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	<title>Comments on: Every Consensus Must End</title>
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	<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/</link>
	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
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		<title>By: mark</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4610</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mark]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 21:06:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4610</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Keynesian spending is not a new consensus really. It&#039;s just that the usual monetary tool (lowering interest rates) is no longer available. 

If interest rates were higher and lowering them would bring the credit markets and the economy back, then this huge spending would not be occurring.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Keynesian spending is not a new consensus really. It&#8217;s just that the usual monetary tool (lowering interest rates) is no longer available. </p>
<p>If interest rates were higher and lowering them would bring the credit markets and the economy back, then this huge spending would not be occurring.</p>
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		<title>By: On the Contrary &#187; Blog Archive &#187; The Enemy Within, The Enemy Without</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4421</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[On the Contrary &#187; Blog Archive &#187; The Enemy Within, The Enemy Without]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Feb 2009 10:15:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4421</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] We are facing a critical crisis in our banking system, but the banking system’s leverage on the Democrats with their minions filling almost all critical positions that must steward this correction, and their lobbying leverage on both Democrats and Republicans make them the Enemy Within to thwart any real change.  The Banking industry has a vested interest in returning to the status quo that made them wealthy.  Our country has a vested interest in breaking up these large banks and making them and their stockholders feel some of the pain for their toxic investments.  As Simon Johnson, former IMF chief economist wrote on his blog, The Baseline Scenario: [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] We are facing a critical crisis in our banking system, but the banking system’s leverage on the Democrats with their minions filling almost all critical positions that must steward this correction, and their lobbying leverage on both Democrats and Republicans make them the Enemy Within to thwart any real change.  The Banking industry has a vested interest in returning to the status quo that made them wealthy.  Our country has a vested interest in breaking up these large banks and making them and their stockholders feel some of the pain for their toxic investments.  As Simon Johnson, former IMF chief economist wrote on his blog, The Baseline Scenario: [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Taxpayer</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4355</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Taxpayer]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Feb 2009 16:55:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4355</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Where was government during the dot-com busts, when 80% of people&#039;s investments vanished ? We ate that loss and learned something from it.

Since when it&#039;s the government&#039;s job to backstop people who take too much risk ? Since when is a government requirement to keep people in houses they cannot afford ?

All the government help talk centers around how bad it would be if the houses were allowed to correct to normal levels. But that&#039;s not a given. And it doesn&#039;t sound like government intervention is doing much beyond dragging this crisis for (conceivably) another decade while the losses continue to compound.

If one cannot afford a house, one rents. It&#039;s not the end of the world. Like the rest who aren&#039;t &quot;homeowers&quot; yet. It might even be better for them that they remove a 20-year burden they cannot possible sustain, one could rent a house for a lot less than what they pay for mortgage now.

Mark my words. This is not for the people. This is for the banks and the financial world. So the banks do not have to recognize a loss. To prevent people from &quot;walking away&quot; from underwater mortgages which would force them to admit the loss on the books.

Because so many banks leveraged so much that they would be considered immediately insolvent if investors learned how flaky their &quot;A-grade&quot; collateral is and how little the mortgage-backed securities are really worth.

It&#039;s not for the little man. The little man gets to continue paying all his income into the system. He won&#039;t have more money to &quot;help the economy&quot;. But the banks will be ok. 

