In Washington this weekend, there seems to be remarkably little realization of the difficulties already facing emerging markets.  Even if things start to go much better in and for the G7 in the next 48 hours, you cannot easily get back to the situation before Iceland’s banks failed and effectively Iceland was left to its own devices.  And, of course, it is impossible to return to where we were before the series of unfortunate events surrounding Lehman and AIG.

But what exactly does this imply for various kinds of emerging markets?  Countries with clear pre-existing vulnerabilities were already in trouble last week, those with any kind of small cracks in their economic armour are now being tested, and even the apparently invulnerable may come under pressure.  According to our analysis, now published in Forbes.com, this will be a stress test like no other.