Comments on: A Sliver of Optimism

By: Greg

Greg — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 14:44:10 +0000

I very much doubt it was economic forecaster to keep pace. Just look at the U.S. government which took a year to announce that the U.S. was in a recession. I think it has more to do with the fact that nobody wanted to be labelled “crazy” and fired.

I recently saw an interview on CNN of an investment banker who said that “had he mentioned the word recession or depression” 12 months ago he would have probably lost his job and labelled “crazy”…

By: Bill W.

Bill W. — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 13:59:35 +0000

Both Oct and Nov employment losses were revised downward i.e., more negative.

And, according to Abelson in his piece this weekend, the “birth/death” model added upwards of 70,000 “new” jobs to the total.

Merrill’s econmist is suggesting that the December number (considering above) is more accurately calculated at -750,000… he goes on to comment that a -1,000,000 monthly data point is not to be dismissed as a 0% probability.

By: Manshu

Manshu — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 20:56:56 +0000

Q3 seems a long way away. And for some reason a recovery seems further away.

By: Tom K

Tom K — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 17:54:14 +0000

One of the bright spots of this crisis might be that it will bring about a cultural change in Americans. As a nation, we might be goaded into becoming more thrifty and less free spending (also a little more cognizant of risk). Though thrifty behavior is not a positive at this point, in general it is a good idea.

One has to wonder however whether this crisis will completely change America’s free spending ways. I truly doubt it. Once it appears that the crisis is easing, I think Americans will want to start consuming again. Never underestimate America’s ability to consume.

With that in mind, I can easily foresee growth again in Q3. With the summer at hand and consumers and vacationers eager to forget about economic doldrums, the great American consumer might just pull us out of recession.

As for the planet we are on, considering the last eight years and current events in the Middle East, this must be Mars.