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	<title>Comments on: Baseline Scenario, 2/9/09</title>
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	<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/</link>
	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
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		<title>By: leftymarine</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-6090</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[leftymarine]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Mar 2009 03:18:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-6090</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thank you for the clarity in describing the current situation and the possibilities for the future.

I have to say, part of me is scared s**tless.

As an aspiring economics student and teacher, continue the good work.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you for the clarity in describing the current situation and the possibilities for the future.</p>
<p>I have to say, part of me is scared s**tless.</p>
<p>As an aspiring economics student and teacher, continue the good work.</p>
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		<title>By: Hector Grebien-Samkow</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5903</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Hector Grebien-Samkow]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Mar 2009 13:22:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5903</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What is wrong with citizenchallenge&#039;s view?  That it has no quick answer?  Or is naive?  Or unimportant?  Why not respond with something like:  &quot;Yes, you are right.  We the experts have always addressed the short-term.  This must change.  We have never been responsible servants of the common good.  We must rethink our fundamental values and always include sustainability in our equations.  Materialism is a doomed religion.  We have seen greed on a global scale and it is bad.&quot;  

But of course this is very hard.  It must seem easier working to put Humpty Dumpty together again.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What is wrong with citizenchallenge&#8217;s view?  That it has no quick answer?  Or is naive?  Or unimportant?  Why not respond with something like:  &#8220;Yes, you are right.  We the experts have always addressed the short-term.  This must change.  We have never been responsible servants of the common good.  We must rethink our fundamental values and always include sustainability in our equations.  Materialism is a doomed religion.  We have seen greed on a global scale and it is bad.&#8221;  </p>
<p>But of course this is very hard.  It must seem easier working to put Humpty Dumpty together again.</p>
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		<title>By: balti667</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5872</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[balti667]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Mar 2009 02:42:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5872</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My impression from following this in the papers, and being &quot;a news junkie&quot; to the extent it gets in the way of work, is that the economic crisis is somehwat analogous to a heart attack: as life-threatening as that event is, it&#039;s also an expression of underlying much greater problems -- greater because they are deeper, wider, and more pervasive than they appear. They&#039;ve been gestating without our honest attention.  As bad as this economic crisis is, I suspect that it is symptomatic of generally poor living habits on a dozen fronts.  Dr. Obama is going to have to tell us patients some news we really are trying not to hear: change the way we live, er,... &quot;our lifestyles,&quot; because this way of operating in the world is not sustainable.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My impression from following this in the papers, and being &#8220;a news junkie&#8221; to the extent it gets in the way of work, is that the economic crisis is somehwat analogous to a heart attack: as life-threatening as that event is, it&#8217;s also an expression of underlying much greater problems &#8212; greater because they are deeper, wider, and more pervasive than they appear. They&#8217;ve been gestating without our honest attention.  As bad as this economic crisis is, I suspect that it is symptomatic of generally poor living habits on a dozen fronts.  Dr. Obama is going to have to tell us patients some news we really are trying not to hear: change the way we live, er,&#8230; &#8220;our lifestyles,&#8221; because this way of operating in the world is not sustainable.</p>
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		<title>By: balti667</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5869</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[balti667]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Mar 2009 02:30:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5869</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;.... America’s fantastic success these past couple centuries being attributable to the cornucopia of land and resources that lay before us immigrants. Sure our ingenuity helped, but without the resources at our disposal, all the ingenuity in the world would have come to naught.&quot;

