting for more good news are going to be left far far behind.

It is never too late nor too early to be able to invest in this “crisis of the century”.

The last time there was a “crisis of the century” was during the 1929 to 1932 stock market meltdown. Dow Jones went down from $470 to $42 in 3 years or 91% haircut. It was only natural since the stock markets at that time were still young and immature.

Look at China and the other developing countries with young and immature stock markets; China went down 72% and the other countries went down more than 80%.

Look at Nasdaq, a young and immature index of the late 1900′s. It went down more than 80% during the tech meltdown of 2000 to 2002.

SnP is more diversified but less immature than Nasdaq; so when it got hit by the mortgage and financial meltdowns, it was able to go down 57% so far to 666 level – while the BKX or the banking sector went down from 121 to 17.75 from 2006 to March 2009 or a massive 85% haircut.

US and European stock markets are already more diversified and many sectors have matured through their decades of experience of both booms and busts. They are less likely to suffer the same fate as most markets of the early 1930′s.

Do you think we will be able to buy stocks again at these dirt cheap prices in our lifetime?

Dow Jones went up from $42 to $12,000 from 1932 to the year 2000. A massive 28,470% price appreciation over 68 years – or an average of 417% price appreciation per year.

Excessive? Yes, and Dow Jones is now paying for those 68 year of excess since year 2000.

What’s lost in this panic environment is that those who did not invest during the Great Depression and beyond did not profit from such a historic rally.

Those who tried to chase the rally during the 80′s, 90′s and early 2000′s are now suffering the payback period. Chasing the markets is a fool’s errand.

Now that the payback period is in earnest similar to the market meltdown of 1929 to 1932; it is more likely those who don’t invest now and in the future due to excessive fear of the markets are the ones not going to reap the profits of stock market rallies in the future.

History repeats itself or at least rhymes with the past.

We may never see this “Investing Opportunity of the Century” ever again in our lifetime.

The world was waiting and watching, but as soon as it became clear that that was his course, the Chinese announced that they were concerned about our currency—2+2=4…..the world was waiting and hoping the he really would be a change–maybe he is, but only one that gives the most powerful lobby in our country, more power, and possibly turn a blind eye to self dealing. I do remember him saying in one press conference when asked about previous policies (involving bailouts and possible corruption) he announced that we had to let go of the past and move forward. This comment was the beginning of my worry that he had fallen prey to the seduction the bank lobby’s agenda.

And with all of the talk about decreasing the power of the lobbiest in WDC, this was clearly out the window the day, the music died ( i mean the day that geithner and obama very clearly backed the paulson bernake plan –so, as far as keeping hope in Obama, he has shown himself to be a puppet, and it is terrifying.

Or, is it time, for a different lender of last resort. Although the IMF is largly controlled by the US, there are still other member nations that could come together to make strong suggestions. My fear is that the firepower has been unsuccessfully used, and we are close to the end of our rope.

( or was our rope cut a long time ago, in the effort to push on a string…it is late, just a silly aside )

On this one, I have to call you Dorothy in the land of OZ.

The AIG scandal was secondary to the fact that Lehman was denied a 6billion dollar bridge loan which gave Goldman, Morgan and other surviving IB’s Lehman’s market share, and a win on the fact that so many hedge funds and probably the proprietary trading desks of Goldman and Morgan (and all their affiliates) were betting on Lehman going down, so this was a big win to let them go down.

Hank and Ben played tag team on the issues on Lehman and AIG…very clever…bottom line, it is now public info that Goldman was saved by the decision to rush in on AIG…but no one seems to care…and these are the people who run our country…puppets to the federal reserve banks…and all affiliates….I don’t see much hope in this changing, but there have been times when good wins over evil–but who can know if now will be one of those times.

I just fear that the whole knows the corruption that appears to have occurred, and now will judge our country and our currency as corrupt.

The problems that have brought us to this point in our history, reflected in the sharp market decline of the fall, is only the first act, in a two or more act play–but it aint over til it’s over.

Your reference to 9/17/08 and Hank Paulson brought a flashback. I dumped every security I held for cash on 9/16/08. I decided in the early AM to spend the day researching AIG. As you may recall, it was widely known that AIG was in for windfall of $80 billion plus within a day or two.

There was not single piece of data that could be found that supported a number that large. In fact one research report from one of Wall Street’s best and brightest, concluded, after examining all transparent filings that the best they could come with $30 billion plus need.

I decided then that what we assumed was a transparent reporting and evaluation system was fraud and not only was it a fraud, the regulators were complicit.

Nothing has changed, and the last I read AIG’s windfall is $180billion . It is horrifying to imagine the consequences if the transparency of our current regulatory system has an error factor of 6:1 ($180b/30b).

We may make it out of this, but I am not looking for bottom yet, only the top of this bear rally.
— Ed Fennell

Perhaps some basics on comparing our economy to emerging markets would be useful now. How are we like an emerging economy, Simon? I am almost afraid to know.

And you’re certainly right about the us industrial sector.