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	<title>Comments on: What Next For Banks?</title>
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	<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/</link>
	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
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		<title>By: Celebrity Famous Women &#187; Seeing the bottom?</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-12510</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Celebrity Famous Women &#187; Seeing the bottom?]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Apr 2009 22:09:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-12510</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] to deal with the financial crisis are not ambitious enough - and it looks increasingly likely that this is the case - we will see the financial crisis deepen a lot more before world markets [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] to deal with the financial crisis are not ambitious enough &#8211; and it looks increasingly likely that this is the case &#8211; we will see the financial crisis deepen a lot more before world markets [...]</p>
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		<title>By: &#8221; TOO-BIG-TO-FAIL &#38; THREE NARRATIVES,&#8221; by Stats Guy, www. baselinescenario. com. Excellent review of post-Lehman failure six months ago. Worth the time. &#171; Want Less Blog</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-12051</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[&#8221; TOO-BIG-TO-FAIL &#38; THREE NARRATIVES,&#8221; by Stats Guy, www. baselinescenario. com. Excellent review of post-Lehman failure six months ago. Worth the time. &#171; Want Less Blog]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Apr 2009 06:56:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-12051</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] To Fail”.  The arguments behind this narrative are laid out in several places:Big and Small; What Next for Banks; Atlantic [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] To Fail”.  The arguments behind this narrative are laid out in several places:Big and Small; What Next for Banks; Atlantic [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Guest Post: Too-Big-To-Fail and Three Other Narratives &#171; The Baseline Scenario</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-11989</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Guest Post: Too-Big-To-Fail and Three Other Narratives &#171; The Baseline Scenario]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Apr 2009 18:57:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-11989</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Fail&#8221;.  The arguments behind this narrative are laid out in several places: Big and Small; What Next for Banks; Atlantic [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Fail&#8221;.  The arguments behind this narrative are laid out in several places: Big and Small; What Next for Banks; Atlantic [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Per Kurowski</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-10762</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Per Kurowski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Apr 2009 02:51:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-10762</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Simon Johnson says “It’s about centrist technocrat (close to current big finance) vs. centrist technocrat (suspicious of big finance…...)

Not necessarily. I am mostly against all those technocrats (close to current big technocrats) that played with the world and created more misery than many wars, and now want to dig us even deeper in the hole we’re in. 

Not only were they totally incapable of handling very simple risks, such as vanilla mortgages to homeowners in the USA, but now they have the galls of trying to manage the world&#039;s systemic risks as well.

Wake up! The regulators are themselves the most dangerous source of systemic risk. Did you not hear the Joker in “The Dark Knight” speaking about the financial regulators? 

The Joker said &quot;You know they&#039;re schemers. Schemers trying to control their worlds. I&#039;m not a schemer. I try to show the schemers how pathetic their attempts to control things really are. So, when I say that … was nothing personal, you know that I&#039;m telling the truth. It&#039;s the schemers that put you where you are. I just did what I do best. I took your little plan and I turned it on itself. Look what I did to this city with a few…&quot;… collateralized debt obligations.
 