  A point I have often returned to, and which my parents before me made: remember that the European hordes just flooded into this &quot;new&quot; land and simply took what they wanted, and dispossessed the peoples already here.  It was a continuous war and nearly a genocide.  The resources were abundant and relatively easy to acquire.  Now, and more so in the future, what will we do when we can&#039;t simply take what we want from relatively defenseless peoples? It strikes me that we have not yet paid the price for all that we took, especially in terms of the ease we became accustomed to, the corrosive effect that ease has had in inflating our sense of entitlement; the studied blind eye our country turned toward stewardship, and the decimation of the indigenous peoples who knew quite a bit about stewardship and could have taught us what we now need to know.  Many loose threads of behavior will come home to roost -- that is, will come around so that we&#039;re on the receiving end of our own past behavior and its consequences.  We must do better.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;&#8230;. America’s fantastic success these past couple centuries being attributable to the cornucopia of land and resources that lay before us immigrants. Sure our ingenuity helped, but without the resources at our disposal, all the ingenuity in the world would have come to naught.&#8221;</p>
<p>  A point I have often returned to, and which my parents before me made: remember that the European hordes just flooded into this &#8220;new&#8221; land and simply took what they wanted, and dispossessed the peoples already here.  It was a continuous war and nearly a genocide.  The resources were abundant and relatively easy to acquire.  Now, and more so in the future, what will we do when we can&#8217;t simply take what we want from relatively defenseless peoples? It strikes me that we have not yet paid the price for all that we took, especially in terms of the ease we became accustomed to, the corrosive effect that ease has had in inflating our sense of entitlement; the studied blind eye our country turned toward stewardship, and the decimation of the indigenous peoples who knew quite a bit about stewardship and could have taught us what we now need to know.  Many loose threads of behavior will come home to roost &#8212; that is, will come around so that we&#8217;re on the receiving end of our own past behavior and its consequences.  We must do better.</p>
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		<title>By: TheMoneyIllusion &#187; Are things moving our way?</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5812</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[TheMoneyIllusion &#187; Are things moving our way?]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2009 16:43:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5812</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Woolsey just sent me a link showing that in February the Baseline Scenario had also argued for unconventional monetary expansion.  After discussing why fiscal stimulus and [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Woolsey just sent me a link showing that in February the Baseline Scenario had also argued for unconventional monetary expansion.  After discussing why fiscal stimulus and [...]</p>
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		<title>By: John Médaille</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5807</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John Médaille]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2009 16:07:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5807</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dave, I am all for machinery, but you still haven&#039;t answered the question about the problem of distribution. You pretend to cite the Industrial Revolution, but are you looking at the real history? Yes, they produced more stuff, but had a problem distributing it. There was a chronic failure of aggregate demand, that is constant recessions. In the period of 1853 to 1953, the economy was in recession 40% of the time. Since then, only 15% of the time. And the pre-war recessions were on average twice as deep and twice as long as the post-war ones. Is that what you want? Post war, they &quot;solved&quot; the problem by having the gov&#039;t soak up excess supply, which is why we have a gov&#039;t that is more than a third of the economy. 

You say S &amp; D will take care of the problem, but history tells a different story. And T. Boone doesn&#039;t get it, &quot;it&quot; being the gov&#039;t subsidies he wants for his schemes. They may be good schemes or not, but one does wonder why, if the economy is so efficient, that our most &quot;efficient&quot; sectors require such large subsidies.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dave, I am all for machinery, but you still haven&#8217;t answered the question about the problem of distribution. You pretend to cite the Industrial Revolution, but are you looking at the real history? Yes, they produced more stuff, but had a problem distributing it. There was a chronic failure of aggregate demand, that is constant recessions. In the period of 1853 to 1953, the economy was in recession 40% of the time. Since then, only 15% of the time. And the pre-war recessions were on average twice as deep and twice as long as the post-war ones. Is that what you want? Post war, they &#8220;solved&#8221; the problem by having the gov&#8217;t soak up excess supply, which is why we have a gov&#8217;t that is more than a third of the economy. </p>
<p>You say S &amp; D will take care of the problem, but history tells a different story. And T. Boone doesn&#8217;t get it, &#8220;it&#8221; being the gov&#8217;t subsidies he wants for his schemes. They may be good schemes or not, but one does wonder why, if the economy is so efficient, that our most &#8220;efficient&#8221; sectors require such large subsidies.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave G.</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5787</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave G.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2009 05:56:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5787</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[John, the 19th century Industrial Revolution did not cause markets to shrink. The farm laborers became factory workers, the wagon riders became truckers, and the craftsmen became engineers - since then output has expanded and it has been consumed, domestically and abroad. 

The crux of the matter is to learn from the mistakes of others like the Brits, who frittered away their competitive advantage in production to none other than the US. Now the US is in danger of repeating history - unless we do something differently.  

Currently, the developing nations have a huge advantage over the US, namely the masses of people who are willing to be more industrious than Americans, to work for far lower wages, and to risk dangerous working and living conditions. We must negate this advantage, or wither!

Supply and demand will take care of what we will produce, and who will consume our output.  It did so after the Industrial Revolution and I expect it will do so again.