And your children will never afford a house, ever again, as long as house prices are maintained disconnected from the salaries.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Where was government during the dot-com busts, when 80% of people&#8217;s investments vanished ? We ate that loss and learned something from it.</p>
<p>Since when it&#8217;s the government&#8217;s job to backstop people who take too much risk ? Since when is a government requirement to keep people in houses they cannot afford ?</p>
<p>All the government help talk centers around how bad it would be if the houses were allowed to correct to normal levels. But that&#8217;s not a given. And it doesn&#8217;t sound like government intervention is doing much beyond dragging this crisis for (conceivably) another decade while the losses continue to compound.</p>
<p>If one cannot afford a house, one rents. It&#8217;s not the end of the world. Like the rest who aren&#8217;t &#8220;homeowers&#8221; yet. It might even be better for them that they remove a 20-year burden they cannot possible sustain, one could rent a house for a lot less than what they pay for mortgage now.</p>
<p>Mark my words. This is not for the people. This is for the banks and the financial world. So the banks do not have to recognize a loss. To prevent people from &#8220;walking away&#8221; from underwater mortgages which would force them to admit the loss on the books.</p>
<p>Because so many banks leveraged so much that they would be considered immediately insolvent if investors learned how flaky their &#8220;A-grade&#8221; collateral is and how little the mortgage-backed securities are really worth.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not for the little man. The little man gets to continue paying all his income into the system. He won&#8217;t have more money to &#8220;help the economy&#8221;. But the banks will be ok. </p>
<p>And your children will never afford a house, ever again, as long as house prices are maintained disconnected from the salaries.</p>
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		<title>By: Billy Jones</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4307</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Billy Jones]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Feb 2009 01:07:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4307</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[just want to add that if we are to get thru this,,, we will....please look at history....my three year old son took a nap today on the couch....i have a two dollar bill (framed) with Thomas Jefferson&#039;s picture on the front.....he woke up crying and pointing to the two dollar bill....the clue&#039;s on how to solve this are in the history books.....good luck!!!!if there is a God,,,,he will guide if meant to be...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>just want to add that if we are to get thru this,,, we will&#8230;.please look at history&#8230;.my three year old son took a nap today on the couch&#8230;.i have a two dollar bill (framed) with Thomas Jefferson&#8217;s picture on the front&#8230;..he woke up crying and pointing to the two dollar bill&#8230;.the clue&#8217;s on how to solve this are in the history books&#8230;..good luck!!!!if there is a God,,,,he will guide if meant to be&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Billy Jones</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4300</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Billy Jones]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 23:26:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4300</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[the political aspect of manufacturing inflation worries me....this stuff is going to get uglier it looks like.....will the ave joe buy thier rates going up? and they do vote...i can tell you this housing plan will be controversial....i just returned from the grocery store where the check out clerk (black lady) was furious that some of people were going to get help with mortgage and she said that she paid her 1k per month mortgage just fine...it&#039;s a necessity but looks like a pr nightmare....will be a gut check for the decision makers....]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>the political aspect of manufacturing inflation worries me&#8230;.this stuff is going to get uglier it looks like&#8230;..will the ave joe buy thier rates going up? and they do vote&#8230;i can tell you this housing plan will be controversial&#8230;.i just returned from the grocery store where the check out clerk (black lady) was furious that some of people were going to get help with mortgage and she said that she paid her 1k per month mortgage just fine&#8230;it&#8217;s a necessity but looks like a pr nightmare&#8230;.will be a gut check for the decision makers&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: StatsGuy</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4294</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[StatsGuy]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 22:44:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4294</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At this point, inflation is the only answer.  It will either happen deliberately, or will be forced on the US when it approaches debt default (which will be vastly worse than if inflation happens now).

The only question is how much damage will be done to the economy until those in power accede to this necessity.  The answer appears to be far more than was initially expected, given the six months that have passed since the crisis hit full throttle and the fourteen months since the recession began.

Couple points: monetary policy does not create the boom/bust cycle.  The cycle existed before that.  Read up on the Tulip Mania.  We had depressions (not recessions, the D word) in the 1800s every 20 years or so.  This myth is plainly stupid, yet hard-money ultra-con fanatics perpetuate it everywhere.  This is a pretty good tip-off that the person writing is intellectually deficient.  While one can make legitimate arguments in support of hard money, lying about history is not one of them.

Point 2:

We&#039;re currently in a classic prisoner&#039;s dilemma.  The only path out of growth is the expectation of future growth.  Other than another world war, it&#039;s hard to foresee what will spur this.

Allowing house and asset values to continue to plummet further means wiping out 20%-40% of households&#039; net worth.  Nominal and real values must approach parity, and that can be done either through massive bankruptcy or reflation.

The consequences of massive bankruptcy are more extreme than one would expect.  The size of the federal debt would continue to balloon as it _borrows_ money to pay off the increasing size of depositors and creditors, not to mention insurance companies going bust.  Tax revenues drop like a rock.  US Govt. loses its credit worthiness.  Everything literally implodes.  Unwilling to watch mass starvation, you can bet that governments will intervene and we will see MORE government control over the economy rather than less.

The interesting and uniquely American dynamic here is that everyone is so terrified that Joe and Jane down the street might get more than their fair share, that they would rather the entire economy burn.  Hard money fanatics have been pumping the notion of &quot;letting the dead wood burn so we can regrow from a stable base&quot; or one of a dozen variations on this concept.  They either have no clue or truly believe that suffering is a good thing.