When I think of a small group of arrogant technocrats in Basel thinking themselves capable of exorcizing risks out of banking, forever, by cooking up a formula of minimum capital requirements for banks based on some vaguely defined risks of default; and thereafter creating a risk information oligopoly by empowering the credit rating agencies, which was all doomed, sooner or later, to guide the world over a precipice of systemic risks, like what happened with the lousily awarded mortgages to the subprime sector, I cannot but feel like reaching out for the pitchforks to stop giving even more powers to these scheming technocrats.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Simon Johnson says “It’s about centrist technocrat (close to current big finance) vs. centrist technocrat (suspicious of big finance…&#8230;)</p>
<p>Not necessarily. I am mostly against all those technocrats (close to current big technocrats) that played with the world and created more misery than many wars, and now want to dig us even deeper in the hole we’re in. </p>
<p>Not only were they totally incapable of handling very simple risks, such as vanilla mortgages to homeowners in the USA, but now they have the galls of trying to manage the world&#8217;s systemic risks as well.</p>
<p>Wake up! The regulators are themselves the most dangerous source of systemic risk. Did you not hear the Joker in “The Dark Knight” speaking about the financial regulators? </p>
<p>The Joker said &#8220;You know they&#8217;re schemers. Schemers trying to control their worlds. I&#8217;m not a schemer. I try to show the schemers how pathetic their attempts to control things really are. So, when I say that … was nothing personal, you know that I&#8217;m telling the truth. It&#8217;s the schemers that put you where you are. I just did what I do best. I took your little plan and I turned it on itself. Look what I did to this city with a few…&#8221;… collateralized debt obligations.</p>
<p>When I think of a small group of arrogant technocrats in Basel thinking themselves capable of exorcizing risks out of banking, forever, by cooking up a formula of minimum capital requirements for banks based on some vaguely defined risks of default; and thereafter creating a risk information oligopoly by empowering the credit rating agencies, which was all doomed, sooner or later, to guide the world over a precipice of systemic risks, like what happened with the lousily awarded mortgages to the subprime sector, I cannot but feel like reaching out for the pitchforks to stop giving even more powers to these scheming technocrats.</p>
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		<title>By: no news / today &#171; Within This Shell</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-10416</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[no news / today &#171; Within This Shell]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Apr 2009 07:00:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-10416</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] How The Financial Crisis Happened ] [ Celente Calls For &#039;Revolution&#039; As The Only Solution ] [ What Next For Banks? - The Baseline Scenario ] [ Geithner Member of Secretive &#039;Group of 30&#039; ] [ Americans Stick To Their Guns - Sales Soar ] [ [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] How The Financial Crisis Happened ] [ Celente Calls For 'Revolution' As The Only Solution ] [ What Next For Banks? - The Baseline Scenario ] [ Geithner Member of Secretive 'Group of 30' ] [ Americans Stick To Their Guns - Sales Soar ] [ [...]</p>
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		<title>By: jason</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-10408</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jason]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Apr 2009 04:54:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-10408</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[THe average empire lasts 250 years under the fractional reserve banking system. The banking system that the we have been under is designed to fail. the people lose EVERYTHING and the bankers win EVERYTHING. That is the way of fractional reserve banking always has been always will be. We are all slaves to their system. This does not happen by mistake it happens by design. Why doesn&#039;t anyone just do a little research on the history of fractional reserve banking and find out for yourself? Also if you have a CENTRAL BANK then all the currency will eventually be devalued. That is how bankers i.e. the rich become richer and the poor become poorer. Of course this time around you pseudo rich people will fall. So the game is over and like the Bolshevik Revolution millions of people will starve to death in the next 5 years here in this country. If you think socialism will save you think about Stalin. If you think Obama will save you well nothing can.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>THe average empire lasts 250 years under the fractional reserve banking system. The banking system that the we have been under is designed to fail. the people lose EVERYTHING and the bankers win EVERYTHING. That is the way of fractional reserve banking always has been always will be. We are all slaves to their system. This does not happen by mistake it happens by design. Why doesn&#8217;t anyone just do a little research on the history of fractional reserve banking and find out for yourself? Also if you have a CENTRAL BANK then all the currency will eventually be devalued. That is how bankers i.e. the rich become richer and the poor become poorer. Of course this time around you pseudo rich people will fall. So the game is over and like the Bolshevik Revolution millions of people will starve to death in the next 5 years here in this country. If you think socialism will save you think about Stalin. If you think Obama will save you well nothing can.</p>
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		<title>By: Lying to us</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-10378</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lying to us]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2009 22:31:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-10378</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[1)  The banks, etc., are not too big to fail; let them fail, and we shall have smaller banks, or at least solvent ones.  

2)  The Fed. &amp; the Treasury are using public funds to protect private interests (bank stock &amp; bond holders).  This is the crux of the current crimewave.

3)  Obama = no change. 

4)  Thus, the current crimewave is being used to protect the criminal fraud cabals of pre-&#039;08.

5)  Like Spain&#039;s attempt to bring the Bush criminals to justice, if we do not clean up our own mess, others will have to do it for us.  We shall most likely be &quot;somewhat uncomfortable&quot; when this international economic &quot;adjustment&quot; really begins to happen.

6)  Better to let the gamblers really go broke.  Then those who committed crimes will be seen for who/what they are and can be prosecuted, not protected.  

7)  Any real assets can then be PAID FOR and re-deployed by folks who are not on trial or incarcerated.  Of course, the stock &amp; bond-holders of the bankrupt enterprises, after their &quot;haircut&quot;,will be totally bald, but the nation itself will be protected.  

