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	<title>Comments on: Is It a V?</title>
	<atom:link href="http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/</link>
	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
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		<title>By: Where Is the Global Economy Heading? - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-10646</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Where Is the Global Economy Heading? - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Apr 2009 11:03:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-10646</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Rather than a V-shaped recovery, at the global level we may be looking at something more like an L-shape; we go down and we stay [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Rather than a V-shaped recovery, at the global level we may be looking at something more like an L-shape; we go down and we stay [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Pebble11216</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-10209</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Pebble11216]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Apr 2009 17:56:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-10209</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Given some of Professor Johnson&#039;s remarks about the nature of the financial sector, and its role in the economy I have a question about the question he raises above:  &quot;Can finance drive growth in the same way as it has over the past 20+ years?&quot;

Is the presumption behind this question correct, or another way of asking the question, under what definition of growth is the presumption correct?  

For instance, some economic indicators haven&#039;t grown, like real wages for lower income earners.  And in the several decades after WWII, wasn&#039;t there comparably better rates of growth, although the financial sector was regulated and controlled differently?  

The presumption doesn&#039;t seem obviously right to me, at all.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Given some of Professor Johnson&#8217;s remarks about the nature of the financial sector, and its role in the economy I have a question about the question he raises above:  &#8220;Can finance drive growth in the same way as it has over the past 20+ years?&#8221;</p>
<p>Is the presumption behind this question correct, or another way of asking the question, under what definition of growth is the presumption correct?  </p>
<p>For instance, some economic indicators haven&#8217;t grown, like real wages for lower income earners.  And in the several decades after WWII, wasn&#8217;t there comparably better rates of growth, although the financial sector was regulated and controlled differently?  </p>
<p>The presumption doesn&#8217;t seem obviously right to me, at all.</p>
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		<title>By: agrotera</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-9985</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[agrotera]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Apr 2009 04:51:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-9985</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Phil, please forgive my misunderstanding of what you said earlier.  Clearly, what you say is true.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Phil, please forgive my misunderstanding of what you said earlier.  Clearly, what you say is true.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Phil</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-9885</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Phil]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Apr 2009 16:19:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-9885</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[P.S. An example of how anger usually impairs the thought process is the post I was responding to. 

That post missed what I&#039;d actually said. I&#039;d not said anger was in any way &quot;wrong.&quot; What I said was unhelpful was exactly this: &quot;rants that we’ve often seen from people trying to demonize whomever they disagree with.&quot;

Being passionate and demonizing those who disagree with us are two entirely different things. I wrote specifically about the latter.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>P.S. An example of how anger usually impairs the thought process is the post I was responding to. </p>
<p>That post missed what I&#8217;d actually said. I&#8217;d not said anger was in any way &#8220;wrong.&#8221; What I said was unhelpful was exactly this: &#8220;rants that we’ve often seen from people trying to demonize whomever they disagree with.&#8221;</p>
<p>Being passionate and demonizing those who disagree with us are two entirely different things. I wrote specifically about the latter.</p>
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		<title>By: Phil</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-9883</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Phil]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Apr 2009 16:14:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-9883</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Based on what I&#039;ve seen, anger usually plays the same role here as it does with the thinking process in other parts of life. When we&#039;re angry, we feel righteous indignation and assume that we know far more than we actually do. I&#039;ve never seen evidence that being anger generally helps the thought process. Here and otherwise, I&#039;ve seen the reverse.

I understand that feeling strong anger can make one more likely to post. Exactly how does being angry help the thought processes of the angry people?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Based on what I&#8217;ve seen, anger usually plays the same role here as it does with the thinking process in other parts of life. When we&#8217;re angry, we feel righteous indignation and assume that we know far more than we actually do. I&#8217;ve never seen evidence that being anger generally helps the thought process. Here and otherwise, I&#8217;ve seen the reverse.</p>
<p>I understand that feeling strong anger can make one more likely to post. Exactly how does being angry help the thought processes of the angry people?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: agrotera</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-9802</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[agrotera]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Apr 2009 05:03:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-9802</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How is it possible to spend more with our national deficit growing to almost 4X what it was prior to the presidential election--and on top of that, we teeter-totter on the edge of the world wondering about the chances of the US Treasury defaulting?  With the aging of our country&#039;s infrastructure it would have been so wonderful if our government hadn&#039;t allowed 185Billion dollars to be given to AIG, and another 400 billion to backstop Citi, and instead a 600billion dollar infrastructure strengthening project had been put in place.
Unfortunately, the horse has left the barn and chances for this being corrected look grim.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How is it possible to spend more with our national deficit growing to almost 4X what it was prior to the presidential election&#8211;and on top of that, we teeter-totter on the edge of the world wondering about the chances of the US Treasury defaulting?  With the aging of our country&#8217;s infrastructure it would have been so wonderful if our government hadn&#8217;t allowed 185Billion dollars to be given to AIG, and another 400 billion to backstop Citi, and instead a 600billion dollar infrastructure strengthening project had been put in place.<br />
Unfortunately, the horse has left the barn and chances for this being corrected look grim.</p>
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		<title>By: agrotera</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-9773</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[agrotera]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Apr 2009 01:50:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-9773</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Excellent point beergut! 