T. Boone Pickens gets it - do you?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John, the 19th century Industrial Revolution did not cause markets to shrink. The farm laborers became factory workers, the wagon riders became truckers, and the craftsmen became engineers &#8211; since then output has expanded and it has been consumed, domestically and abroad. </p>
<p>The crux of the matter is to learn from the mistakes of others like the Brits, who frittered away their competitive advantage in production to none other than the US. Now the US is in danger of repeating history &#8211; unless we do something differently.  </p>
<p>Currently, the developing nations have a huge advantage over the US, namely the masses of people who are willing to be more industrious than Americans, to work for far lower wages, and to risk dangerous working and living conditions. We must negate this advantage, or wither!</p>
<p>Supply and demand will take care of what we will produce, and who will consume our output.  It did so after the Industrial Revolution and I expect it will do so again.</p>
<p>T. Boone Pickens gets it &#8211; do you?</p>
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		<title>By: David J Bhaltazhar Esq</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5786</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David J Bhaltazhar Esq]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2009 05:18:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5786</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Spene your dollar today,
tomorrow it will be worthless.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Spene your dollar today,<br />
tomorrow it will be worthless.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: John Médaille</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5784</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John Médaille]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2009 04:19:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5784</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dave, wonderful idea. Just one question. After you have replaced all those nuisance workers with machines, to whom will you sell the output?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dave, wonderful idea. Just one question. After you have replaced all those nuisance workers with machines, to whom will you sell the output?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: balti667</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5771</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[balti667]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2009 00:17:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5771</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;The main dynamic is a fall in credit demand rather than constraints on credit supply in the US.” That statement seems so questionable on its face that I wonder if there is some technical definition of &quot;credit demand&quot; intended, that I am not aware of. Can someone present a definition of &quot;credit demand?&quot;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The main dynamic is a fall in credit demand rather than constraints on credit supply in the US.” That statement seems so questionable on its face that I wonder if there is some technical definition of &#8220;credit demand&#8221; intended, that I am not aware of. Can someone present a definition of &#8220;credit demand?&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Bill Bradbrooke</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5751</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bill Bradbrooke]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Mar 2009 20:21:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Citizenchallenge: 

You are earnest, you are concerned, you frame your concerns articulately, and you are refreshingly polite. I share your concerns. I like what I sense are your values and I would go out on a limb and guess that you are a responsible member of your community, a good neighbor and a reliable friend. 

I particularly like your last paragraph. Yes, we need humility, we need to want to learn, we need to be listen while maintaining open minds. Accordingly, I entreat you to spend just a little more time at The Baseline Scenario. Reread and engage, but this time, instead of skimming, please consider who the folks at The Baseline Scenario are and what the nature of their subject matter is. 

These are professional economists. They have spent decades studying the collective outcomes of everyday decisions made by individuals within large systems. You speak of &quot;productivity&quot; and &quot;resources;&quot; so do they. When they talk global inflation going from an annual rate of -1% to +.5% they are, in fact, describing a shift in &quot;productivity&quot; that would  result in satisfying basic human needs for food and shelter for millions while providing surplus sufficient to fund sound regulatory policy for, amongst other things, the environment. Funding of  wetlands enhancement projects, reforestation or watershed studies is seldom undertaken when the population is hungry or frightened. When they speak of a misallocation of &quot;resources&quot; into dangerous financial structures, they are talking about a disregard for what is really needed in the land. They seek the workable policy mechanisms for fulfilling real needs. Specifically, they mention health care, manufacturing, education, infrastructure, research and development and sound regulatory policy. 

Somehow I feel you would approve of a circumstance where your job and home are secure, as well as those of your neighbor, where the environment is subject to sound regulatory policy, where education and health care are available to all, and where you would earn tax credits for alternative fuel choices such as adding a panel to your solar power array or purchasing an electric vehicle. 

So, Citizenchallenge, you and the folks at The Baseline Scenario have a lot in common. You may not recognize buzz words with which you are familiar, but all your concerns are addressed. Read a little more, become accustomed to the significance behind the nomenklatura of economics, and you will see.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Citizenchallenge: </p>
<p>You are earnest, you are concerned, you frame your concerns articulately, and you are refreshingly polite. I share your concerns. I like what I sense are your values and I would go out on a limb and guess that you are a responsible member of your community, a good neighbor and a reliable friend. </p>
<p>I particularly like your last paragraph. Yes, we need humility, we need to want to learn, we need to be listen while maintaining open minds. Accordingly, I entreat you to spend just a little more time at The Baseline Scenario. Reread and engage, but this time, instead of skimming, please consider who the folks at The Baseline Scenario are and what the nature of their subject matter is. </p>
<p>These are professional economists. They have spent decades studying the collective outcomes of everyday decisions made by individuals within large systems. You speak of &#8220;productivity&#8221; and &#8220;resources;&#8221; so do they. When they talk global inflation going from an annual rate of -1% to +.5% they are, in fact, describing a shift in &#8220;productivity&#8221; that would  result in satisfying basic human needs for food and shelter for millions while providing surplus sufficient to fund sound regulatory policy for, amongst other things, the environment. Funding of  wetlands enhancement projects, reforestation or watershed studies is seldom undertaken when the population is hungry or frightened. When they speak of a misallocation of &#8220;resources&#8221; into dangerous financial structures, they are talking about a disregard for what is really needed in the land. They seek the workable policy mechanisms for fulfilling real needs. Specifically, they mention health care, manufacturing, education, infrastructure, research and development and sound regulatory policy. </p>
<p>Somehow I feel you would approve of a circumstance where your job and home are secure, as well as those of your neighbor, where the environment is subject to sound regulatory policy, where education and health care are available to all, and where you would earn tax credits for alternative fuel choices such as adding a panel to your solar power array or purchasing an electric vehicle. </p>
<p>So, Citizenchallenge, you and the folks at The Baseline Scenario have a lot in common. You may not recognize buzz words with which you are familiar, but all your concerns are addressed. Read a little more, become accustomed to the significance behind the nomenklatura of economics, and you will see.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5716</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Mar 2009 13:14:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5716</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Lehman was a major conterparty to derivatives.  the crisis is about the $700 trillion dollar in &#039;notational&#039; derivatives most of which were &#039;engineered&#039; in two years: 2005 and 2006 and that it is enough to swamp everything under the sun.  Lehman couldn&#039;t possibly be good on what it wrote.  7/10 quadrillion is 9 times bigger than global GDP. The Economist was screaming about it for many years.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Lehman was a major conterparty to derivatives.  the crisis is about the $700 trillion dollar in &#8216;notational&#8217; derivatives most of which were &#8216;engineered&#8217; in two years: 2005 and 2006 and that it is enough to swamp everything under the sun.  Lehman couldn&#8217;t possibly be good on what it wrote.  7/10 quadrillion is 9 times bigger than global GDP. The Economist was screaming about it for many years.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5715</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Mar 2009 13:08:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5715</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[banks create money by lending many multiples of their deposits and fed credits.  non-bank entities can only lend what they have.  so how can banks be mere intermediaries since they are the ones who create credit?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>banks create money by lending many multiples of their deposits and fed credits.  non-bank entities can only lend what they have.  so how can banks be mere intermediaries since they are the ones who create credit?</p>
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		<title>By: Dave G.</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5704</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave G.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Mar 2009 07:41:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5704</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Before the housing bubble we were constantly reminded that about 70% of the US economy is based upon consumer spending.  How is this sustainable in the long term? I propose that it is not ... and the crisis we are experiencing is symptomatic of this problem.