8)  Enforce the Constitution of The U.S.

9)  Change the &quot;law&quot; that &quot;corporations are people&quot; and have &quot;1st Amendment rights to free speech&quot; in the form of purchasing the politicians.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1)  The banks, etc., are not too big to fail; let them fail, and we shall have smaller banks, or at least solvent ones.  </p>
<p>2)  The Fed. &amp; the Treasury are using public funds to protect private interests (bank stock &amp; bond holders).  This is the crux of the current crimewave.</p>
<p>3)  Obama = no change. </p>
<p>4)  Thus, the current crimewave is being used to protect the criminal fraud cabals of pre-&#8217;08.</p>
<p>5)  Like Spain&#8217;s attempt to bring the Bush criminals to justice, if we do not clean up our own mess, others will have to do it for us.  We shall most likely be &#8220;somewhat uncomfortable&#8221; when this international economic &#8220;adjustment&#8221; really begins to happen.</p>
<p>6)  Better to let the gamblers really go broke.  Then those who committed crimes will be seen for who/what they are and can be prosecuted, not protected.  </p>
<p>7)  Any real assets can then be PAID FOR and re-deployed by folks who are not on trial or incarcerated.  Of course, the stock &amp; bond-holders of the bankrupt enterprises, after their &#8220;haircut&#8221;,will be totally bald, but the nation itself will be protected.  </p>
<p>8)  Enforce the Constitution of The U.S.</p>
<p>9)  Change the &#8220;law&#8221; that &#8220;corporations are people&#8221; and have &#8220;1st Amendment rights to free speech&#8221; in the form of purchasing the politicians.</p>
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		<title>By: Sharazel</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-10376</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sharazel]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2009 21:58:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-10376</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[No, you&#039;ve produced something of value. It&#039;s ephemeral, but people buy it. Banksters don&#039;t sell anything of value; they lend money at interest, the money you are forced to use, which they and the government alone are given the right to issue, so you HAVE to get it from them.

I did not call for a gold standard. I called for free market currency. Banksters and financiers can charge you interest for money because only one currency is legal tender. They are helped, of course, by regulations and which make it very hard to produce and market anything on your own on a small, local scale, and thus accumulate wealth without borrowing as you expand.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No, you&#8217;ve produced something of value. It&#8217;s ephemeral, but people buy it. Banksters don&#8217;t sell anything of value; they lend money at interest, the money you are forced to use, which they and the government alone are given the right to issue, so you HAVE to get it from them.</p>
<p>I did not call for a gold standard. I called for free market currency. Banksters and financiers can charge you interest for money because only one currency is legal tender. They are helped, of course, by regulations and which make it very hard to produce and market anything on your own on a small, local scale, and thus accumulate wealth without borrowing as you expand.</p>
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		<title>By: c smith</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-10375</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[c smith]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2009 21:47:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-10375</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So I give a concert enjoyed by hundreds, or teach thousands of young people vital skills. I produce nothing of &quot;value&quot;? Just the sort of thinking which gave specie a bad name. The gold standard is nothing more than an artificial speed limit on productivity.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So I give a concert enjoyed by hundreds, or teach thousands of young people vital skills. I produce nothing of &#8220;value&#8221;? Just the sort of thinking which gave specie a bad name. The gold standard is nothing more than an artificial speed limit on productivity.</p>
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		<title>By: Sharazel</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-10373</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sharazel]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2009 21:20:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-10373</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The solution is simple: end legal tender laws. Allow a free market in currencies, and a crisis in one will be largely isolated from all others. The size of a bank does not matter, nor does fractional reserve lending, nor even fiat money. Let people trade freely, and these things will take care of themselves. Why would I take your monopoly money bill on the promise of bank x or government y when I can get physical silver from this guy over here? The finance industry as a whole is dependent on people being forced to take their dirty notes, and this parasitic horror would largely disappear without it. Producing value in physical goods is the only way to create wealth, so anytime you see wealth in the hands of those who produce nothing (banksters and financiers, for instance), you know that a distortion away from free, voluntary markets has occurred.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The solution is simple: end legal tender laws. Allow a free market in currencies, and a crisis in one will be largely isolated from all others. The size of a bank does not matter, nor does fractional reserve lending, nor even fiat money. Let people trade freely, and these things will take care of themselves. Why would I take your monopoly money bill on the promise of bank x or government y when I can get physical silver from this guy over here? The finance industry as a whole is dependent on people being forced to take their dirty notes, and this parasitic horror would largely disappear without it. Producing value in physical goods is the only way to create wealth, so anytime you see wealth in the hands of those who produce nothing (banksters and financiers, for instance), you know that a distortion away from free, voluntary markets has occurred.</p>
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		<title>By: Sharazel</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-10372</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sharazel]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2009 21:13:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-10372</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Actually, you give me $1 and I can lend $10 is the way it works. Far, far worse.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Actually, you give me $1 and I can lend $10 is the way it works. Far, far worse.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Ken Fisher</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-10363</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ken Fisher]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2009 20:23:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-10363</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;First-quarter net income rose 50 percent to about $3 billion, Wells Fargo said last week in announcing preliminary results that topped the most optimistic Wall Street estimates and sparked a 32 percent jump in the stock. The bank attributed the profit to a surge in mortgage originations and revenue from Wachovia Corp., acquired in December. Full results are scheduled for April 22.

