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	<title>Comments on: The Biggest Story of the Week</title>
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	<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/</link>
	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
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		<title>By: Gates VP</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-6068</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gates VP]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Mar 2009 23:18:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-6068</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Just an FYI for those not already in the know. The average American is &lt;b&gt;not&lt;/b&gt; going to retire at 65.

It&#039;s not just the current economic crisis. It&#039;s 10 years of basically 0 returns on the market from 2000 to 2007 (pre-crash). It&#039;s the decade of inflation &quot;out-performing&quot; prevalent interest rates. It&#039;s &lt;b&gt;25 years&lt;/b&gt; of trade deficits and the systemic de-industrialization of the country.

When the pension funds come up short, the US government will be the back-stop. But without real internal economic growth, the pensions will be covered with &quot;printed money&quot; making the existing pensions all the less valuable.

At the end of the day people at 65 &lt;b&gt;will&lt;/b&gt; receive a pension. But the average pensioner is quickly going to realize that they are not going to make it to 85 on that pension.

And honestly, my father and I discussed this in 1999 when talk at the time focused on a lack of jobs for new grad. 

The math is really obvious, if everyone plans to retire at 65 and live until 85 or 90, you end up with a populace where half the people are working and half are &quot;sponging&quot; (those under 20 and over 65).  Given that we have the baby boomer &quot;bump&quot; we&#039;re going to have &lt;i&gt;even more&lt;/i&gt; than half of the populace slated for sponging.  In an economy that&#039;s already in massive debt! (there a whole blog post here)

So the point remains, the average American is &lt;b&gt;not&lt;/b&gt; going to retire at 65. Now is the time to accept that fate and start figuring out how work and survive until 70 or 75.  I&#039;m already planning to, so should they.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just an FYI for those not already in the know. The average American is <b>not</b> going to retire at 65.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not just the current economic crisis. It&#8217;s 10 years of basically 0 returns on the market from 2000 to 2007 (pre-crash). It&#8217;s the decade of inflation &#8220;out-performing&#8221; prevalent interest rates. It&#8217;s <b>25 years</b> of trade deficits and the systemic de-industrialization of the country.</p>
<p>When the pension funds come up short, the US government will be the back-stop. But without real internal economic growth, the pensions will be covered with &#8220;printed money&#8221; making the existing pensions all the less valuable.</p>
<p>At the end of the day people at 65 <b>will</b> receive a pension. But the average pensioner is quickly going to realize that they are not going to make it to 85 on that pension.</p>
<p>And honestly, my father and I discussed this in 1999 when talk at the time focused on a lack of jobs for new grad. </p>
<p>The math is really obvious, if everyone plans to retire at 65 and live until 85 or 90, you end up with a populace where half the people are working and half are &#8220;sponging&#8221; (those under 20 and over 65).  Given that we have the baby boomer &#8220;bump&#8221; we&#8217;re going to have <i>even more</i> than half of the populace slated for sponging.  In an economy that&#8217;s already in massive debt! (there a whole blog post here)</p>
<p>So the point remains, the average American is <b>not</b> going to retire at 65. Now is the time to accept that fate and start figuring out how work and survive until 70 or 75.  I&#8217;m already planning to, so should they.</p>
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		<title>By: Andrew Mastrandonas</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5878</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Mastrandonas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Mar 2009 04:01:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5878</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I’m writing to comment on the financial crisis and to let people know there ARE other options out there besides simply suffering and watching our savings erode.  I moved to Costa Rica from the U.S. in 2005 and I can’t stress enough the difference in attitude between those in the U.S., and the American friends I’ve made in Costa Rica. Everyone is saying, “Thank God I am living here. I couldn’t imagine retiring in the States.” The fact is, thousands of Americans are retiring to Costa Rica to maintain their quality of life.  The cost of living, climate and safety record are the main factors for most people.   I pay $25 a month for electric, $5 for water, $25 for my cell phone, and my property tax is less than $100 a year! I also don’t have to pay for heating or air conditioning because where I live, in the Central Valley, it’s typically 70-85 degrees every day of the year.  It doesn’t matter what your income bracket is, everyone can appreciate those numbers.  