BTW, it&#039;s not that hard to not reward people who got locked into loans they could not afford.  Place liens on houses that accept support - as incomes rise, so do payments.  When the house is sold, the govt. recovers any future gain in asset values.  The legal ssytem already supports this mechanism.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At this point, inflation is the only answer.  It will either happen deliberately, or will be forced on the US when it approaches debt default (which will be vastly worse than if inflation happens now).</p>
<p>The only question is how much damage will be done to the economy until those in power accede to this necessity.  The answer appears to be far more than was initially expected, given the six months that have passed since the crisis hit full throttle and the fourteen months since the recession began.</p>
<p>Couple points: monetary policy does not create the boom/bust cycle.  The cycle existed before that.  Read up on the Tulip Mania.  We had depressions (not recessions, the D word) in the 1800s every 20 years or so.  This myth is plainly stupid, yet hard-money ultra-con fanatics perpetuate it everywhere.  This is a pretty good tip-off that the person writing is intellectually deficient.  While one can make legitimate arguments in support of hard money, lying about history is not one of them.</p>
<p>Point 2:</p>
<p>We&#8217;re currently in a classic prisoner&#8217;s dilemma.  The only path out of growth is the expectation of future growth.  Other than another world war, it&#8217;s hard to foresee what will spur this.</p>
<p>Allowing house and asset values to continue to plummet further means wiping out 20%-40% of households&#8217; net worth.  Nominal and real values must approach parity, and that can be done either through massive bankruptcy or reflation.</p>
<p>The consequences of massive bankruptcy are more extreme than one would expect.  The size of the federal debt would continue to balloon as it _borrows_ money to pay off the increasing size of depositors and creditors, not to mention insurance companies going bust.  Tax revenues drop like a rock.  US Govt. loses its credit worthiness.  Everything literally implodes.  Unwilling to watch mass starvation, you can bet that governments will intervene and we will see MORE government control over the economy rather than less.</p>
<p>The interesting and uniquely American dynamic here is that everyone is so terrified that Joe and Jane down the street might get more than their fair share, that they would rather the entire economy burn.  Hard money fanatics have been pumping the notion of &#8220;letting the dead wood burn so we can regrow from a stable base&#8221; or one of a dozen variations on this concept.  They either have no clue or truly believe that suffering is a good thing.</p>
<p>BTW, it&#8217;s not that hard to not reward people who got locked into loans they could not afford.  Place liens on houses that accept support &#8211; as incomes rise, so do payments.  When the house is sold, the govt. recovers any future gain in asset values.  The legal ssytem already supports this mechanism.</p>
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		<title>By: Links 18/02/09 &#171; Bounded Rationality</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4282</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Links 18/02/09 &#171; Bounded Rationality]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 21:20:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4282</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Every Consensus Must End [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Every Consensus Must End [...]</p>
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		<title>By: James</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4274</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[James]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 20:05:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4274</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here&#039;s for a new consensus!

Stop trying to prop up house prices. They are not in touch with reality. Mortgages are waay higher than rents, that is not normal. They are also out of proportion compared to salaries, that is an indicator that the asset prices are too high. 

If we &quot;stabilize house prices&quot; the way they are, we will fondly remember this as the last decade a worker could actually afford to buy a house on the salary.

Create new banks, fund them with the TARP money which will unlock 10-12 times as much credit (using &quot;normal&quot; leverage).
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/622-Fiscal-Cat-5-Hurricane-Warning.html

Here&#039;s a more recent and exhaustive laundry list of proposed changes:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/791-To-The-Republicans.html]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s for a new consensus!</p>
<p>Stop trying to prop up house prices. They are not in touch with reality. Mortgages are waay higher than rents, that is not normal. They are also out of proportion compared to salaries, that is an indicator that the asset prices are too high. </p>
<p>If we &#8220;stabilize house prices&#8221; the way they are, we will fondly remember this as the last decade a worker could actually afford to buy a house on the salary.</p>
<p>Create new banks, fund them with the TARP money which will unlock 10-12 times as much credit (using &#8220;normal&#8221; leverage).<br />
<a href="http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/622-Fiscal-Cat-5-Hurricane-Warning.html" rel="nofollow">http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/622-Fiscal-Cat-5-Hurricane-Warning.html</a></p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a more recent and exhaustive laundry list of proposed changes:<br />
<a href="http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/791-To-The-Republicans.html" rel="nofollow">http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/791-To-The-Republicans.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: Bob</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4272</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 19:44:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4272</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yeah right, increase inflation to rid of debt. Wipe out the responsible people who actually saved money, after they&#039;ve been shafted making sure they can never buy a house ever again.

