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	<title>Comments on: Citigroup Bailout: Weak, Arbitrary, Incomprehensible</title>
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	<description>What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it</description>
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		<title>By: Global Economic Outlook (Senate Testimony) &#171; The Baseline Scenario</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-3063</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Global Economic Outlook (Senate Testimony) &#171; The Baseline Scenario]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Jan 2009 18:41:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-3063</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Citigroup bailout (the second round): http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/27/international-implications-of-the-citigroup-bailout/ and http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/ [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Citigroup bailout (the second round): <a href="http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/27/international-implications-of-the-citigroup-bailout/" rel="nofollow">http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/27/international-implications-of-the-citigroup-bailout/</a> and <a href="http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/" rel="nofollow">http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/</a> [...]</p>
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		<title>By: RealTime Economic Issues Watch</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-2686</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[RealTime Economic Issues Watch]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jan 2009 17:04:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-2686</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Essentially, this is the same deal that Citigroup received just before Thanksgiving, known as Citigroup II, which was generous to bank shareholders but not a good value for the [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Essentially, this is the same deal that Citigroup received just before Thanksgiving, known as Citigroup II, which was generous to bank shareholders but not a good value for the [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Bank of America Gets Quite a Deal &#171; The Baseline Scenario</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-2659</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bank of America Gets Quite a Deal &#171; The Baseline Scenario]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jan 2009 06:23:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-2659</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Essentially, this is the same deal that Citigroup received just before Thanksgiving, known as Citigroup II, which was generous to bank shareholders but not good value for the [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Essentially, this is the same deal that Citigroup received just before Thanksgiving, known as Citigroup II, which was generous to bank shareholders but not good value for the [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Citigroup Bailout is a GO - Page 2 - Conservative Republican Discussion Forums</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-1562</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Citigroup Bailout is a GO - Page 2 - Conservative Republican Discussion Forums]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2008 22:17:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-1562</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Oh, and it appears there will be NO management changes.&quot; Washington Post financial writer James Kwak:  &quot;The third goal should have been getting a good deal for the U.S. taxpayer, but instead Citi [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Oh, and it appears there will be NO management changes.&quot; Washington Post financial writer James Kwak:  &quot;The third goal should have been getting a good deal for the U.S. taxpayer, but instead Citi [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Troy</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-1561</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Troy]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2008 22:09:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-1561</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It is clear that rumors and artificial panics are being created and propagated by greedy short sellers. The solution has to respond to this problem. That means, the government must make these short sellers lose some big bucks. Hit them where it hurts! 

How do we do that? Let&#039;s take Citi as an example. Put a tender out there to purchase X amount of Citi shares at $20 a share. This will put a real short squeze and clean many of the greedy short sellers. They will think twice from shorting and creating false rumors in the future. And we will have  more orderly market.

BTW, I don&#039;t own Citi shares.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is clear that rumors and artificial panics are being created and propagated by greedy short sellers. The solution has to respond to this problem. That means, the government must make these short sellers lose some big bucks. Hit them where it hurts! </p>
<p>How do we do that? Let&#8217;s take Citi as an example. Put a tender out there to purchase X amount of Citi shares at $20 a share. This will put a real short squeze and clean many of the greedy short sellers. They will think twice from shorting and creating false rumors in the future. And we will have  more orderly market.</p>
<p>BTW, I don&#8217;t own Citi shares.</p>
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		<title>By: daniel kremsa</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-1545</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[daniel kremsa]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2008 15:41:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-1545</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This may have came up somewhere, but if Citigroup is in such a need of bail out, why is it buying other banks? You know it bought Watchovia last month but you may not know that it is buying banks out of country. It bought a bank in Costa Rica earlier this month and there may be more. 