Admittedly, it doesn’t make sense to come here on your own to explore retirement options--having a network of people you can trust will make the transition a lot easier.  So, in 2006, I started a company called “Boomers in Costa Rica.” Our company introduces clients to experienced professionals and to the type of real estate options that are only from reputable sellers.  We generally help explore retirement and investment options in Costa Rica. If you are interested in learning more, the website is www.boomersincostarica.com.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’m writing to comment on the financial crisis and to let people know there ARE other options out there besides simply suffering and watching our savings erode.  I moved to Costa Rica from the U.S. in 2005 and I can’t stress enough the difference in attitude between those in the U.S., and the American friends I’ve made in Costa Rica. Everyone is saying, “Thank God I am living here. I couldn’t imagine retiring in the States.” The fact is, thousands of Americans are retiring to Costa Rica to maintain their quality of life.  The cost of living, climate and safety record are the main factors for most people.   I pay $25 a month for electric, $5 for water, $25 for my cell phone, and my property tax is less than $100 a year! I also don’t have to pay for heating or air conditioning because where I live, in the Central Valley, it’s typically 70-85 degrees every day of the year.  It doesn’t matter what your income bracket is, everyone can appreciate those numbers.  </p>
<p>Admittedly, it doesn’t make sense to come here on your own to explore retirement options&#8211;having a network of people you can trust will make the transition a lot easier.  So, in 2006, I started a company called “Boomers in Costa Rica.” Our company introduces clients to experienced professionals and to the type of real estate options that are only from reputable sellers.  We generally help explore retirement and investment options in Costa Rica. If you are interested in learning more, the website is <a href="http://www.boomersincostarica.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.boomersincostarica.com</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark D</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5806</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark D]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2009 15:38:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5806</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The situation is a bit different than described here. About half of retirees today survive only with Social Security income - and most people&#039;s remaining asset is the home they own that reduces their expenses. Medicare also helped keep costs down - but that this is the system that is unsustainable as is. The project debt here - if things continue - is much larger than what we have accrued to date. Thus, Obama needs to have forces pulling together to resolve the health care system and avoid incurring much higher deficit levels.

For the other half of retirees, many of these people had pensions. The shift in recent generations has been to place the responsibility on us [IRA &amp; 401k] rather than the pension system. It is the most recent generations that got the benefit of the US being such a large part of the global economy that they received benefits unsustainable to us. 

We boomers were just deluded with the two decade rise in stock &amp; home values. And now we have to deal with what we had hoped to avoid facing. More saving to have a decent retirement. And fixing the system to ensure we leave things decent for our kids - as we had already done to help end the war &amp; get the environment back on track.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The situation is a bit different than described here. About half of retirees today survive only with Social Security income &#8211; and most people&#8217;s remaining asset is the home they own that reduces their expenses. Medicare also helped keep costs down &#8211; but that this is the system that is unsustainable as is. The project debt here &#8211; if things continue &#8211; is much larger than what we have accrued to date. Thus, Obama needs to have forces pulling together to resolve the health care system and avoid incurring much higher deficit levels.</p>
<p>For the other half of retirees, many of these people had pensions. The shift in recent generations has been to place the responsibility on us [IRA &amp; 401k] rather than the pension system. It is the most recent generations that got the benefit of the US being such a large part of the global economy that they received benefits unsustainable to us. </p>
<p>We boomers were just deluded with the two decade rise in stock &amp; home values. And now we have to deal with what we had hoped to avoid facing. More saving to have a decent retirement. And fixing the system to ensure we leave things decent for our kids &#8211; as we had already done to help end the war &amp; get the environment back on track.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5620</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 16:14:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5620</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Brian J - I think the point made is correct.  Even if the pensions had been run efficiently, invested to the necessary levels, and monitored carefully, the recent falls would have made the pensions underfunded.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brian J &#8211; I think the point made is correct.  Even if the pensions had been run efficiently, invested to the necessary levels, and monitored carefully, the recent falls would have made the pensions underfunded.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian J</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5618</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brian J]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 16:09:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5618</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;One is that even if they had been managed in a reasonable way, the fall in asset prices over the last year would have blown a huge hole in their long-term solvency.&quot;