Guess what. Do that and I guarantee my money will LEAVE THIS ECONOMY. I will not spend one cent over what you are already stealing from me in taxes to support the greedy who moved into mansions on a hairdresser salary while I sit there waiting patiently to accumulate 20% for a downpayment.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah right, increase inflation to rid of debt. Wipe out the responsible people who actually saved money, after they&#8217;ve been shafted making sure they can never buy a house ever again.</p>
<p>Guess what. Do that and I guarantee my money will LEAVE THIS ECONOMY. I will not spend one cent over what you are already stealing from me in taxes to support the greedy who moved into mansions on a hairdresser salary while I sit there waiting patiently to accumulate 20% for a downpayment.</p>
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		<title>By: Ron</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4256</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ron]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 18:15:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4256</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It’s Not Our National Debt!
Washington has bailed out the banks, Wall Street &amp; their Washington special interests and the cost is added to the national debt to by paid by this and future generations. This is after they created a credit bubble which has burst into depression and the result is 50% losses in our stock portfolios and almost as much on our homes and real estate investments. 

The Campaign to Cancel the Washington National Debt By Constitutional Amendment is starting now in the U.S. See the following URL for more information:  http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=67594690498&amp;ref=ts]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s Not Our National Debt!<br />
Washington has bailed out the banks, Wall Street &amp; their Washington special interests and the cost is added to the national debt to by paid by this and future generations. This is after they created a credit bubble which has burst into depression and the result is 50% losses in our stock portfolios and almost as much on our homes and real estate investments. </p>
<p>The Campaign to Cancel the Washington National Debt By Constitutional Amendment is starting now in the U.S. See the following URL for more information:  <a href="http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=67594690498&#038;ref=ts" rel="nofollow">http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=67594690498&#038;ref=ts</a></p>
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		<title>By: Billy Jones</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4245</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Billy Jones]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 16:56:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4245</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[a cap on loans is a good idea with fdic insurance....it worries me that the quantity of loans would slim down....can our smaller banks handle the extra biz? we need to make as many quality loans as possible to get this beast turned around....i bet someone can crunch some numbers to see if smaller banks can handle the distribution....they would love the biz if they are not maxed out....also,,need better rates so these banks can get some capital...a little inflation never hurt anyone,,,especially in a deflationary spiral that we are in...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>a cap on loans is a good idea with fdic insurance&#8230;.it worries me that the quantity of loans would slim down&#8230;.can our smaller banks handle the extra biz? we need to make as many quality loans as possible to get this beast turned around&#8230;.i bet someone can crunch some numbers to see if smaller banks can handle the distribution&#8230;.they would love the biz if they are not maxed out&#8230;.also,,need better rates so these banks can get some capital&#8230;a little inflation never hurt anyone,,,especially in a deflationary spiral that we are in&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Matt Welland</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4242</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Welland]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 16:38:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4242</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Easy solution for keeping big banks from getting too big: have FDIC insurance apply only for banks below a certain size. Maybe define size by how much the bank has loaned out so the bank can have lots of assets but once it gets beyond a certain threshold in loans it loses eligibility for FDIC insurance. When that happens notify the account holders and watch them scramble for other smaller banks.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Easy solution for keeping big banks from getting too big: have FDIC insurance apply only for banks below a certain size. Maybe define size by how much the bank has loaned out so the bank can have lots of assets but once it gets beyond a certain threshold in loans it loses eligibility for FDIC insurance. When that happens notify the account holders and watch them scramble for other smaller banks.</p>
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		<title>By: me</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4178</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[me]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 00:28:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4178</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Which part of the word &quot;taxpayer&quot; don&#039;t you get?

Clue: think of the &quot;woolpayer&quot; (the animal formerly known as &quot;sheep&quot;).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Which part of the word &#8220;taxpayer&#8221; don&#8217;t you get?</p>
<p>Clue: think of the &#8220;woolpayer&#8221; (the animal formerly known as &#8220;sheep&#8221;).</p>
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		<title>By: truthynesslover</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4125</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[truthynesslover]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Feb 2009 18:51:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4125</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is no accident.They knew what they were doing.Remember what ENRON and DICK cheney did to california?Well the banks with the assisitance of bush and co.are doing the same thing to us and the world. 
See grover nordquist and his quote about shrinking the govt. to the size he could get it into the bathtub and drown it.
What other institutions could do that?Worldwide?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is no accident.They knew what they were doing.Remember what ENRON and DICK cheney did to california?Well the banks with the assisitance of bush and co.are doing the same thing to us and the world.<br />
See grover nordquist and his quote about shrinking the govt. to the size he could get it into the bathtub and drown it.<br />
What other institutions could do that?Worldwide?</p>
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		<title>By: Irish Left Review &#183; Every Consensus Must End &#34; The Baseline Scenario</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/16/every-consensus-must-end/#comment-4102</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Irish Left Review &#183; Every Consensus Must End &#34; The Baseline Scenario]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Feb 2009 13:27:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2554#comment-4102</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Every Consensus Must End &#8221; The Baseline Scenario [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Every Consensus Must End &#8221; The Baseline Scenario [...]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
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