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	<title>Comments on: We Cannot Afford To Wait To Recapitalise US Banks (Letter To The FT)</title>
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	<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/</link>
	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
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		<title>By: gordon</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5797</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[gordon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2009 12:19:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5797</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;The recapitalisation needs to be so large that it is near impossible to imagine an economic outcome where they fail in the next five years. That requires several trillion dollars...&quot;

Such sums imply Govt. ownership until the taxpayer is made whole. I don&#039;t think gifting trillions of dollars to banks like Citi or Bank of America without changing management and making a claim on turnover is either politically or indeed morally possible, and steps like those imply ownership, ie. nationalisation. 

I know Prof. Johnson has turned every possible way to avoid nationalisation, but the fact is nobody has invented a way for the Govt. to recapitalise banks without owning them. Nor should anybody really try.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The recapitalisation needs to be so large that it is near impossible to imagine an economic outcome where they fail in the next five years. That requires several trillion dollars&#8230;&#8221;</p>
<p>Such sums imply Govt. ownership until the taxpayer is made whole. I don&#8217;t think gifting trillions of dollars to banks like Citi or Bank of America without changing management and making a claim on turnover is either politically or indeed morally possible, and steps like those imply ownership, ie. nationalisation. </p>
<p>I know Prof. Johnson has turned every possible way to avoid nationalisation, but the fact is nobody has invented a way for the Govt. to recapitalise banks without owning them. Nor should anybody really try.</p>
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		<title>By: J Edward</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5781</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[J Edward]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2009 04:17:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5781</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since the Govt is not going to let Citi fail. ( Reason being is that such huge bets are made thru CDSs at AIG that the Govt would have to pay that too. )
Why doesn&#039;t Uncle Sam act like a wily hedge fund and start buying up the most Senior Debt with Social Security fund money.

Its a WinWin since SS doesn&#039;t have to mark to market, has a long time horizon and becomes closer to solvency with annual returns that are significant from their Citi bonds.  

Other may see this is risky but as Gross says in for a nickel in for dime.  We&#039;re already all in with Citi since they cannot be allowed to fail due CDS concerns.  We the taxpayer might as well make money on its final executions and resolution.  If we keep the bondholder whole we might as well be the bond holder except we buy at a huge discount to maturity value.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Since the Govt is not going to let Citi fail. ( Reason being is that such huge bets are made thru CDSs at AIG that the Govt would have to pay that too. )<br />
Why doesn&#8217;t Uncle Sam act like a wily hedge fund and start buying up the most Senior Debt with Social Security fund money.</p>
<p>Its a WinWin since SS doesn&#8217;t have to mark to market, has a long time horizon and becomes closer to solvency with annual returns that are significant from their Citi bonds.  </p>
<p>Other may see this is risky but as Gross says in for a nickel in for dime.  We&#8217;re already all in with Citi since they cannot be allowed to fail due CDS concerns.  We the taxpayer might as well make money on its final executions and resolution.  If we keep the bondholder whole we might as well be the bond holder except we buy at a huge discount to maturity value.</p>
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		<title>By: John</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5775</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2009 01:31:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5775</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Everytime I read the word &quot;nationalize&quot; I wonder what that means in detail. Does it mean the equity and debtholders are wiped out or not. Ot is such crucial detail considered too trivial to identify?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Everytime I read the word &#8220;nationalize&#8221; I wonder what that means in detail. Does it mean the equity and debtholders are wiped out or not. Ot is such crucial detail considered too trivial to identify?</p>
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		<title>By: Greg Atkinson</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5683</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Atkinson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Mar 2009 02:25:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5683</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The longer this mess drags on the more difficult it is to solve. Why do we have to have an either/or solution? Why can&#039;t the zombie banks be allowed to fail while banks that still have some life be supported?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The longer this mess drags on the more difficult it is to solve. Why do we have to have an either/or solution? Why can&#8217;t the zombie banks be allowed to fail while banks that still have some life be supported?</p>
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		<title>By: Bill</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5680</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bill]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Mar 2009 02:01:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5680</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Citibank&#039;s debt has become junk (eupmemistically and accurately called &#039;high-yield&#039;).  It is trading at such low prices that the payout is very high relative to the price that you would pay for it if you were to buy it today or tomorrow.  But, it is trading at low prices because the sellers don&#039;t expect the payout to continue for very long (i.e. it&#039;s risky).  The high yield is your reward for assumming that risk.  Good luck...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Citibank&#8217;s debt has become junk (eupmemistically and accurately called &#8216;high-yield&#8217;).  It is trading at such low prices that the payout is very high relative to the price that you would pay for it if you were to buy it today or tomorrow.  But, it is trading at low prices because the sellers don&#8217;t expect the payout to continue for very long (i.e. it&#8217;s risky).  The high yield is your reward for assumming that risk.  Good luck&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: JimP</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5678</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JimP]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Mar 2009 01:28:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5678</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[To quote the Economist on the Krugman article:

&quot;There is a great deal of point-missing in these paragraphs. Mr Krugman suggests that the way to avoid spending trillions helping the banks, and rewarding those who wrecked the banks, is to nationalise them. But nationalisation doesn&#039;t make the debtholders go away. Would the government make them whole, or simply give them a minor haircut? If so, then you still have a situation where the government is spending trillions of dollars and rewarding people who don&#039;t deserve a reward. Or would the government simply say, sorry debtholders, you&#039;re stuck with the losses? That would save taxpayers a lot of money and strike a major blow against moral hazard—but only if it didn&#039;t precipitate a Lehman Brothers-like meltdown.

If Mr Krugman hopes to convince me—and, I suspect, if he hopes to convince those with their fingers on policy levers—he needs to address this question. So far, he&#039;s taken the easy way out, asserting that Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner don&#039;t get it, and are just too chicken to nationalise. &quot;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To quote the Economist on the Krugman article:</p>
<p>&#8220;There is a great deal of point-missing in these paragraphs. Mr Krugman suggests that the way to avoid spending trillions helping the banks, and rewarding those who wrecked the banks, is to nationalise them. But nationalisation doesn&#8217;t make the debtholders go away. Would the government make them whole, or simply give them a minor haircut? If so, then you still have a situation where the government is spending trillions of dollars and rewarding people who don&#8217;t deserve a reward. Or would the government simply say, sorry debtholders, you&#8217;re stuck with the losses? That would save taxpayers a lot of money and strike a major blow against moral hazard—but only if it didn&#8217;t precipitate a Lehman Brothers-like meltdown.</p>
<p>If Mr Krugman hopes to convince me—and, I suspect, if he hopes to convince those with their fingers on policy levers—he needs to address this question. So far, he&#8217;s taken the easy way out, asserting that Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner don&#8217;t get it, and are just too chicken to nationalise. &#8220;</p>
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		<title>By: JimP</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5677</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JimP]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Mar 2009 01:22:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5677</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[To just nationalize and kill the debt would be just entirely insane. Read the post just above from the corporate bond trader. A recap that destroyed the bonds would destroy every one of us. The idea is totally insane. It would be Lehman to the cube. It is pure populist demagoguery. 

Read this post from the Economist. As they say, there is a lot of point missing by Krugman on this risk - as compared to Martin Wolf.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2009/03/bank_shots.cfm

I continue to feel that inflation is the better way to go.  

Here is another post on that:

http://www.knowingandmaking.com/search?q=scott]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To just nationalize and kill the debt would be just entirely insane. Read the post just above from the corporate bond trader. A recap that destroyed the bonds would destroy every one of us. The idea is totally insane. It would be Lehman to the cube. It is pure populist demagoguery. </p>
<p>Read this post from the Economist. As they say, there is a lot of point missing by Krugman on this risk &#8211; as compared to Martin Wolf.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2009/03/bank_shots.cfm" rel="nofollow">http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2009/03/bank_shots.cfm</a></p>
<p>I continue to feel that inflation is the better way to go.  </p>
<p>Here is another post on that:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.knowingandmaking.com/search?q=scott" rel="nofollow">http://www.knowingandmaking.com/search?q=scott</a></p>
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		<title>By: bond trader</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5676</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[bond trader]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Mar 2009 01:03:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[i am a corporate bond trader. you say the trust preferred are trading at 27. the subordinated of bac and c are atarting to trade at 35 and the senior unsecured at 58 but they are not reported by trace as they are kicked out as &quot;out of range&quot;. also, foreign sellers do not report to trace and are totally panicking. bondholders will have to bear part of the pain in thje recapitalization of the banks.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i am a corporate bond trader. you say the trust preferred are trading at 27. the subordinated of bac and c are atarting to trade at 35 and the senior unsecured at 58 but they are not reported by trace as they are kicked out as &#8220;out of range&#8221;. also, foreign sellers do not report to trace and are totally panicking. bondholders will have to bear part of the pain in thje recapitalization of the banks.</p>
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		<title>By: Top Posts &#171; WordPress.com</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5674</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Top Posts &#171; WordPress.com]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Mar 2009 00:32:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5674</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...]  We Cannot Afford To Wait To Recapitalise US Banks (Letter To The FT) (The following is now available in the on-line edition of the Financial Times; link to original Martin Wolf article [...] [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...]  We Cannot Afford To Wait To Recapitalise US Banks (Letter To The FT) (The following is now available in the on-line edition of the Financial Times; link to original Martin Wolf article [...] [...]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: A Quick Note on Bank Liabilities &#171; The Baseline Scenario</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5639</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[A Quick Note on Bank Liabilities &#171; The Baseline Scenario]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 19:05:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5639</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] a comment &#187;  I want to pick up on a theme Simon discussed in his last two posts: the recent panic over bank debt, particularly subordinated bank debt. I&#8217;ll probably repeat [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] a comment &raquo;  I want to pick up on a theme Simon discussed in his last two posts: the recent panic over bank debt, particularly subordinated bank debt. I&#8217;ll probably repeat [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Quixote</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5617</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Quixote]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 16:01:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5617</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Simon, so many economists are basically saying the same thing (see, e.g., Krugman in today&#039;s NYT).  I think a single statement, signed by many economists of all political stripes, might have more impact with the administration than numerous piecemeal editorials.  As you frequently point out, the administration is going out of its way not to nationalize, but a unified call from respected economists might provide some cover.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Simon, so many economists are basically saying the same thing (see, e.g., Krugman in today&#8217;s NYT).  I think a single statement, signed by many economists of all political stripes, might have more impact with the administration than numerous piecemeal editorials.  As you frequently point out, the administration is going out of its way not to nationalize, but a unified call from respected economists might provide some cover.</p>
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		<title>By: Geoffrey Morton-Haworth</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5578</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Geoffrey Morton-Haworth]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 11:25:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5578</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I think the nationalization game is over. The government response – “shan’t, won’t, can’t make me” – shows that there are some incredibly dirty photographs floating around out there, home truths that the nation cannot afford to surface, unthinkable enough to still keep Madoff out of jail. No wonder President Obama is going grey.