It seems that they are really abusing the system and make their finances look bad to US while outside of US they are buying others.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This may have came up somewhere, but if Citigroup is in such a need of bail out, why is it buying other banks? You know it bought Watchovia last month but you may not know that it is buying banks out of country. It bought a bank in Costa Rica earlier this month and there may be more. </p>
<p>It seems that they are really abusing the system and make their finances look bad to US while outside of US they are buying others.</p>
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		<title>By: Hanstaruna Invest Tools</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-1541</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Hanstaruna Invest Tools]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2008 12:54:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-1541</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In my view, Citibank bailout has done because it would boost up investor confidence in financial market.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In my view, Citibank bailout has done because it would boost up investor confidence in financial market.</p>
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		<title>By: Alex Jones' Prison Planet: The truth will set you free!</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-1540</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Jones' Prison Planet: The truth will set you free!]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2008 12:08:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-1540</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Post financial writer James Kwak:    &#8220;The third goal should have been getting a good deal for the U.S. taxpayer, but instead [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Post financial writer James Kwak:    &#8220;The third goal should have been getting a good deal for the U.S. taxpayer, but instead [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Phawker &#187; Blog Archive &#187; WORTH REPEATING: My Life In The Ghost Of Bush or The Best Way To Rob A Bank Is To Own One</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-1535</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Phawker &#187; Blog Archive &#187; WORTH REPEATING: My Life In The Ghost Of Bush or The Best Way To Rob A Bank Is To Own One]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2008 07:05:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-1535</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] In addition, the plan is arbitrary and cannot possibly set an expectation for future deals. In particular, by saying that the government will back some of Citi’s assets but not others, it doesn’t even establish a principle that can be followed in future bailouts. In effect, the message to the market was and has been: “We will protect some (unnamed) large banks from failing, but we won’t tell you how and we’ll decide at the last minute.)” As long as that’s the message, investors will continue to worry about all U.S. banks. MORE [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] In addition, the plan is arbitrary and cannot possibly set an expectation for future deals. In particular, by saying that the government will back some of Citi’s assets but not others, it doesn’t even establish a principle that can be followed in future bailouts. In effect, the message to the market was and has been: “We will protect some (unnamed) large banks from failing, but we won’t tell you how and we’ll decide at the last minute.)” As long as that’s the message, investors will continue to worry about all U.S. banks. MORE [...]</p>
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		<title>By: David Wake</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-1522</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Wake]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2008 01:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-1522</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Congratulations on being recommended by The Economist! http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2008/11/link_exchange_75.cfm]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Congratulations on being recommended by The Economist! <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2008/11/link_exchange_75.cfm" rel="nofollow">http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2008/11/link_exchange_75.cfm</a></p>
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		<title>By: Citibank Bailout at tvanderwell on SmartHippo.com</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-1516</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Citibank Bailout at tvanderwell on SmartHippo.com]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:26:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-1516</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Kwak says the bailout is &#8220;Weak, Arbitrary, Incomprehensible.&#8221; I think he has it right:  Citigroup Bailout: Weak, Arbitrary, Incomprehensible: According to the Wall Street Journal, the deal is done. Here are the terms. In short: (a) Citi [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Kwak says the bailout is &#8220;Weak, Arbitrary, Incomprehensible.&#8221; I think he has it right:  Citigroup Bailout: Weak, Arbitrary, Incomprehensible: According to the Wall Street Journal, the deal is done. Here are the terms. In short: (a) Citi [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Tom K</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-1514</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom K]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 18:46:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-1514</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[JAMES - Thanks for the in depth explanation.  

Tom Krebsbach]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JAMES &#8211; Thanks for the in depth explanation.  </p>
<p>Tom Krebsbach</p>
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		<title>By: Monday links: banks are different &#171; Abnormal Returns</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-1512</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Monday links: banks are different &#171; Abnormal Returns]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 17:39:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-1512</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] 24Nov08    Citigroup (C) gets a (lenient) lifeline.  (breakingviews, Market Movers, The Baseline Scenario, Crossing Wall Street, Economist&#8217;s View, Big [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] 24Nov08    Citigroup (C) gets a (lenient) lifeline.  (breakingviews, Market Movers, The Baseline Scenario, Crossing Wall Street, Economist&#8217;s View, Big [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Wonk Room &#187; Citigroup Bailout: &#8216;A Lousy Deal For Taxpayers&#8217;</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-1511</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Wonk Room &#187; Citigroup Bailout: &#8216;A Lousy Deal For Taxpayers&#8217;]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 17:27:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-1511</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] to &#8220;We will protect some (unnamed) large banks from failing, but we won’t tell you how and we’ll decide at the last minute. As long as that’s the message, investors will continue to worry about all U.S. [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] to &#8220;We will protect some (unnamed) large banks from failing, but we won’t tell you how and we’ll decide at the last minute. As long as that’s the message, investors will continue to worry about all U.S. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Geoffrey Morton-Haworth</title>
		<link>http://baselinescenario.com/2008/11/24/citigroup-bailout-weak-arbitrary-incomprehensible/#comment-1509</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Geoffrey Morton-Haworth]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 16:48:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baselinescenario.wordpress.com/?p=1376#comment-1509</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There was a relevant conversation on Sunday’s CNN GPS between Fareed Zakaria and Niall Ferguson:
“ZAKARIA: So, what do we do, Niall? Because you&#039;re right. The bank bailout hasn&#039;t worked. They&#039;ve used $350 billion. It seems as though it just isn&#039;t enough capital.