“Details were scarce and we believe that much of the positive news in the preliminary results had to do with merger accounting, revised accounting standards and mortgage default moratoriums, rather than underlying trends,” wrote Cannon, who downgraded the shares to “underperform” from “market perform.” “We expect earnings and capital to be under pressure due to continued economic weakness.”

Wells Fargo raised its provision for loan losses by $4.6 billion in the quarter, below Cannon’s estimate of $5.4 billion. FBR Capital Markets analyst Paul Miller wrote after the announcement last week that he expected a $6.25 billion increase. &quot;
Link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aNsEBgrV8HA0&amp;refer=home]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;First-quarter net income rose 50 percent to about $3 billion, Wells Fargo said last week in announcing preliminary results that topped the most optimistic Wall Street estimates and sparked a 32 percent jump in the stock. The bank attributed the profit to a surge in mortgage originations and revenue from Wachovia Corp., acquired in December. Full results are scheduled for April 22.</p>
<p>“Details were scarce and we believe that much of the positive news in the preliminary results had to do with merger accounting, revised accounting standards and mortgage default moratoriums, rather than underlying trends,” wrote Cannon, who downgraded the shares to “underperform” from “market perform.” “We expect earnings and capital to be under pressure due to continued economic weakness.”</p>
<p>Wells Fargo raised its provision for loan losses by $4.6 billion in the quarter, below Cannon’s estimate of $5.4 billion. FBR Capital Markets analyst Paul Miller wrote after the announcement last week that he expected a $6.25 billion increase. &#8221;<br />
Link:<br />
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&#038;sid=aNsEBgrV8HA0&#038;refer=home" rel="nofollow">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&#038;sid=aNsEBgrV8HA0&#038;refer=home</a></p>
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		<title>By: 8</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-10354</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[8]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2009 19:25:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-10354</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You give me $1 and I can lend $0.90. The next bank takes the $0.90 and lends $0.81. Every major financial crisis has fractional reserve lending and/or government printing at the root.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You give me $1 and I can lend $0.90. The next bank takes the $0.90 and lends $0.81. Every major financial crisis has fractional reserve lending and/or government printing at the root.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Ben</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-10233</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ben]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Apr 2009 22:29:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-10233</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hi Ken,


Thanks you for the feedback.  Can you show me the numbers that led you to your conclusion?  Or at least point me to where to look?

At any rate, I am open minded about being wrong.  However, I do need to see the numbers.


Thanks,
Ben]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Ken,</p>
<p>Thanks you for the feedback.  Can you show me the numbers that led you to your conclusion?  Or at least point me to where to look?</p>
<p>At any rate, I am open minded about being wrong.  However, I do need to see the numbers.</p>
<p>Thanks,<br />
Ben</p>
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		<title>By: Ken Fisher</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/09/what-next-for-banks/#comment-10229</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ken Fisher]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Apr 2009 21:39:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3250#comment-10229</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You are spot on, Mark. Wells was scared to get into a bidding war with C for Wachovia&#039;s deposits, particularly when C had TARP money available. Mr. Kovacevich is just a Monday morning quarterback.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You are spot on, Mark. Wells was scared to get into a bidding war with C for Wachovia&#8217;s deposits, particularly when C had TARP money available. Mr. Kovacevich is just a Monday morning quarterback.</p>
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