Did you mean to say that the fall in asset prices --wouldn&#039;t-- have blown a hole in their long-term solvency?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;One is that even if they had been managed in a reasonable way, the fall in asset prices over the last year would have blown a huge hole in their long-term solvency.&#8221;</p>
<p>Did you mean to say that the fall in asset prices &#8211;wouldn&#8217;t&#8211; have blown a hole in their long-term solvency?</p>
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		<title>By: The Biggest&#8211;and Scariest&#8211;Story of the Year &#124; Far Left Rx</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5520</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[The Biggest&#8211;and Scariest&#8211;Story of the Year &#124; Far Left Rx]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2009 20:27:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5520</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Kwak over at The Baseline Scenario blog has a posting entitled &quot;The Biggest Story of the Year,&quot; which is also the scariest story of the year, documenting the destruction of the [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Kwak over at The Baseline Scenario blog has a posting entitled &quot;The Biggest Story of the Year,&quot; which is also the scariest story of the year, documenting the destruction of the [...]</p>
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		<title>By: anon.</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5511</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[anon.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2009 19:20:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5511</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At least a few people have been paying attention to this issue for a while: http://www.pensiontsunami.com/]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At least a few people have been paying attention to this issue for a while: <a href="http://www.pensiontsunami.com/" rel="nofollow">http://www.pensiontsunami.com/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Hillary Is 44 &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Why? Barack Obama - This Boat Is Sinking</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5502</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Hillary Is 44 &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Why? Barack Obama - This Boat Is Sinking]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2009 18:29:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5502</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] much for the upbeat news. The worse is yet to come: The Biggest Story of the Week. Or the year. [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] much for the upbeat news. The worse is yet to come: The Biggest Story of the Week. Or the year. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Robert</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5480</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Robert]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2009 15:31:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5480</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am reading &quot;While America Aged,&quot; a great book by Roger Lowenstein that deals with this very issue.  The stories about GM, the New York MTA (remember the strike?  it was about pensions) and the San Diego debacle are scary.  Pensions are easy to abuse, because politicians can please the unions without immediate spending. By the time the bill comes due, they are long gone.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am reading &#8220;While America Aged,&#8221; a great book by Roger Lowenstein that deals with this very issue.  The stories about GM, the New York MTA (remember the strike?  it was about pensions) and the San Diego debacle are scary.  Pensions are easy to abuse, because politicians can please the unions without immediate spending. By the time the bill comes due, they are long gone.</p>
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		<title>By: Chuck</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5444</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chuck]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2009 04:19:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5444</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Assuming large portions of Obamas spending splurg end up getting derailed by both republicans and some democrats - then we can assume that the markets will be much higher 10 years from now than they currently are.  That being the case, a dose of dollar cost averaging by the state, at this time of buying (we hope low) would be wise.  
Now, if this spending binge is allowed to actually be implimented then thats another story.  But, it won&#039;t matter because there won&#039;t be a market.  
Your blog is thought provoking]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Assuming large portions of Obamas spending splurg end up getting derailed by both republicans and some democrats &#8211; then we can assume that the markets will be much higher 10 years from now than they currently are.  That being the case, a dose of dollar cost averaging by the state, at this time of buying (we hope low) would be wise.<br />
Now, if this spending binge is allowed to actually be implimented then thats another story.  But, it won&#8217;t matter because there won&#8217;t be a market.<br />
Your blog is thought provoking</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5443</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Anonymous]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2009 04:17:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5443</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[you&#039;re a dick]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>you&#8217;re a dick</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Observer</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5440</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Observer]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2009 03:55:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5440</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is another very important topic that I&#039;m confident that the federal government will not act upon until there&#039;s a crisis.....and I mean elderly pan-handling on every street corner.  Here&#039;s the recipe for elderly impoverishment:  allow companies to do away with pension plans, replace them with 401K plans that are voluntary....that is if the company even offers a 401K plan at all, provide little to no guidance to employees on how to invest the money in their 401K plans, give them the option to withdraw funds from their 401K&#039;s when they change jobs...every 3 years or so, force people to tap into their home equity in mid-life to pay off credit card debt, uninsured medical expenses, college tuition, etc.....thus never building up any equity in their homes, add an underfunded social security program and voila.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is another very important topic that I&#8217;m confident that the federal government will not act upon until there&#8217;s a crisis&#8230;..and I mean elderly pan-handling on every street corner.  Here&#8217;s the recipe for elderly impoverishment:  allow companies to do away with pension plans, replace them with 401K plans that are voluntary&#8230;.that is if the company even offers a 401K plan at all, provide little to no guidance to employees on how to invest the money in their 401K plans, give them the option to withdraw funds from their 401K&#8217;s when they change jobs&#8230;every 3 years or so, force people to tap into their home equity in mid-life to pay off credit card debt, uninsured medical expenses, college tuition, etc&#8230;..thus never building up any equity in their homes, add an underfunded social security program and voila.</p>
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		<title>By: Top Posts &#171; WordPress.com</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5436</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Top Posts &#171; WordPress.com]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2009 00:39:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5436</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...]  The Biggest Story of the Week Or the year. Frightening. I&#8217;ve been wondering why the impact of the financial crisis on the overall retirement [...] [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...]  The Biggest Story of the Week Or the year. Frightening. I&#8217;ve been wondering why the impact of the financial crisis on the overall retirement [...] [...]</p>
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		<title>By: micargi cruiser</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5432</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[micargi cruiser]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 22:53:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5432</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post reminds me of something I heard about the Carlyle Group some time back.  From what I heard, they had taken a teacher&#039;s pension fund in Canada and just convinced those folks that Carlyle knew what was best for their money.  So for me, the issue isn&#039;t just how people&#039;s pensions are being lost, I have reason to believe that these pension funds are already gone due to unsound financial planning and downright corporate theft.  We will see how this one unravels in the next few months, no doubt.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This post reminds me of something I heard about the Carlyle Group some time back.  From what I heard, they had taken a teacher&#8217;s pension fund in Canada and just convinced those folks that Carlyle knew what was best for their money.  So for me, the issue isn&#8217;t just how people&#8217;s pensions are being lost, I have reason to believe that these pension funds are already gone due to unsound financial planning and downright corporate theft.  We will see how this one unravels in the next few months, no doubt.</p>
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		<title>By: The Crossed Pond &#187; Quote of the Day</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/03/retirement-pension-underfunding-crisis/#comment-5428</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[The Crossed Pond &#187; Quote of the Day]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 19:57:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2766#comment-5428</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] &#8212;James Kwak    posted in: Quotes [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] &#8212;James Kwak    posted in: Quotes [...]</p>
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