(and by the way, nice round belly)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Excellent point beergut! </p>
<p>(and by the way, nice round belly)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: agrotera</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-9772</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[agrotera]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Apr 2009 01:36:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-9772</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A wise old Greek once said it is a sin to get angry, but more of a sin to not get angry about some things...

...as for the rants, it seems to me that a better way to categorize &#039;these&#039; posts would be passionate anger over extremely important issues...and as such, i wonder what percentage of the people participating on this blog believe that passionate anger is not valid or useful in the discussions going on in this forum?

Some people are just more passionate than others.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A wise old Greek once said it is a sin to get angry, but more of a sin to not get angry about some things&#8230;</p>
<p>&#8230;as for the rants, it seems to me that a better way to categorize &#8216;these&#8217; posts would be passionate anger over extremely important issues&#8230;and as such, i wonder what percentage of the people participating on this blog believe that passionate anger is not valid or useful in the discussions going on in this forum?</p>
<p>Some people are just more passionate than others.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Phil</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-9767</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Phil]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Apr 2009 00:09:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-9767</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For a post with more than 55 comments already, I think a much higher percentage of these comments are helpful than is usually the case. I&#039;m really enjoying this.

Comments that I consider &quot;not helpful&quot; are mainly those rants that we&#039;ve often seen from people trying to demonize whomever they disagree with. 

This is a cool change.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For a post with more than 55 comments already, I think a much higher percentage of these comments are helpful than is usually the case. I&#8217;m really enjoying this.</p>
<p>Comments that I consider &#8220;not helpful&#8221; are mainly those rants that we&#8217;ve often seen from people trying to demonize whomever they disagree with. </p>
<p>This is a cool change.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Phil</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-9766</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Phil]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Apr 2009 00:06:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-9766</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My question of those who believe we&#039;re in a rather typical recession (post-WWII) and that the economy will enjoy a sustainable rebound soon:

What are you assuming about how the $4 trillion or so will be worked out and what that impact will or won&#039;t be?

I&#039;m not arguing; I&#039;d just like to understand your thinking on this.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My question of those who believe we&#8217;re in a rather typical recession (post-WWII) and that the economy will enjoy a sustainable rebound soon:</p>
<p>What are you assuming about how the $4 trillion or so will be worked out and what that impact will or won&#8217;t be?</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not arguing; I&#8217;d just like to understand your thinking on this.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Phil</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-9763</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Phil]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2009 23:57:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-9763</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Anonymous,

Some excellent points. 

Question: Are you distinguishing between &quot;US banks&quot; and the small number of very large banks? I don&#039;t see a forced choice between limiting the size of banks and helping most banks in our system work.

Am I missing something?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anonymous,</p>
<p>Some excellent points. </p>
<p>Question: Are you distinguishing between &#8220;US banks&#8221; and the small number of very large banks? I don&#8217;t see a forced choice between limiting the size of banks and helping most banks in our system work.</p>
<p>Am I missing something?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: cannedjam</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-9665</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[cannedjam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2009 07:10:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-9665</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[we are screwed]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>we are screwed</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: MethodMan</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-9657</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[MethodMan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2009 06:29:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-9657</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The &quot;L&quot; with a horizontal component trailing downward into a depression is staring you right in the face.

Look around. People have produced and bought too much stuff. Lots and lots of stuff. 5 or 10 years of production and demand pulled forward by EZ-credit and cheap oil. And then… burp.

Most businesses and banks projected that accelerated increase in demand and productively way into the future. They financed expansions, built more houses. All this securitized and backed by bonds with leveraged CDO’s on top. Mal-investment and over-production squared.

So now what are we going to do? Force families to buy more TV’s and cars? Maybe extra financial products? Tulips?

It’s over. O-V-E-R. The consumer has crashed. There is nothing to inflate. We have to wait a long, long while for a massive oversupply in housing, durable goods and container-ships full of junk to decay.

While we’re all enjoying the fruits of that future production, businesses have realized if there is no demand then there is no need to produce. Now businesses overcorrect, if only to survive. Now we unwind 5-10 years of over-employment, and then some.

Sure this is an over-generalization. People still need to eat, be clothed, and be merry under a roof. We still need production, we still need services and businesses to provide them.

But for most things, there is only deflation and liquidation as far as the eye can see.