“FERGUSON: I think it&#039;s not been enough, because the losses are still much bigger than anybody&#039;s acknowledged. If you figure out how much has been lost -- the Bank of England came up with a ballpark figure for the global financial system of $2.8 trillion. Well, the write-downs that have been acknowledged so far are a fraction of that.

“So, part of the problem is the banks don&#039;t trust one another, because they know that there are many more bodies buried out there than have yet been exhumed.”

If part of the problem is bank trust, then the core of that problem is lack of transparency. As Neil Rackham puts it “the deeper you see, the more you trust”. Conversely, the less you see, the less you trust.

Here we go again with &quot;Project Chicken&quot;: nobody owning up about their problem in the hope it will soon be dwarfed by someone else’s much bigger one.

You cannot make people come clean about problems. Attempts to do so generate denial and hostility. Direct challenges will most likely trigger defences and result in greater obfuscation. No force or ultimatum or major argument is going to work. 

All you can do is create an environment where it is safe to talk by listening, by being someone who can be trusted to listen. People have to come to the decision that it is a mistake to continue to cover up problems. Few people can do that in an environment where others insist they were wrong to do so in the first place.  Our first instinct is to protect ourselves. We need a place to go that is secure.

Messengers, traditionally, get shot. So when people start having doubts about keeping silent, provide an alternative. When they call and want to talk don&#039;t be surprised, be supportive. Find out if they feel threatened. Get them to talk about it. What effect is it having on them? Does it make sense?  Don&#039;t use their confusion to flood them with information. You can ask them about the specifics, but realize that they have a lot to think about. It can take some time. Give them space. Let them ask for information or find out themselves. 

It is inner conflict that overcomes conspiracies of silence. If people want to talk, get them talking. Have them describe their experiences, good and bad. Talk helps if the listener is non-judgmental. These kinds of discussions – getting people to think about what they have experienced and observed as compared to what they have been taught and led to believe – are the key to breaking the spell they are under. 

This is all very well on a one-on-one basis but how do you create an environment that is safe to talk on a grand scale? Well, that’s what my web-based groupware, a Yala, is about.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There was a relevant conversation on Sunday’s CNN GPS between Fareed Zakaria and Niall Ferguson:<br />
“ZAKARIA: So, what do we do, Niall? Because you&#8217;re right. The bank bailout hasn&#8217;t worked. They&#8217;ve used $350 billion. It seems as though it just isn&#8217;t enough capital.</p>
<p>“FERGUSON: I think it&#8217;s not been enough, because the losses are still much bigger than anybody&#8217;s acknowledged. If you figure out how much has been lost &#8212; the Bank of England came up with a ballpark figure for the global financial system of $2.8 trillion. Well, the write-downs that have been acknowledged so far are a fraction of that.</p>
<p>“So, part of the problem is the banks don&#8217;t trust one another, because they know that there are many more bodies buried out there than have yet been exhumed.”</p>
<p>If part of the problem is bank trust, then the core of that problem is lack of transparency. As Neil Rackham puts it “the deeper you see, the more you trust”. Conversely, the less you see, the less you trust.</p>
<p>Here we go again with &#8220;Project Chicken&#8221;: nobody owning up about their problem in the hope it will soon be dwarfed by someone else’s much bigger one.</p>
<p>You cannot make people come clean about problems. Attempts to do so generate denial and hostility. Direct challenges will most likely trigger defences and result in greater obfuscation. No force or ultimatum or major argument is going to work. </p>
<p>All you can do is create an environment where it is safe to talk by listening, by being someone who can be trusted to listen. People have to come to the decision that it is a mistake to continue to cover up problems. Few people can do that in an environment where others insist they were wrong to do so in the first place.  Our first instinct is to protect ourselves. We need a place to go that is secure.</p>
<p>Messengers, traditionally, get shot. So when people start having doubts about keeping silent, provide an alternative. When they call and want to talk don&#8217;t be surprised, be supportive. Find out if they feel threatened. Get them to talk about it. What effect is it having on them? Does it make sense?  Don&#8217;t use their confusion to flood them with information. You can ask them about the specifics, but realize that they have a lot to think about. It can take some time. Give them space. Let them ask for information or find out themselves. </p>
<p>It is inner conflict that overcomes conspiracies of silence. If people want to talk, get them talking. Have them describe their experiences, good and bad. Talk helps if the listener is non-judgmental. These kinds of discussions – getting people to think about what they have experienced and observed as compared to what they have been taught and led to believe – are the key to breaking the spell they are under. </p>
<p>This is all very well on a one-on-one basis but how do you create an environment that is safe to talk on a grand scale? Well, that’s what my web-based groupware, a Yala, is about.</p>
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