A society that bases its economy on 70% consumer spending is essentially transferring its wealth to countries that produce more than they consume.

Therefore, in coming out of this crises our goal should NOT be to return to the status priori.  To thrive over the long run we MUST return to producing at least as much as we consume. How?

Workers in developing countries are sure to work for lower wages than Americans, and politicians cannot be relied upon to level the playing field.

There is only one way - in factories we must replace most human workers with machines - probably robots.  Even the most industrious foreign workers can&#039;t compete with the speed, accuracy, and shear 24 x 7 brute force of machines. No UAW, no pensions, no runaway medical costs.

If the US fails to perform such an economic  transformation then we are destined to become the Britain of the 21st century - a quaint tourist destination with a second rate services sector. Oh, and you should start learning to speak and write Mandarin as soon as possible!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Before the housing bubble we were constantly reminded that about 70% of the US economy is based upon consumer spending.  How is this sustainable in the long term? I propose that it is not &#8230; and the crisis we are experiencing is symptomatic of this problem.</p>
<p>A society that bases its economy on 70% consumer spending is essentially transferring its wealth to countries that produce more than they consume.</p>
<p>Therefore, in coming out of this crises our goal should NOT be to return to the status priori.  To thrive over the long run we MUST return to producing at least as much as we consume. How?</p>
<p>Workers in developing countries are sure to work for lower wages than Americans, and politicians cannot be relied upon to level the playing field.</p>
<p>There is only one way &#8211; in factories we must replace most human workers with machines &#8211; probably robots.  Even the most industrious foreign workers can&#8217;t compete with the speed, accuracy, and shear 24 x 7 brute force of machines. No UAW, no pensions, no runaway medical costs.</p>
<p>If the US fails to perform such an economic  transformation then we are destined to become the Britain of the 21st century &#8211; a quaint tourist destination with a second rate services sector. Oh, and you should start learning to speak and write Mandarin as soon as possible!</p>
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		<title>By: Ann</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/baseline-scenario-2909/#comment-5699</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ann]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Mar 2009 05:19:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.com/?p=2393#comment-5699</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You conclude: &quot;The only solution is to invest in the basic ingredients of productivity growth - education, infrastructure, research and development, sound regulatory policy, and so on - so that our economy can develop new engines of growth.&quot; But it strikes me that the people charged with constructing such a solution remain primarily financially oriented and/or trained -- and as diversified as you would need to revitalize other sectors (manufacturing, retail, healthcare, etc).  Am I correct in thinking this bias remains in the new Administration?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You conclude: &#8220;The only solution is to invest in the basic ingredients of productivity growth &#8211; education, infrastructure, research and development, sound regulatory policy, and so on &#8211; so that our economy can develop new engines of growth.&#8221; But it strikes me that the people charged with constructing such a solution remain primarily financially oriented and/or trained &#8212; and as diversified as you would need to revitalize other sectors (manufacturing, retail, healthcare, etc).  Am I correct in thinking this bias remains in the new Administration?</p>
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