The IMF is signalling that it will further revise down its global growth forecast.  This is after cutting the forecast sharply in October and again in November.  Their latest published view is growth in 2009 will be 2.2% year-on-year, and 2.4% fourth quarter on fourth quarter.  This view is dated November 6, 2008, so you should think of it as reflecting what the IMF knew at the end of October.

I obviously can’t predict exactly what the next forecast will look like, as there is a lot of economic ground to cover between now and mid-January.  But here are some considerations to keep in mind. Continue reading “Forecasting the Official Forecasts” →