Day: January 5, 2009

Causes: Hank Paulson

Other posts in this occasional series.

I generally prefer systemic explanations for events, but it is obviously worthwhile to complement this with a careful study of key individuals. And in the current crisis, no individual is as interesting or as puzzling as Hank Paulson.

The big question must be: How could a person with so much market experience be repeatedly at the center of such major misunderstandings regarding the markets, and how could his team – stuffed full of people like him – struggle so much to communicate what they were doing and why?

Hank Paulson’s exit interview with the Financial Times contains some potential answers but also generates some new puzzles.

Continue reading “Causes: Hank Paulson”

Eurozone Hard Pressed: 2% Fiscal Solution Deferred

One leading anti-recession idea for the moment is a global fiscal stimulus amounting to 2% of the planet’s GDP.  The precise math behind this calculation is still forthcoming, but it obviously assumes a big stimulus in the US and also needs to include a pretty big fiscal expansion in Europe.  (Emerging markets will barely be able to make a contribution that registers on the global scale.)

What are the likely prospects for a major eurozone fiscal stimulus?  My presentation yesterday on this question is here.  The main points are: Continue reading “Eurozone Hard Pressed: 2% Fiscal Solution Deferred”