If the fall of the Roman Empire teaches anything, the next battleground will not be oil or money but food supply. See “Quest for food security breeds neo-colonialists” in The Times (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5846987.ece). No accident Michelle Obama is frequenting soup kitchens.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think the nationalization game is over. The government response – “shan’t, won’t, can’t make me” – shows that there are some incredibly dirty photographs floating around out there, home truths that the nation cannot afford to surface, unthinkable enough to still keep Madoff out of jail. No wonder President Obama is going grey.</p>
<p>If the fall of the Roman Empire teaches anything, the next battleground will not be oil or money but food supply. See “Quest for food security breeds neo-colonialists” in The Times (<a href="http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5846987.ece" rel="nofollow">http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5846987.ece</a>). No accident Michelle Obama is frequenting soup kitchens.</p>
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		<title>By: btraven</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5576</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[btraven]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 07:29:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5576</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;French President Nicolas Sarkozy and three top government ministers have been sent anonymous death threats in letters stuffed with bullets, a judicial official said Tuesday.&quot; -- Huffington Post

I think this speaks for itself.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;French President Nicolas Sarkozy and three top government ministers have been sent anonymous death threats in letters stuffed with bullets, a judicial official said Tuesday.&#8221; &#8212; Huffington Post</p>
<p>I think this speaks for itself.</p>
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		<title>By: btraven</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5575</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[btraven]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 07:25:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5575</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Promises of transparency - lies, lies, lies.  There will be NO confidence in the markets until all the information sought is forked over by the Fed and Treasury.  There will be NO confidence in the markets until the CDS game is STOPPED COLD.  There will be no confidence in the market, until crooks start to be arrested and prosecuted (we can start with Paulson, but even the BoA banksters, who hid from shareholders the bonus payouts to the Lynch-pins, would be a start.)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Promises of transparency &#8211; lies, lies, lies.  There will be NO confidence in the markets until all the information sought is forked over by the Fed and Treasury.  There will be NO confidence in the markets until the CDS game is STOPPED COLD.  There will be no confidence in the market, until crooks start to be arrested and prosecuted (we can start with Paulson, but even the BoA banksters, who hid from shareholders the bonus payouts to the Lynch-pins, would be a start.)</p>
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		<title>By: btraven</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalise-us-banks-letter-to-the-ft/#comment-5574</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[btraven]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 07:19:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2787#comment-5574</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Death to the financial market, the financial gamblin&#039; games!  Let&#039;s get back to markets grounded in &quot;real wealth&quot; instead of &quot;phantom wealth&quot;!!!!!!!!!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Death to the financial market, the financial gamblin&#8217; games!  Let&#8217;s get back to markets grounded in &#8220;real wealth&#8221; instead of &#8220;phantom wealth&#8221;!!!!!!!!!</p>
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