That is, deflation and liquidation of your assets, not the elites’.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The &#8220;L&#8221; with a horizontal component trailing downward into a depression is staring you right in the face.</p>
<p>Look around. People have produced and bought too much stuff. Lots and lots of stuff. 5 or 10 years of production and demand pulled forward by EZ-credit and cheap oil. And then… burp.</p>
<p>Most businesses and banks projected that accelerated increase in demand and productively way into the future. They financed expansions, built more houses. All this securitized and backed by bonds with leveraged CDO’s on top. Mal-investment and over-production squared.</p>
<p>So now what are we going to do? Force families to buy more TV’s and cars? Maybe extra financial products? Tulips?</p>
<p>It’s over. O-V-E-R. The consumer has crashed. There is nothing to inflate. We have to wait a long, long while for a massive oversupply in housing, durable goods and container-ships full of junk to decay.</p>
<p>While we’re all enjoying the fruits of that future production, businesses have realized if there is no demand then there is no need to produce. Now businesses overcorrect, if only to survive. Now we unwind 5-10 years of over-employment, and then some.</p>
<p>Sure this is an over-generalization. People still need to eat, be clothed, and be merry under a roof. We still need production, we still need services and businesses to provide them.</p>
<p>But for most things, there is only deflation and liquidation as far as the eye can see.</p>
<p>That is, deflation and liquidation of your assets, not the elites’.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: agrotera</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-9649</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[agrotera]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2009 05:54:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-9649</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you look at the history of the Dow, using non logarithm charts, using a regression line the Dow should be at about 2000-3000.  

Derivatives, out sourcing creating developing market growth, and other leverage must have something to do with the disconnect.  And, maybe this disconnect is here to stay. But maybe it is unsustainable. 

I am afraid all of the thievery that has taken place in the &quot;official&quot; games (not the Olympics, the game of picking and chosing which bank will or wont survive to receive the free money from AIG and TARP &quot;backstops&quot; ) that our country will suffer from this almost 200Billion dollars to AIG and 400plus billion that has been given to Citi.  This is a heavy burden--the country was bitching about the 700billion dollar stimulus but an equivalent amount has been passed out to save failed entities-- but even a bankrupt organization might be saved with 600billion dollars of free money plus the ability to borrow at a half of a percent and lend at 5-30% when you consider commercial lending and credit card lending.

Are AIG and Citi national treasures worth 600billion dollars?  It is such a sad story.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you look at the history of the Dow, using non logarithm charts, using a regression line the Dow should be at about 2000-3000.  </p>
<p>Derivatives, out sourcing creating developing market growth, and other leverage must have something to do with the disconnect.  And, maybe this disconnect is here to stay. But maybe it is unsustainable. </p>
<p>I am afraid all of the thievery that has taken place in the &#8220;official&#8221; games (not the Olympics, the game of picking and chosing which bank will or wont survive to receive the free money from AIG and TARP &#8220;backstops&#8221; ) that our country will suffer from this almost 200Billion dollars to AIG and 400plus billion that has been given to Citi.  This is a heavy burden&#8211;the country was bitching about the 700billion dollar stimulus but an equivalent amount has been passed out to save failed entities&#8211; but even a bankrupt organization might be saved with 600billion dollars of free money plus the ability to borrow at a half of a percent and lend at 5-30% when you consider commercial lending and credit card lending.</p>
<p>Are AIG and Citi national treasures worth 600billion dollars?  It is such a sad story.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Good News Economist</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/08/is-it-a-v/#comment-9646</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Good News Economist]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2009 05:30:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=3230#comment-9646</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[No doubt a V.

But this time is different right? Yes and No. Of course 2009 is a different time in history. But a fascinating paper by the economics department at Harvard, reveals that a significant number of factors are the same now as compared to other financial crises that have occurred for 800 years!
http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2009/03/remember-1979-is-this-time-different.html

Given the assumption that this recent bear is no different, have a look at the charts for the past 12 bear markets:
http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2009/02/bull-market-move-swift-and-steep.html

This current move will continue to be swift and steep leaving many in the dust.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No doubt a V.</p>
<p>But this time is different right? Yes and No. Of course 2009 is a different time in history. But a fascinating paper by the economics department at Harvard, reveals that a significant number of factors are the same now as compared to other financial crises that have occurred for 800 years!<br />
<a href="http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2009/03/remember-1979-is-this-time-different.html" rel="nofollow">http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2009/03/remember-1979-is-this-time-different.html</a></p>
<p>Given the assumption that this recent bear is no different, have a look at the charts for the past 12 bear markets:<br />
<a href="http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2009/02/bull-market-move-swift-and-steep.html" rel="nofollow">http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2009/02/bull-market-move-swift-and-steep.html</a></p>
<p>This current move will continue to be swift and steep leaving many in the dust.</p>
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